Start here if you're new
what it is
Greenbrier builds railcars, leases some of them out, and gets paid to keep them running.
how it gets paid
Last year Greenbrier made $3.2B in revenue. New railcar manufacturing was the main engine at $2.24B, or 70% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 8.6% last year. Railcar deliveries of 4,400 units were 27% below the prior year, and backlog was down by 30%.
what just happened
Greenbrier posted $1.14 in EPS, beating the $0.90 estimate, but revenue still fell 19% vs. prior year.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
40/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
8.1x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
2.7% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
8.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 70/100 — average
What they do
Greenbrier builds railcars, leases some of them out, and gets paid to keep them running.
This is a scale business. Greenbrier runs manufacturing, leasing, and service under one roof, which means a customer can order cars, finance them, and maintain them with one vendor. You feel that moat in the backlog: $2.2 billion at 11/30/25, even after deliveries fell 27% and backlog fell 30%, which says demand softened but did not disappear.
How they make money
$3.2B
annual revenue · their business grew -8.6% last year
New railcar manufacturing
$2.24B
19.0%
Railcar refurbishment and parts
$0.45B
8.6%
Wheels, components, and other manufacturing
$0.25B
8.6%
Leasing and fleet management
$0.26B
+3.0%
The products that matter
manufactures freight railcars
Railcar Manufacturing
inside a $3.2B company
this is still the center of gravity. when production slows, the whole story usually loses altitude with it. the page does not break out segment revenue, so you should read manufacturing as the main engine without pretending we have cleaner segment math than we do.
core
leases and manages fleets
Leasing & Services
part of the $3.2B revenue base
this is the steadier piece you want in a cyclical company because leasing revenue tends to be less jumpy than new-build demand. the catch is simple: this page does not include a standalone revenue figure, so the stabilizer story is real but only partly measured here.
stabilizer
supplies parts and maintenance
Wheel & Parts
supports the $3.2B platform
parts and maintenance matter because customers who keep repairing railcars are customers who have not disappeared. that does not turn Greenbrier into a recurring-revenue machine, but it does give you a softer landing than pure manufacturing would.
support
Key numbers
$2.2B
backlog
Backlog is future work already in the queue. In plain English, it is the pile of railcars customers already asked Greenbrier to build.
8.1x
trailing p/e
P/E → price-to-earnings → what you pay for each dollar of profit. At 8.1x, the market is pricing in a cyclical slowdown, not a growth party.
13.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit before interest and taxes → how much of each sales dollar survives the factory. For a heavy industrial business, 13.5% is solid.
$1.6B
long-term debt
Debt is manageable until the cycle turns. With debt equal to 50% of capital, a revenue slump hurts more than it would at a cleaner balance sheet.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 30 / 100
- long-term debt $1.6B (50% of capital)
- net profit margin 5.5% — keeps 6 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 11% — $0.11 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in GBX 3 years ago → it's now worth $17,490.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Greenbrier posted $1.14 in EPS, beating the $0.90 estimate, but revenue still fell 19% vs. prior year.
The company cleared a low bar on profit, with a 26.67% earnings surprise. The bigger story was demand cooling: quarterly revenue fell to $706 million and management coverage says this railcar cycle appears to have peaked.
$706M
revenue
$1.14
eps
14.6%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was the 19% revenue drop, because beating a low EPS estimate does not fix a shrinking top line.
-
the highly cyclical business of producing rail cars appears to have peaked for the current cycle.
-
the company's revenues in the november period fell 19% and were at their lowest first-quarter level in four years.
-
railcar deliveries of 4,400 units were 27% below the prior year, and backlog was down by 30%.
-
however, new orders were only 3% below the prior-year level, indicating that the market may be stabilizing.
-
also, although the value of the new railcar backlog ($2.2 billion) at the end of november was down 37% from the prior year, it was equal to the level of the prior quarter.so, we expect the company will remain strongly profitable over the next two fiscal years with earnings per share of $4.00 and $4.50, respectively. Management is growing the leasing business to reduce the overall cyclicality of the company's earnings stream. while the production of railcars is a highly cyclical and relatively low-margin business, leasing railcars is a much more stable and profitable service.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is railcar demand staying soft while the market prices in improvement anyway.
med
freight weakness hits more than one line item
Revenue already fell 8.6% to $3.2B. If railroads and shippers keep ordering fewer cars, manufacturing slows first. Leasing and parts feel it after. This is one cycle touching multiple revenue streams at once.
impact: you are not isolating one weak segment. you are underwriting the health of the whole rail demand chain.
med
$1.6B of debt narrows the margin for patience
Debt equal to 50% of capital is manageable while the business stays profitable. It looks less friendly if revenue drifts toward the $3B estimate and margins stay thin.
impact: you do not need a balance-sheet crisis for the stock to suffer. you just need the cycle to stay weak longer than expected.
med
4.8% margins leave very little room for a bad quarter
A 4.8% net margin means small misses matter. Input costs, pricing pressure, or lower plant utilization do not need to be dramatic to hurt earnings. Businesses keeping less than a nickel on the dollar rarely get graceful mistakes.
impact: EPS can fall faster than revenue when the cycle turns against you.
Greenbrier's risk profile is specific, not theoretical: $1.6B of debt, 4.8% margins, and a stock above its $47 midpoint target while revenue is still shrinking.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next earnings release
you want to see whether revenue holds up after the $706M quarter. this story gets more credible when the top line stops shrinking, not when one quarter of EPS looks neat.
metric
revenue versus the $3B estimate
the street is modeling a step down from $3.2B to $3B. if Greenbrier lands above that, the recovery argument gets numbers behind it.
trend
railcar demand and freight volumes
this is the upstream signal for everything else. stronger freight trends usually show up in orders before they show up in reported earnings.
risk
debt load versus margin pressure
$1.6B of long-term debt is manageable while profits hold. if 4.8% net margins compress further, the balance sheet stops feeling merely fine and starts feeling tight.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 5%
momentum score 1 is the highest rating. in human-speak, analysts think this stock has unusually strong near-term performance potential even though the operating story is still mixed.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 means typical stock risk. you are not buying a bunker stock, but you are not staring at the weakest balance-sheet tier either.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 says the tape is less convincing than the short-term ranking. welcome to a stock where the valuation story is stronger than the chart.
earnings predictability
40 / 100
40/100 predictability means quarterly numbers can swing around. if you own this, you are owning the cycle with it.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 131 buyers vs. 125 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 30.9M shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$27
$66
$51
current price
$47
target midpoint · 8% from current · 3-5yr high: $85 (+65% · 16% ann'l return)
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