Start here if you're new
what it is
Frontline owns oil tankers and gets paid to move crude and refined products around the world.
how it gets paid
Last year Frontline made $2.2B in revenue. VLCC shipping was the main engine at $1.11B, or 51% of sales.
what just happened
Frontline's last reported quarter delivered $1.03 in EPS versus a $0.20 estimate, even as revenue fell vs. prior year.
At a glance
C+ balance sheet — struggling to keep the lights on
25/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
15.9x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
8.4% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
16.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 34/100 — weak
What they do
Frontline owns oil tankers and gets paid to move crude and refined products around the world.
This is scale, not magic. Frontline runs 81 vessels, including 41 VLCCs, so you get more exposure when spot rates jump. Sanctions sidelined roughly 20% of vessels, which means compliant tankers had higher use and better pricing in 2025.
How they make money
$2.2B
annual revenue
VLCC shipping
$1.11B
Suezmax shipping
$0.60B
LR2 shipping
$0.33B
Aframax and other
$0.16B
The products that matter
moves crude oil by sea
Crude oil transportation
part of $2.2B revenue
this sits inside the company's $2.2B annual revenue base and rises or falls with global tanker demand.
core
moves petroleum products
Petroleum products transportation
same fleet economics
disclosure is thin here. that's the point. you own freight-rate exposure more than product diversification.
rate-driven
Key numbers
8.4%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → cash paid to shareholders each year at today's price → so what: you get real cash, but only if the stock holds up.
38.6%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: Frontline keeps about $0.39 of every revenue dollar before interest and taxes.
16.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the money tied up in ships and operations → so what: the fleet is productive when rates cooperate.
$2.9B
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed for years → so what: leverage boosts good years and makes bad years feel longer.
Financial health
C+
strength
- balance sheet grade C+ — weak — may struggle to fund operations
- risk rank 5 — safer than 5% of stocks
- price stability 20 / 100
- long-term debt $2.9B (32% of capital)
- net profit margin 39.4% — keeps 39 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 28% — $0.28 profit for every $1 investors have put in
C+ — net profit margin looks solid but balance sheet grade needs watching.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in FRO 3 years ago → it's now worth $26,850.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Frontline's last reported quarter delivered $1.03 in EPS versus a $0.20 estimate, even as revenue fell vs. prior year.
That is the whole stock in one sentence. The quarter beat expectations by 415%, but EDGAR shows revenue at $908M, down 26% vs. prior year, which tells you shipping rates are still the boss.
$908M
revenue
$1.03
eps
38.6%
operating margin
the number that mattered
The key number was $1.03 in EPS because Wall Street expected $0.20, and that gap shows how violently tanker profits can swing when rates move.
-
frontline likely made a strong comeback in the final stanza of 2025.we think the cyprus-based crude oil shipper ended the year on an impressive note, following negative revenue and earnings comps for most of 2025. indeed, favorable tanker market conditions and structural disruptions in global oil trade have lifted performance of late.
-
moreover, very large crude carrier ships in the spot market benefited from a surge in ton-mile demand as opec+ and non-opec producers have boosted production activity in the second half of 2025.
-
the rebound in exports and lower oil prices has helped inject incremental trade volumes for compliant ship owners.too, expanded sanction activity by the u.s. has removed a significant portion of the global fleet from open competition.
-
with roughly 20% of vessels under sanction, compliant tankers like frontline saw increased utilization and a spike in spot market rates. Geopolitical tailwinds are expected to continue in 2026 before the market is expected to re balance in 2027.on january 12th, the u.s. imposed sanctions on iran's oil and allied network, as a response to ongoing internal unrest in that country. elsewhere, the u.s. has blocked venezuelan crude exports in early 2026, further displacing their shadow fleet and rerouting trade flows away from venezuela. this move ought to further tighten compliant vessel availability and increase freight demand in 2026. as such, we anticipate higher spot market rates and freight premiums in the coming quarters as modest new ship orders are only scheduled for 2027. what's more, the gradual reopening of the suez canal in 2026 should lift profits and improve vessel turnaround given the shorter sailing distance. all told, we look for the top and bottom lines to advance nicely in 2026 before retreating somewhat in 2027, amid a balanced market outlook.
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investors should steer clear of this risky issue.u.s. policy-related disruptions and geopolitical developments could influence trade flows in the near term.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk is tanker rate volatility and trade-route disruption.
med
geopolitics can reroute the business overnight
sanctions, conflict, or route disruption would raise costs and interfere with cargo flows. this company gets paid to move oil by sea. if routes get messy, results get messy.
100% of the $2.2B revenue base depends on ships moving normally
med
$2.9B of long-term debt leaves less room for a bad cycle
shipping companies can look safe when margins are fat. debt does not get easier just because the last few quarters looked good.
long-term debt equals 32% of capital
med
the 8.4% yield is only attractive if earnings hold up
high payout stocks in cyclical industries are never just income stories. if tanker economics weaken, the dividend becomes a question, not a feature.
yield is 8.4% today, but the stock already carries a weak 34/100 composite score
med
volatility is not incidental here
a 20/100 price stability score and a $12–$29 52-week range tell you how fast sentiment can reprice this business. the chart has already shown you the personality.
same company, a 2.4x swing from low to high in 12 months
this is one business with $2.2B of revenue, $2.9B of long-term debt, and a stock already near the top of its $12–$29 range.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
valuation
the stock is already above the $24 target midpoint
with shares at $28.56 and the midpoint at $24, you need operating results to catch up with the chart.
balance sheet
$2.9B of debt matters more than the 39.4% net margin
high margins in shipping can fade faster than debt does. that mismatch is the quiet part.
flow
institutional buying has lasted three straight quarters
100 buyers versus 83 sellers in 3q2025 is supportive. if that flips, sentiment may flip with it.
next print
predictability is only 25/100
in human-speak, one weak quarter would not be some freak event. it would be the business model showing up on time.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
25 / 100
earnings are hard to forecast. in human-speak, analysts do not trust smooth results here.
balance sheet
C+
not distressed, not comfortable. debt limits how relaxed you can be.
price stability
20 / 100
the stock moves around a lot. you're owning a freight-rate cycle, not a utility.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 100 buyers vs. 83 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 52.7M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$10
$38
$29
current price
$24
target midpoint · 16% from current · 3-5yr high: $35 (+25% · 10% ann'l return)
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