Start here if you're new
what it is
Five Point builds large California neighborhoods, plus the roads, shops, schools, and parks around them.
how it gets paid
Last year Five Point made $108M in revenue. home lot sales was the main engine at $48M, or 44% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 54.2% last year. A ~$33M quarter versus ~$108M trailing revenue shows how lumpy land sales are—not a smooth growth curve.
what just happened
Revenue landed at $33M in the latest quarter, while trailing sales sat at $108M.
At a glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
30/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
4.2x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
4.9% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$0.96 fy2024 eps est
xvary composite: 56/100 — below average
What they do
Five Point builds large California neighborhoods, plus the roads, shops, schools, and parks around them.
You are not buying a normal builder. You are buying 40,000 residential homes and 21 million square feet of commercial space across 3 coastal California projects. Master-planned communities → pre-approved neighborhoods → so what: permits, roads, and local politics are already part of the asset base.
How they make money
$108M
annual revenue · their business was down 54.2% last year
home lot sales
$48M
-54.2%
commercial land sales
$28M
-54.2%
infrastructure reimbursements
$20M
flat
other development revenue
$12M
-54.2%
The products that matter
sells entitled residential land
Land Entitlement and Sales
$108M revenue · 45.9% gross margin
It is the entire $108M revenue base and kept 45.9 cents of each dollar before overhead. If you want to understand FPH, start here and mostly stop here.
core engine
capital-light land banking
Hearthstone Platform
Q2 2025 strategy shift
Management pointed to this structure in Q2 2025 as a way to use less balance-sheet muscle. With $519M of long-term debt already on the books, that is not branding. It is necessity.
balance sheet watch
large california community pipeline
Master-Planned Communities
$100M 2026 target
These communities are the path to any rebound from the current $108M revenue level and the foundation under management's $100M 2026 net income ambition. The target sounds bold because it is.
execution bet
Key numbers
$108M
TTM sales
That is the whole business right now. $108M of sales is small next to $519M of debt.
4.2x
trailing p/e
You pay $4.20 for each $1 of trailing profit. That is cheap only if the earnings keep showing up.
$519M
debt
Debt is 59% of capital. That leaves less room for mistakes.
36.5%
operating margin
For every $100 of revenue, $36.50 stays after operating costs. The catch is that revenue is only $108M.
Financial health
C++
strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank feed shows “1 / low”—that clashes with C++ grade and 59% debt; treat leverage + land-cycle risk as the real governor
- price stability 25 / 100
- long-term debt $519M (59% of capital)
C++ — balance sheet grade and long-term debt are flagged. this stock carries more risk than average.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for FPH right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Revenue landed at $33M in the latest quarter, while trailing sales sat at $108M.
The latest quarter grew 153% vs. prior year. But the full-year revenue base still fell 54.2%, so the recovery is real and fragile.
$33M
revenue (Q)
$0.28
eps (Q)
45.9%
gross margin (Q)
the number that mattered
$33M matters because it shows the quarter can grow fast, but the $108M trailing base says the company is still small.
source: company earnings report, 2024
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is California lot-closing volatility — the current $108M revenue base sits in one state and depends on a small number of large transactions landing on schedule.
high
California concentration
You do not have geographic diversification here. A slowdown in coastal California housing demand or permitting activity hits the full $108M revenue base.
revenue exposure: 100% of current sales
high
Leverage and financing pressure
Long-term debt is $519M, or 59% of capital. That is a lot of fixed balance-sheet weight for a business where revenue fell 54.2% from last year.
debt load exceeds the $365M market cap
med
Asset-light pivot staying theoretical
Management has highlighted Hearthstone as the cleaner model. If debt and capital intensity do not move down from here, then the strategic shift is still talking points.
watch for lower leverage and less quarter-to-quarter revenue whiplash
med
2026 target credibility
Management's $100M 2026 net income ambition sits next to a current $108M trailing revenue base. That requires more than better sentiment. It requires sustained closings and strong margins.
the target needs both volume and profitability to cooperate at the same time
All $108M of current revenue sits in California, while $519M of long-term debt equals 59% of capital and tops the $365M equity value. If closings stall, the 4.2x multiple stops looking cheap and starts looking accurate.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
revenue climbing off the $108M floor
The cleanest bull signal is simple: trailing revenue starts moving back toward the old $238M estimate range instead of depending on one quarter's closings.
risk
debt relative to capital
$519M of long-term debt is 59% of capital today. If that ratio does not improve, the asset-light pitch has not done its job.
calendar
next earnings release
You want to know whether Q4's $58.7M beat was the start of a better closing cadence or just another quarter with good timing.
trend
Hearthstone turning into actual economics
Listen for fewer strategic slogans and more evidence: lower capital intensity, cleaner cash generation, and less dependence on one transaction carrying the period.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
30 / 100
30 / 100 means estimates are noisy because lot closings are noisy. in human-speak: analysts do not have a clean line of sight into the next few quarters.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for FPH is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$5
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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