Start here if you're new
what it is
GFL picks up trash, moves it, recycles some of it, and gets paid every month to make your garbage disappear.
how it gets paid
Last year GFL made ~$5.0B in revenue. About 60% came from U.S. operations and ~40% from Canada—some disclosures round the U.S. share closer to ~67% for a given period.
what just happened
Last reported EPS came in at $0.15 versus a $0.13 estimate, a 15.38% beat.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
25/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
95.5x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
0.2% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
6.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 53/100 — below average
What they do
GFL picks up trash, moves it, recycles some of it, and gets paid every month to make your garbage disappear.
Trash is local, heavy, and annoying. That helps the operator with the closest trucks, transfer stations, and landfills. GFL already gets about 60% of revenue from the U.S. and 40% from Canada, according to the company profile, so your garbage route is part of a big network that is hard to copy.
How they make money
$5.0B
annual revenue
U.S. operations
60% of revenue
up
Canadian operations
40% of revenue
flat
Renewable natural gas projects
part of GFL Renewables
up
Environmental Services unit
sold in 3/25
dn
The products that matter
picks up contracted waste
Collection
part of a $5.0B revenue base
This is core to the $5.0B business, but this snapshot does not tell you how much collection contributes on its own. You know it matters. You do not get the mix.
core service
moves waste between sites
Transportation
supports 28.5% operating margin
Transportation keeps the network moving, but the page gives you no segment revenue, no unit economics, and no growth figure. All you have is the companywide 28.5% operating margin.
data thin
sorts and consolidates volume
Transfer
inside a $5.0B operator
Transfer assets matter because they tie routes together, but this page stops at the company total. You are being asked to trust the network without seeing the segment math.
asset glue
Key numbers
95.5x
trailing p/e
Price-to-earnings ratio → how many dollars you pay for $1 of profit → you are paying a luxury multiple for a basic service.
6.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested in the business → the business earns okay returns, not elite ones.
$5.2B
long-term debt
Debt → money owed for past expansion → acquisitions look smart until refinancing and integration show up together.
28.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → money left after running the business → the core routes look solid even if bottom-line earnings still wobble.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 70 / 100
- long-term debt $5.2B (25% of capital)
- net profit margin 8.0% — keeps 8 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 8% — $0.08 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in GFL 3 years ago → it's now worth $13,460.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Last reported EPS came in at $0.15 versus a $0.13 estimate, a 15.38% beat.
That beat matters because GFL's annual EPS only turned positive in 2025 at $0.45 after a 2024 loss of $1.48 per share. The quiet part: a stock at 95.5x earnings needs beats to feel normal.
$0.15
reported eps
$0.13
eps estimate
15.38%
surprise
the number that mattered
The 15.38% EPS beat mattered because the market is already pricing GFL like earnings misses are optional.
-
gfl environmental recently relocated its corporate headquarters from canada to the united states.by domiciling in the u.s., the company intends to eliminate its status as a foreign issuer, which has historically constrained institutional ownership. in addition, this move is expected to improve eligibility for major u.s. indices, including the s&p 500. management believes this shift should help unlock shareholder value and narrow the valuation gap between gfl and u.s. Based peers, such as waste management and republic services.
-
roughly 67% of total revenue is already generated in the u.s.the new headquarters will be located in miami beach, florida, while the jurisdiction of incorporation will remain ontario, canada.
-
the trash hauler probably closed 2025 with a solid share profit.
-
core pricing likely grew at a mid-single-digit pace, while acquisition activity remained active.
-
the company has invested roughly cad$300 million during the past year.in addition, gfl partially divested its environmental services business earlier in 2025, as part of its transition toward a pure-play solid waste model.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk is 95.5x trailing earnings on a 6.5% return on capital.
med
the multiple is doing a lot of the work
A 95.5x trailing p/e paired with 25/100 earnings predictability leaves little margin for disappointment. You are paying for a smoother future than the record on this page shows.
If earnings wobble again, the premium can compress fast even if the underlying business stays intact.
med
$5.2B of long-term debt limits flexibility
The balance sheet grades at B+, not A. Debt is 25% of capital, which is manageable for a steady operator but still matters when the stock needs clean execution.
Leverage does not break the story today. It does make mistakes more expensive.
med
growth has to arrive with better returns
The page points to revenue rising from $5.0B to $7.0B by FY2029. If return on capital stays around 6.5%, more scale will look bigger, not better.
At $42.99, the 3–5 year midpoint is only $49. That leaves less than $6 of modeled upside unless the economics improve.
This is a steady service business with ordinary returns and a premium stock multiple. That combination works until it doesn't.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
95.5x trailing p/e versus 6.5% return on capital
That gap is the whole argument on this stock. If operating quality improves, the premium holds. If it doesn't, the valuation story gets thin fast.
risk
$5.2B of debt with a B+ balance sheet
You do not need a balance-sheet crisis for debt to matter. You only need a quarter where execution slips and investors stop paying a premium.
trend
institutional selling has lasted 2 quarters
140 buyers versus 142 sellers in 3Q2025 is close, but close still counts. You want to see the next filing turn that direction around.
calendar
watch whether $1.10 EPS and $7B revenue stay on track
Those two estimates are carrying the medium-term case. Miss either one and the $49 midpoint starts to look generous.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
25 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not view this earnings stream as especially clean or easy to model.
price stability
70 / 100
The stock has been steadier than the fundamentals look. Stability is nice. Paying too much for it is less nice.
risk rank
3
That points to average-to-better safety, not premium safety. You are still relying on execution to justify the valuation.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 140 buyers vs. 142 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.3B shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$36
$62
$43
current price
$49
target midpoint · +14% from current · 3-5yr high: $65 (+50% · 11% ann'l return)
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