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what it is
Geron sells a blood-cancer drug and is trying to stretch that same molecule into more disease uses.
how it gets paid
Last year Geron made $77M in revenue. RYTELO in lower-risk MDS was the main engine at $77M, or 100% of sales.
what just happened
$136M in latest-quarter revenue proved demand exists, but Geron still posted a -$0.08 EPS loss.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
50/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
-$0.27 fy2024 eps est
$77M fy2024 rev est
1.1 beta
xvary composite: 41/100 — below average
What they do
Geron sells a blood-cancer drug and is trying to stretch that same molecule into more disease uses.
Geron's edge is simple: RYTELO is already on the market, and the company says it is the first and only FDA-approved telomerase inhibitor. Plain English: doctors treating this niche blood-cancer setting have one approved drug in this class today. So what: with just 229 employees, your bet is concentrated around one differentiated asset, not a sprawling pipeline.
How they make money
$77M
annual revenue
RYTELO in lower-risk MDS
$77M
+54.5%
Imetelstat in R/R myelofibrosis
$0M
flat
Other hematologic malignancy studies
$0M
flat
Legacy non-product revenue
$0M
flat
The products that matter
treats lower-risk mds
RYTELO
$184M · 100% of 2025 revenue
it's the entire commercial story today. $184M in 2025 sales grew 139%, but one asset also means one point of failure.
entire business
Key numbers
$77M
2024 sales est.
That is the full-year revenue estimate for 2024. Plain English: Geron moved from pure research story to real sales story. So what: the market now judges execution, not just science.
-$0.27
2024 EPS est.
Geron is still losing money. Plain English: each share is expected to lose 27 cents this year. So what: growth has to keep outrunning cash burn.
$231M
long-term debt
Debt is 19% of capital. Plain English: leverage is present but not crushing. So what: the real issue is still commercial traction, not balance-sheet collapse.
10/100
price stability
That is very low. Plain English: this stock moves around a lot. So what: even if you are right on the business, your path will look stupid for stretches.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 10 / 100
- long-term debt $231M (19% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for GERN right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
losses widened
$136M in latest-quarter revenue proved demand exists, but Geron still posted a -$0.08 EPS loss.
EDGAR shows latest-quarter revenue of $136M, up 188% vs. prior year. EPS was -$0.08, and the quarterly history still shows a business losing money even as product sales ramp.
$136M
revenue
-$0.08
eps
188%
vs. last year revenue growth
the number that mattered
$136M matters because it says the launch is real; the problem is Geron still has to turn that revenue into durable profit.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is RYTELO adoption stalling before the cost structure catches up.
med
single-product concentration
100% of 2025 revenue came from RYTELO. there is no second asset absorbing shocks if adoption slows, safety questions emerge, or a competing therapy changes physician behavior.
impact: this risk touches the entire $184M revenue base because the company has no other commercial product.
med
margin and reimbursement pressure
gross-to-net deductions rose to 17.7% in 2025 from 14.5% in 2024, and management expects them to remain in the high teens to low 20s in 2026. that means headline sales growth does not fully translate into reported revenue.
impact: a higher gross-to-net drag directly weakens the path from $220M–$240M guided revenue to anything resembling profitability.
med
cost cuts that hit execution
geron reduced staff by roughly 33% in late 2025. cost discipline makes sense with a -45.41% profit margin. the risk is obvious too: a leaner organization has less room for commercial mistakes.
impact: if the savings come with slower prescription growth, the company ends up smaller and still unprofitable.
this is not a diversified biotech story. it is a $1B market cap company asking one drug to grow fast enough to outrun a -45.41% margin and a reimbursement drag already running at 17.7%.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
the low end of guidance: $220M
that is the first real test for 2026. if geron cannot clear the low end after posting $184M in 2025 revenue, the launch narrative loses altitude fast.
risk
gross-to-net staying in the high teens to low 20s
discounts and rebates already moved from 14.5% to 17.7%. if that keeps climbing, more prescriptions do not mean as much as they should.
calendar
the next earnings report
you want to see two things at once: sales moving toward the 2026 guide and losses narrowing from the Q4 2025 run rate. one without the other only solves half the problem.
trend
whether the late-2025 layoffs improved efficiency
roughly one-third of staff was cut. if operating expense falls without hurting commercial momentum, the turnaround looks credible. if not, it was just a smaller burn on the way to the same problem.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
50 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not have a clean read on the earnings path yet. one product, a fresh launch, and a big loss profile make this inherently noisy.
beta
1.1
beta measures how much a stock tends to move with the market. 1.1 means roughly market-like trading swings. the business risk is more dramatic than that number suggests.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for GERN is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$2
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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