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what it is
Greif makes the industrial containers, paper packaging, and logistics services that move chemicals, food, and factory goods around the world.
how it gets paid
Last year Gef made $3.9B in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 460.8% last year. The December quarter brought in $995M of revenue.
what just happened
Greif's latest quarter looked stable on sales, but the stock had to digest an ugly earnings reset to $0.01 per share in FY2025 Q4.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
60/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
36.6x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
3.2% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
8.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 49/100 — below average
What they do
Greif makes the industrial containers, paper packaging, and logistics services that move chemicals, food, and factory goods around the world.
This is a scale business hiding in plain sight. Greif has about 12,000 employees and sells the plain stuff your supply chain cannot skip: steel drums, plastic drums, fiber drums, bulk containers, corrugated boxes, and logistics. Industrial packaging sounds generic, but repeat orders and plant networks create switching costs (switching costs → changing suppliers is painful and risky → so what: customers stick when a missed shipment can halt production).
How they make money
$3.9B
annual revenue · their business grew +460.8% last year
total revenue
$3.9B
+460.8%
The products that matter
manufactures industrial containers
Industrial Packaging
$3.9B revenue
it's the core business at $3.9B in annual revenue, but it only keeps 3.8% as net profit. That means cost discipline matters almost as much as volume.
3.8% net margin
Key numbers
36.6x
trailing p/e
P/E → price-to-earnings ratio → so what: you are paying 36.6 years of trailing profits for a business with a 4.3% operating margin.
4.3%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business, before interest and taxes → so what: Greif keeps just 4.3 cents from each sales dollar.
8.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the money invested in the business → so what: 8.0% is decent, but not rich enough to justify a luxury multiple.
3.2%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → annual cash payout as a percent of stock price → so what: the income pays you to wait, but it does not fix a stretched valuation.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 75 / 100
- long-term debt $791M (19% of capital)
- net profit margin 4.6% — keeps 5 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 7% — $0.07 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in GEF 3 years ago → it's now worth $12,230.
The index would have given you $14,540.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Greif's latest quarter looked stable on sales, but the stock had to digest an ugly earnings reset to $0.01 per share in FY2025 Q4.
The December quarter brought in $995M of revenue, down 2% vs. prior year and right in line with expectations. Gross margin was 20.4%, but the bigger issue is how FY2025 EPS collapsed to $2.00 from $4.64 in FY2024.
$995M
revenue
$0.48
eps
20.4%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The number that matters is FY2025 EPS of $2.00, because the stock's 36.6x trailing multiple looks expensive unless earnings rebound hard.
-
greif reported mixed fiscal first-quarter financial results (year ends september 30th).
-
december-period revenues clocked in at $995 million, exactly in line with our expectations.
-
note that the sizable vs. prior year decline can be attributed mainly to recent business divestitures (containerboard and timberlands).
-
on the earnings front, greif posted adjusted net income of $0.48 per share.
-
the figure improved nearly 23% vs. prior year, but missed our mark by $0.17.even so, the company is making solid progress on cost-reduction efforts in manufacturing and operating expenses, with annual savings now in the realm of $65 million. on balance, we are leaving intact our fiscal 2026 top-line call, at $4.4 billion, but are trimming $0.20 from our bottom-line estimate, to $3.40 per share.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk here is the post-divestiture revenue reset — a smaller Greif still has to prove it can grow into the numbers the market is using.
med
post-divestiture revenue reset
The latest quarter was $995M, and management still points to $4.4B for fiscal 2026. If the smaller portfolio cannot bridge that gap, the "temporary reset" story gets harder to defend.
A miss against the top-line target would leave a 36.6x trailing multiple looking even less comfortable.
med
thin margins leave little cushion
GEF keeps 3.8% of revenue as net profit. That is a thin buffer, and the latest quarter already showed it with adjusted EPS missing by $0.17.
In a low-margin model, small cost misses or weak pricing can hit earnings fast.
low
balance sheet is fine, not forgiving
Long-term debt sits at $791M, or 19% of capital. That is manageable with a B+ balance sheet, but it is not the kind of setup that lets management miss for several quarters without questions.
The balance sheet can absorb normal volatility. It does not erase execution risk.
A $3.9B business with a 3.8% net margin and $791M in long-term debt does not have much room for sloppy execution.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next quarter revenue pace
The latest quarter was $995M. You want to see that number move up if the $4.4B fiscal 2026 target is going to stay credible.
trend
cleaner comps after divestitures
Management blamed the decline from a year ago mainly on sold businesses. Watch when that excuse starts disappearing from the quarter-to-quarter story.
metric
$3.40 EPS estimate
At today's price, the forward case leans heavily on this number. Another trim would change the valuation conversation fast.
risk
$65M cost savings quality
Savings matter more when net margin is 3.8%. You want these efficiencies to hold in reported earnings, not just in management commentary.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think this may lag from here unless the post-sale reset starts looking cleaner.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this is not a bunker stock, but it is not a chaos stock either.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — the tape looks better than the fundamentals story. That can help, until estimates move the other way.
earnings predictability
60 / 100
good enough to model, weak enough that a $0.17 miss still shows up.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
79 buyers vs. 87 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 23.8M shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$39
$88
$73
current price
$64
target midpoint · 13% from current · 3-5yr high: $130 (+80% · 18% ann'l return)
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