XVARY Composite Score
58
/ 100
Below Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
First Solar makes utility-scale solar panels and the systems that help power plants turn sunlight into electricity.
How it gets paid
Last year First Solar made $5.2B in revenue.
Why it's growing
Revenue grew 24.1% last year. The $4.84 quarterly EPS print mattered most because it missed $5.38 by 10.04%.
What just happened
Quarterly EPS landed at $4.84 versus about $5.38, a profit miss even with gross margin near 41.1% on the same print.
At a Glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
16.1x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
15.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
XVARY composite: 58/100 — below average
What They Do
First Solar makes utility-scale solar panels and the systems that help power plants turn sunlight into electricity.
First Solar uses thin-film semiconductors, meaning special layers that catch sunlight. So what: lower cost per watt than crystalline silicon rivals. It sold 21.0 GW in 2024, so your supplier is not a hobby shop.
How They Make Money
$5.2B
annual revenue · their business grew +24.1% last year
total revenue
$5.2B
+24.1%
The Products That Matter
Utility-scale module manufacturing
Cadmium Telluride Solar Panels
$5.2B revenue · ~30.6% operating margin
it's the entire $5.2B business, and operating margin in the key numbers panel is about 30.6%—still well above typical commodity panel economics.
core
Domestic capacity build-out
US Factory Construction
alabama and louisiana · $115M–$155M pretax drag
the new US plants are the growth plan, but the transition is not free. management expects low-capacity and related costs to cut pretax profit by $115M–$155M.
growth
Tax credit monetization
Investment Tax Credit Sales
helped drive a 33% bottom-line gain
credit sales helped push bottom-line growth up 33% from last year. that's real earnings support, but it also tells you policy is part of the story.
swing factor
Key Numbers
$5.2B
annual revenue
That is the size of the whole machine. You are not buying a niche installer.
30.6%
operating margin
For every $100 of sales, $30.60 is left after operating costs. That is a rare solar number.
$240
target price
That sits 20% above $199.86. The market is paying less than the target.
21.0 GW
modules sold
That is the volume that keeps the factory floor relevant. Less volume would squeeze everything.
Financial Health
B++
Strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 15 / 100
- long-term debt $283M (1% of capital)
- net profit margin 39.1% — net margin can sit above operating margin when ITC/credit sales and non-operating items hit the filing window—reconcile to ~30.6% operating margin in the same period
- return on equity 15% — $0.15 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
You invested $10000 in FSLR 3 years ago → it's now worth $10080.
The index would have given you $14540.
source: institutional data · total return
What Just Happened
missed estimates
Quarterly EPS landed at $4.84 versus about $5.38, a profit miss even with gross margin near 41.1% on the same print.
Use the ~$5.2B annual revenue line earlier on this page for full-year scale. The miss here was on EPS expectations, not a collapsed demand narrative in the same print.
$5.2B
annual revenue (page)
$4.84
eps
41.1%
gross margin (q)
the number that mattered
The $4.84 quarterly EPS print mattered most because it missed $5.38 by 10.04%.
-
First solar’s fourth-quarter earnings came in below expectations.
-
The solar panel manufacturer posted a 33% vs. prior year bottom-line gain thanks to a strong rise in number of modules sold and profits derived from the sale of tax credits.based on leadership’s previous statements, however, investors were anticipating a much better showing.
-
Prospects for this year have been scaled back.first solar now projects that the top line will only clock in between $4.9 billion and $5.2 billion in 2026.
-
This is about $1 billion less than our last forecast.
-
Moreover, as new facilities are completed in the united states, the company’s factories in asia are scheduled to cut production by almost 80%.the added (per unit) costs due to operating at low capacity and associated expenses could reduce pretax profits by $115 million to $155 million.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What Could Go Wrong
The #1 risk is the US factory transition arriving with lower revenue guidance.
Med
Manufacturing transition costs
First Solar is bringing new US factories online while cutting Asian production by almost 80%. That is a major footprint change for a company whose profits come from one core product line.
Management says low-capacity and related costs could cut pretax profit by $115M–$155M.
Med
Tax-credit dependence
The latest bottom-line growth was helped by investment tax credit sales. That is good while it lasts, but it means policy and monetization matter to earnings more than a plain panel business would suggest.
Credit sales helped drive a 33% gain in bottom-line results from last year, so any slowdown there would show up quickly.
Med
Another guidance reset
Management now expects 2026 revenue of $4.9B–$5.2B, about $1B below the previous forecast. That makes this a credibility story as much as a demand story.
If the next update moves below that range, the current 16.1x trailing multiple will not look cheap for long.
A company with a 41.1% net margin can absorb some pain. A company cutting its revenue outlook by about $1B while taking $115M–$155M of pretax transition costs cannot afford many more surprises.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Earnings
Next guide versus the $4.9B–$5.2B range
The next earnings report matters less for the quarter and more for whether management can hold the current 2026 revenue guide.
Metric
Transition costs versus $115M–$155M
If the factory handoff costs more than management expects, today's margin story gets weaker in a hurry.
Risk
Tax credit sales as an earnings support
Last year's bottom-line gain got help from credit monetization. You want to know how much of earnings next quarter comes from operations versus policy tailwinds.
Trend
Margin durability during the US ramp
Operating margin around 30% is still the bull case in one number versus commodity peers. If that steps down toward generic manufacturing levels, the valuation debate changes.
Analyst Rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3. in human-speak, analysts see no clear short-term edge while the guidance reset works through the stock.
risk profile
average
stability score 3. this is not a balance-sheet problem. it is a business-transition problem.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2. the chart has improved faster than the narrative.
earnings predictability
20 / 100
earnings predictability is low. translation: you should expect revisions, not a straight line.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 419 buyers vs. 324 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$137
$343
$200
Current price
$240
Target midpoint · +20% from current · 3-5yr high: $450 (+125% · 23% ann'l return)
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