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what it is
Golden Entertainment runs Nevada casinos, local taverns, slot routes, and hotel rooms tied to gambling and local traffic.
how it gets paid
Last year Golden made $645M in revenue. Casino resorts was the main engine at ~$354M, or ~55% of sales (implied from mix bars).
what just happened
~$503M in a feed labeled “quarter” cannot be the same GAAP net-revenue line as ~$645M FY—four quarters would blow past the annual. Treat that headline as mislabeled period (often TTM or a gross operations line) and anchor segment mix to the $645M bridge above. Consensus still showed an estimate miss on the print we used.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
15/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
108.8x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
4.9% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
7.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 52/100 — below average
What they do
Golden Entertainment runs Nevada casinos, local taverns, slot routes, and hotel rooms tied to gambling and local traffic.
This is a local habit business. You are not casually recreating 8 Nevada casino resorts, 72 taverns, 5,500 slots, 97 table games, and 6,000 hotel rooms. Scale moat (physical footprint → hard to copy → steadier customer traffic) is the whole case.
How they make money
$645M
annual revenue
casino resorts
$354M
flat
taverns and casual dining
$129M
flat
slot and table gaming
$97M
dn
hotel rooms and lodging
$65M
dn
The products that matter
Las Vegas Strip casino
The Strat Hotel, Casino & SkyPod
one Strip anchor
It is the best-known asset in an eight-casino portfolio, but it still depends on demand spilling down the Strip. When overflow demand fades, this property feels it.
flagship property
regional gaming properties
Nevada Locals Casinos
8 casinos
These casinos tie your investment to Nevada spending patterns. The annual bridge above shows casino resorts flat—the ~5.2% vs. prior year decline cited in risk copy is a quarterly read, not that row.
core exposure
local tavern gaming
PT's Taverns
72 taverns
The tavern network adds repeat local traffic, but at ~20% of the revenue mix on this page, it is too small to offset casino weakness on its own.
secondary engine
Key numbers
108.8x
trailing p/e
P/E (price-to-earnings → how much you pay for each dollar of profit → this stock already prices in a comeback) is the whole debate here.
$417M
long-term debt
That debt equals 37% of capital, so the balance sheet is decent, but you are not looking at a debt-free operator.
4.9%
dividend yield
Yield (cash paid to shareholders → direct income to you → you are getting paid while waiting for profits to recover) is real support.
23.0%
operating margin
Operating margin (profit after running the business → tells you basic earning power → the assets can still throw off cash when traffic holds).
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 25 / 100
- long-term debt $417M (37% of capital)
- net profit margin ~1.0% on this feed — ~$0.25 FY EPS on ~$645M revenue implies thin net income; rounded
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in GDEN 3 years ago → it's now worth $7,920.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
A feed shows ~$503M labeled like a quarter, which does not reconcile as GAAP net revenue against the ~$645M FY bridge (four quarters would exceed the year). Consensus still says the last print missed.
Treat ~$503M as mislabeled period (often TTM or gross operations) until the filing matches. EPS is messy too: one feed near $0.09 vs street near -$0.33 vs about a $0.17 estimate—line up GAAP vs adjusted and the exact quarter.
~$503M
rev (feed · verify)
~-$0.33
eps (street q)
~$0.09
eps (alt feed)
the number that mattered
The number that matters is $0.25 in full-year 2025 EPS, because 108.8x trailing earnings leaves almost no room for another weak year.
-
at the time of the announcement the deal was worth $30 per share and was a 41% premium to the prior closing price of golden entertainment's stock price.recently, vici's stock has fallen slightly to $27.60, implying a total transaction value of $27.65 per share.
-
although business has been challenging for golden in the past year with lower visitation to las vegas, free cash flow was still healthy and despite the premium, the deal does not seem like a particularly robust price for shareholders.that said, a `go-shop` period was provided through early december and no other offers were forthcoming.
-
the transactions are expected to be completed by mid-2026 after customary regulatory approvals.
-
recent results have been lackluster.
-
most of golden's casinos cater to nevada locals and depend on the regional economy.also, its main property on the strip, the strat, generally benefits from overflow demand, which rarely exists in the current economic climate.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
The #1 risk here is the $1.16B VICI transaction failing or slipping past mid-2026 because the stock is leaning on that event more than on the underlying business.
high
VICI deal failure or delay
The $1.16B transaction still needs shareholder approval and regulatory clearance. If it fails, or if the mid-2026 target slips, the main reason many investors are here disappears.
this is the catalyst case
high
Nevada demand stays soft
Most of the portfolio serves Nevada locals, and the latest quarter already showed revenue down ~5.2% vs. prior year on this feed—not the annual segment bridge, which is flatter. If local spending stays weak, better balance-sheet optics will not fix the income statement.
hits casino revenue directly
med
Dividend and debt expectations prove optimistic
A 4.9% yield looks good on paper, but the balance sheet still carries $417M of long-term debt. If proceeds are delayed or cash flow weakens, capital returns become less comfortable.
pressures the income case
med
The implied takeout value moves with VICI stock
The announcement framed the deal near $30 per share. More recently, the implied value was closer to $27.65. That means some of your value proposition can drift even if Golden does nothing wrong.
caps the spread investors see
A failed or delayed close leaves you with a $27.20 stock, a 108.8x trailing p/e, and a core casino business where the latest quarter was still down ~5.2% vs. prior year on this feed.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
catalyst
march 2026 shareholder vote
Golden scheduled a shareholder vote for March 2026 on the $1.16B VICI transaction. That is the first hard checkpoint in the thesis.
risk
mid-2026 close timing
The deal is expected to close in mid-2026 after approvals. If that date slips, patience turns into risk very quickly.
trend
casino revenue trend
The latest reported quarter showed casino revenue down ~5.2% vs. prior year here. You want to see that decline stop getting worse before calling this an operating turnaround.
metric
deal value versus stock price
The implied transaction value moved from roughly $30 per share at announcement to about $27.65 more recently. Keep an eye on that spread. It tells you how much cushion is left.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
15 / 100
A 15 / 100 score means earnings have been hard to forecast. In human-speak, analysts do not trust this business to deliver clean, steady quarters.
risk rank
3
Risk rank 3 is roughly middle of the pack. You are not buying a fortress, but you are not staring at a balance-sheet emergency either.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 74 buyers vs. 90 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 19.3M shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$17
$45
$27
current price
$31
target midpoint · +14% from current · 3-5yr high: $35 (+30% · 10% ann'l return)
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