Start here if you're new
what it is
Graco makes pumps, spray guns, meters, and valves that move and apply fluids for factories and builders.
how it gets paid
Last year Graco made $2.2B in revenue. Industrial/Automotive was the main engine at $1.03B, or 47% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 5.8% last year. The latest reported quarter (Q3 2025) was roughly in line to slightly light on EPS versus consensus, while YTD sales still grew ~5% — execution through a weak contractor backdrop.
what just happened
Q3 2025: ~$0.73 EPS vs ~$0.74 expected; net sales ~$543M (+~5% vs. prior year). YTD net sales through Q3 ~$1.64B.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
90/100 earnings predictability — results usually land near models
27.8x trailing p/e — premium for a high-margin industrial
1.5% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
16.5% return on capital — solid, not flashy
xvary composite: 73/100 — average
What they do
Graco makes pumps, spray guns, meters, and valves that move and apply fluids for factories and builders.
Graco sells the tools that move, spray, and meter fluids. You keep paying because replacing them is painful, and 46% of sales already come from outside the U.S. The deadpan part: a 35.0% operating margin means Graco keeps 35 cents of every sales dollar before tax and interest.
How they make money
$2.2B
annual revenue · their business grew +5.8% last year
Industrial/Automotive
$1.03B
Contractor
$0.64B
Process
$0.53B
The products that matter
industrial fluid-handling equipment
Pumps, Sprayers and Dispensing Systems
$2.2B revenue base
this is the whole business as presented on the page: $2.2B in annual revenue growing 5.8%, split across Industrial/Automotive, Contractor, and Process — concentration and cycle exposure sit in those three buckets.
core
Key numbers
35.0%
operating margin
Graco keeps 35 cents before interest and taxes on every sales dollar. That is why a plain industrial company gets a premium multiple.
16.5%
return on capital
For every dollar tied up in the business, Graco earns 16.5 cents in operating profit. That is a clean way to measure how hard the machine works.
$93
target price
VL's 18-month target sits 11% above the current $83.45 price. The market is not screaming bargain, but it is not pricing disaster either.
27.8x
trailing p/e
You are paying ~27.8× trailing earnings for a business that grew sales ~5.8% last year. That is a full multiple for a steady machine.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 90 / 100
- net profit margin 24.3% — keeps 24 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 16% — $0.16 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A with balance sheet grade and risk rank standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in GGG 3 years ago → it's now worth $13,050.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
Q3 2025 recap
Q3 2025 EPS ~$0.73 vs ~$0.74 expected — roughly in line; sales ~$543M (+~5% vs. prior year).
Nine-month 2025 net sales were ~$1.64B (YTD through Q3), also up ~5% vs. prior year. Gross margin stayed in the low-50% range while tariffs and softer contractor volumes stayed in the commentary. Full-year operating margin on the page (~35%) is a company-level lens; Q3 operating earnings were closer to ~28% of sales.
~$543M
Q3 net sales
~$0.73
Q3 EPS
~$1.64B
YTD net sales
the number that mattered
The 10.0% EPS beat mattered because it showed Graco can still earn through a weak backdrop.
-
weak construction markets continue to weigh on graco's results.
-
high mortgage rates in north america have led to slow residential home sales.
-
typically, real estate turnover leads to painting, prior or after transactions.
-
the painting contractor business, where the company sells dispensing products, represented just less than half of total sales in the third quarter, and north america represents more than 70% of the division.
-
volumes in the segment declined 3% vs. prior year in the americas.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is tariff-driven input cost pressure.
med
tariff-driven input cost pressure
Management has already flagged trade policy as a real issue. In a $2.2B equipment business, higher input costs do not need to be dramatic to start leaning on profitability.
A ~24% net margin looks great until costs move against you. If margins compress, a 27.8x earnings multiple stops looking forgiving.
med
industrial demand cooling
The business grew 5.8% last year. Some data feeds still show a ~$2B FY2026 revenue line versus ~$2.2B LTM — treat that as stale or bear-case screening noise unless your source reconciles it to guidance.
If revenue stalls while the stock keeps its premium multiple, your return gets squeezed from both directions — slower growth and less room for valuation expansion.
med
new product and connected-equipment execution
The page points to Pulse Mobile as a growth test. That is promising, but the data here is thin, which means you should treat it as optional upside rather than something already proven in the numbers.
When a stock already trades at 27.8x trailing earnings, unproven growth initiatives need to become real earnings, not just conference-demo material.
You own a ~$14B company with a ~24% net margin. If tariffs or weaker demand chip away at that margin while growth cools, the premium valuation does the rest.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
valuation
whether $3.25 EPS still holds
At $83.45, the stock already assumes steady execution. If the $3.25 estimate gets revised down, the forward multiple is less friendly than it looks.
risk
tariff commentary on the next call
The page already identifies trade policy as the top threat. Listen for whether management says costs are easing, sticking, or getting worse.
calendar
next earnings release
This is where you find out whether the recent ~$0.73 Q3 print was noise or the start of a softer EPS path.
trend
whether growth stays above the current 5.8% pace
Graco does not need hypergrowth. It does need enough revenue growth to justify being priced like a premium industrial rather than a merely good one.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts think the stock is behaving normally, not sending a strong short-term signal.
risk profile
above average
stability score 2 — safer than roughly 80% of stocks. This is the kind of ranking you get from a business that usually keeps its footing.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the tape is not screaming leadership right now. Quality business, less exciting chart.
earnings predictability
90 / 100
management has earned the market's trust. The numbers usually land close to expectations, which is part of why the multiple stays elevated.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 314 buyers vs. 309 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$71
$114
$83.45
current price
$93
target midpoint · +11% from current · range high: $114 (~+37% from current)
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The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
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