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what it is
Firefly builds rockets, lunar landers, and spacecraft so customers can launch, move, and operate missions from orbit to the Moon.
how it gets paid
Last year Firefly Aerospace made $61M in revenue.
what just happened
Revenue hit $102M, up 232% Vs. last year, but EPS fell to -$7.25 and gross margin was just 14.4%.
At a glance
n/a balance sheet
2.5x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
$12.00 fy2025 eps est
$61M fy2024 rev est
~$4B market cap
What they do
Firefly builds rockets, lunar landers, and spacecraft so customers can launch, move, and operate missions from orbit to the Moon.
Vertical integration → building and operating more of the stack in-house → more control over schedule and cost. So what: in space, one delay can wreck a mission plan. Firefly says it covers launch, transit, and operations from Low Earth Orbit to the Moon and deep space, and its S-1/A says Alpha is the first and only U.S.-based orbital rocket in the 1,000-kilogram class to successfully reach orbit. That gives you one vendor across more of the mission.
How they make money
$61M
annual revenue
total revenue
$61M
n/a
The products that matter
small-lift orbital launch vehicle
Alpha Rocket
4 successful launches · 1,000 kg class
It anchors the current launch story. Alpha is the only U.S. rocket in the 1,000 kg class to reach orbit, but four successful launches still leaves you with a very short reliability history.
core launch asset
orbital and lunar mission services
Spacecraft & Lunar Services
$24M segment · 39% of revenue
This part of the business brought in $24M of the $61M revenue base. It matters because it gives Firefly a second way to monetize missions beyond a single launch slot.
diversifies revenue
Key numbers
$102M
latest revenue
EDGAR shows $102M in the latest quarter. Plain English: Firefly is producing real sales now, and that one quarter already exceeds the separate $61M annual estimate.
$36M
long-term debt
Long-term debt is $36M, or 1% of capital. Plain English: leverage is not the main problem here. Execution is.
2.5x
trailing p/e
A 2.5x trailing P/E looks absurdly cheap until you put it next to Yahoo's trailing EPS of negative $6.00. So what: your data providers are telling two different stories.
14.4%
gross margin
Gross margin was 14.4% in the latest quarter. Plain English: after direct costs, there is not much room left for mistakes.
Financial health
n/a
strength
- balance sheet grade n/a
- long-term debt $36M (1% of capital)
n/a — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for FLY right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $102M, up 232% Vs. last year, but EPS fell to -$7.25 and gross margin was just 14.4%.
The revenue print was huge versus the company's smaller annual figures elsewhere in the data. The problem is profitability: EPS was -$7.25, and Yahoo still shows trailing EPS at -$6.00, so the income statement is not cleaned up yet.
$102M
revenue
$7.25
eps
14.4%
gross margin
the number that mattered
$102M matters most because one quarter at that level already tops the separate $61M annual estimate, which tells you growth is real or the data stack is messy enough to change the whole story.
source: EDGAR filing, 2026
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What could go wrong
The #1 risk is Alpha launch slippage or failure. This is not a diversified industrial with dozens of ways to absorb bad news. It's a still-small space company where one mission can reset the whole conversation.
med
Alpha launch cadence breaks
Launch Services generated $37M of the $61M revenue base. If the next Alpha mission slips again or fails, the core bull case — that Firefly can become a repeatable launch provider — takes a direct hit.
Why it matters: about 61% of current revenue is tied to the segment investors care about most.
med
Securities fraud investigation escalates
A class action lawsuit tied to statements made in September 2025 is already in the story. If litigation gains traction, management attention shifts from execution to defense.
Why it matters: credibility is a real input when your valuation rests more on future milestones than current earnings power.
med
Valuation loses altitude
At roughly 61x sales, Firefly is priced like a scaled platform before the income statement looks anything like one. That kind of multiple works until progress pauses.
Why it matters: a ~$3.7B market cap on $61M of revenue leaves very little room for ordinary execution misses.
med
Margin stays stuck at early-stage levels
A 14.4% gross margin means the business is keeping only 14.4 cents of each revenue dollar after direct costs. If that doesn't improve with scale, the platform narrative gets harder to defend.
Why it matters: the market is paying for future economics, not the current ones.
Launch Services are $37M of $61M revenue, and gross margin is 14.4%. If cadence slips while margins stay thin, the valuation has nothing solid to lean on.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
catalyst
next Alpha launch window
Q1 2026 is the milestone that matters most. Another clean mission helps prove cadence. A delay does the opposite.
unit economics
gross margin above 14.4%
You want to see margin move up as revenue grows. If the top line expands but margin stays stuck here, scale is not fixing the business.
legal
securities case developments
Watch whether the investigation stays background noise or becomes the headline. For a credibility-dependent stock, that distinction matters.
relative proof
mission services as a bigger slice of revenue
Spacecraft and mission solutions are already $24M, or 39% of revenue. If that mix grows, Firefly becomes less dependent on a single launch narrative.
Analyst rankings
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for FLY is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$30
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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