Start here if you're new
what it is
Genworth sells long-term care insurance, life insurance, annuities, and mortgage insurance through Enact.
how it gets paid
Last year Genworth Financ made $7.3B in revenue. Long-Term Care Insurance was the main engine at $4.26B, or 58% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 0.1% last year. Q4 2025 revenue was about $1.04B, while quarterly EPS of $0.02 missed a roughly $0.16 consensus — a large earnings miss on a still-cheap multiple.
what just happened
Genworth's latest report was messy: Q4 2025 EPS came in at $0.02 versus about a $0.16 consensus estimate, even as full-year 2025 still printed positive GAAP EPS.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
35/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
~17x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
3.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 48/100 — below average
What they do
Genworth sells long-term care insurance, life insurance, annuities, and mortgage insurance through Enact.
This business wins because old insurance books keep throwing off cash while Enact adds another earnings engine. Long-term care was 58.3% of 2024 revenue, and insurance float (premium money held before claims are paid) → money Genworth can invest before writing checks → gives you time and cash to work with. Leaving is not the point here; harvesting old policies and buying back stock is.
How they make money
$7.3B
annual revenue · their business grew +0.1% last year
Long-Term Care Insurance
$4.26B
Life and Annuities
$1.77B
Enact
$1.23B
Other
$0.04B
The products that matter
legacy long-term care book
Long-Term Care Insurance
Q4 drag on results
this is the book tied to the lawsuit over premium increases, and long-term care issues helped pull Q4 2025 EPS down to $0.02 versus about a $0.16 consensus estimate.
core overhang
mortgage insurance subsidiary
Enact
$1.2B revenue
this $1.2B segment is the cleaner part of the story, and its new $500M share repurchase program says the subsidiary is still generating excess capital.
capital return
aging services platform
CareScout
$25M 2026 target
management wants $25M of 2026 revenue here, which sounds strategic until you remember the parent company already does $7.3B a year.
small option
Key numbers
~17x
trailing p/e
You are paying on the order of 17 times trailing GAAP earnings for a company with an analyst midpoint near $11, versus about $8.99 today.
19.5%
projected earnings growth
Projected earnings growth → how fast profit is expected to rise → the cheap multiple only matters if profit actually grows.
3.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the money running the business → 3.0% says this company is cheap for a reason.
$1.5B
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed that stays on the books for years → at 30% of capital, debt is manageable but not small.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 35 / 100
- long-term debt $1.5B (30% of capital)
- return on equity 8% — $0.08 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in GNW 3 years ago → it's now worth $17,800.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Genworth's latest report was messy: Q4 2025 EPS came in at $0.02 versus about a $0.16 consensus estimate.
Q4 2025 revenue was about $1.04B. The quarter was an earnings miss, not a revenue explosion. Earlier in 2025, third-quarter EPS rose about 50% to $0.30 from $0.20, helped by a lower tax rate and fewer diluted shares.
~$1.04B
revenue (Q4)
$0.02
eps
~88%
below est.
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was EPS of $0.02 versus about a $0.16 consensus — roughly an 88% shortfall versus expectations — because cheap stocks stay cheap when investors stop trusting the quarter.
-
genworth financial posted strong bottom-line figures in the third quarter of 2025.
-
earnings per share surged 50%, to $0.30, compared to last year's $0.20 total. (that followed a disappointing first-half performance.) the major improvement was attributed, to some extent, to higher revenues, supported partially by a rise in premiums and net investment income.
-
another plus was a drop in the company's effective income tax rate.
-
a lower number of diluted shares outstanding also helped.if there are no big setbacks during the fourth quarter, it appears that full-year profits will end up in the vicinity of $0.75 per share.
-
this would show a 7% increase from 2024's $0.70 figure.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is adverse outcomes from long-term care premium litigation.
med
Long-term care premium litigation
The case targets the business for raising premiums without warning. This is not abstract regulatory noise. It goes straight at trust, pricing, and the part of Genworth already causing earnings volatility.
If the company loses flexibility on pricing, the legacy book stays a drag longer than investors want.
med
Earnings that refuse to stay clean
Q4 2025 EPS landed at $0.02 versus about a $0.16 consensus estimate, and earnings predictability sits at 35 / 100. In human-speak: you should expect more quarters where one business line overwhelms the rest of the story.
Stocks with messy earnings do not keep premium narratives for long.
med
New initiatives are still tiny
CareScout's 2026 target is $25M. Genworth's revenue base is $7.3B. That means the future-facing platform amounts to about 0.3% of the current business.
If the legacy lines wobble, CareScout is not large enough to catch the fall.
The long-term care book already helped drive Q4 EPS down to $0.02 versus about a $0.16 consensus, and the replacement growth story still targets just $25M on a $7.3B base.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
Q1 2026 earnings on May 6, 2026
After a roughly 88% EPS shortfall versus consensus, the next report matters more than usual. You want to see whether the long-term care drag cools down or keeps owning the quarter.
legal
Long-term care lawsuit updates
Watch for settlements, rulings, or disclosure changes tied to premium notices. That is the cleanest window into whether the legacy risk is shrinking.
target
CareScout's $25M revenue goal
This is the number attached to management's newer story. If it slips, the growth angle gets even harder to sell.
flow
Institutional selling streak
Institutions have been net sellers for three straight quarters. If that flips, sentiment is changing. If it does not, the market is still voting for patience over enthusiasm.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
35 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not trust the quarter-to-quarter earnings stream to behave.
risk rank
3
that places GNW in the middle of the pack on overall risk — not fragile, not clean.
price stability
35 / 100
the stock does not trade like a bunker. You should expect more movement than the business quality would normally justify.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 160 buyers vs. 163 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.3B shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$7
$14
$9
current price
$11
target midpoint · +22% from current · 3-5yr high: $10 (+10% · 3% ann'l return)
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