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what it is
Six Flags sells roller coasters, water slides, and resort stays across parks in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.
how it gets paid
Last year Six Flags Entertain made $3.0B in revenue. admissions was the main engine at $0.65B, or 50% of sales.
what just happened
Latest quarter revenue was $438M, but earnings stayed ugly and the turnaround still looks early.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
105.8x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
6.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$0.85 fy2026 eps est
xvary composite: 47/100 — below average
What they do
Six Flags sells roller coasters, water slides, and resort stays across parks in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.
This business wins when your family wants a full-day outing, not another app. Six Flags now spans parks across 17 U.S. states plus Canada and Mexico after the July 2024 merger, which gives it scale in rides, brands, and staffing. Scale → bigger network and shared costs → so what: if management fixes service, more of each ticket dollar can fall to profit, and the operating margin target sits at 28.0%.
How they make money
$3.0B
annual revenue
admissions
$0.65B
food and beverage
$0.26B
merchandise and games
$0.13B
lodging and resorts
$0.13B
other in-park and sponsorship
$0.13B
The products that matter
runs regional theme parks
amusement parks
core business · inside a $3.0B revenue base
this is the center of gravity. the parks generate the $3.0B revenue line, but 6.5% return on capital says those assets are not throwing off rich returns.
core revenue engine
food, merch, parking, extras
in-park spending
not broken out · 7.4% net margin backdrop
the page does not split this out, but it matters. when the business keeps only 7.4 cents of each revenue dollar, every extra dollar spent inside the park pulls more weight.
margin lever
adds warm-weather capacity
water parks
part of the $3.0B base · $5.0B debt backdrop
water parks widen the day-out offer, but they sit under the same balance sheet. on a capital structure carrying $5.0B in long-term debt, extra attendance has to translate into real earnings.
seasonal extender
Key numbers
105.8x
trailing p/e
P/E → stock price divided by past earnings → so what: your downside is real if profit stays near the $0.15 full-year EPS posted for 2025.
$31
18-month target
The 18-month target sits 95% above the $15.87 share price, which tells you this is a turnaround bet, not a stable compounding story.
$5.0B
long-term debt
Debt equals 76% of capital, which means the balance sheet has less room for operating mistakes than the stock chart might suggest.
6.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the money tied up in the business → so what: 6.5% is modest for a company asking you to believe in a merger rebound.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 35 / 100
- long-term debt $5.0B (76% of capital)
- net profit margin 7.4% — keeps 7 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in FUN 3 years ago → it's now worth $3,930.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Latest quarter revenue was $438M, but earnings stayed ugly and the turnaround still looks early.
The latest quarter showed EPS of -$14.99 from EDGAR data, while consensus also flagged a miss with actual EPS of -$0.91 versus a $2.10 estimate. The bigger picture is the same either way: service issues, softer attendance, and weaker guest spending are still hitting results.
$438M
revenue
$14.99
eps
28.0%
operating margin
the number that mattered
Full-year 2025 EPS of $0.15 matters more than any one quarter because it shows just how little profit is supporting a 105.8x trailing multiple.
-
six flags entertainment likely managed to eke out a profit during a difficult 2025.there were several factors that constrained the company’s results through the first three quarters of last year. (the company was scheduled to report fourth-quarter results shortly after we went to press with this issue.) there have been integration issues following the july, 2024 merger with cedar fair.
-
following the combination, park patrons have expressed increased frustration with service levels (and staffing cuts), food concerns, and overall pricing.furthermore, ceo richard zimmerman announced his resignation in august of last year, a critical time for the merger’s transition. what’s more, six flags carries a very heavy debt burden which has made it difficult to move the needle much on the profitability front.
-
the company’s results have also been hurt by reduced attendance and guest-percapita spending.for the full year, we believe that six flags earned $0.15 a share, which would represent a solid improvement from 2024, but a far cry from its more-prosperous times of just a few years ago.
-
further progress should be made in the years ahead, though the company has its work cut out for it.six flags has to work on restoring confidence in its parks, which would lead to better operating results.
-
paying down debt is another priority.earnings per share are projected to hit the $3.50 mark by 2028-2030 based on our proprietary financial model.
source: company earnings report, 2025
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What could go wrong
the top risk is $5.0B of long-term debt on a seasonal regional park portfolio.
med
debt load versus business size
long-term debt is $5.0B, equal to 76% of capital, against a business producing $3.0B in annual revenue.
If operations wobble, leverage stops being a background detail and becomes the whole story for you as a shareholder.
med
earnings quality is thin
earnings predictability is 5/100 and trailing valuation is 105.8x earnings. Small misses can look very large in the stock when the base number is this fragile.
The premium only works if reported earnings start catching up to the recovery narrative.
med
low return on capital
return on capital is 6.5%. For a business full of physical assets, that leaves little room for bad weather, weak attendance, or cost creep.
If capital stays this unproductive, you are holding a turnaround story rather than a quality compounder.
med
the bull case depends on estimates becoming reality
fy2026 EPS is estimated at $0.85 and fy2028 revenue at $5B. Those numbers are the bridge between today's weak optics and tomorrow's upside case.
If those estimates slip, the $31 midpoint target starts to look generous fast.
$5.0B of long-term debt equals 76% of capital, while the business keeps 7.4% of revenue as net profit. That does not leave you much cushion if the recovery takes longer than expected.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
risk
debt has to shrink as a share of the story
$5.0B of long-term debt against a roughly $2B market cap is still the loudest number on the page. If that burden does not ease, the equity stays speculative.
metric
watch whether $0.85 in fy2026 EPS looks conservative or optimistic
That estimate is the near-term proof point. If earnings do not move toward it, 105.8x trailing earnings stops looking like patience and starts looking like denial.
trend
institutional selling has not flipped yet
Two straight quarters of net selling, including 133 buyers versus 168 sellers in 3Q2025, says sentiment is still cautious.
calendar
the next earnings print needs to bring operating proof
This page is thin on fresh operating detail. The next quarter matters because the market needs evidence, not another theoretical path to $5B in revenue.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
5 / 100
very low. in human-speak, analysts do not see a stable earnings pattern here.
risk rank
3
middle-tier risk profile. in human-speak, you are not buying a bunker stock, but you are not buying a distress case either.
price stability
35 / 100
the stock swings. The $12–$50 52-week range told you that already, and the stability score backs it up.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 133 buyers vs. 168 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$13
$49
$16
current price
$31
target midpoint · +95% from current · 3-5yr high: $40 (+150% · 26% ann'l return)
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