XVARY Composite Score
53
/ 100
Below Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
National Beverage sells LaCroix, Faygo, Shasta, Rip It, and other drinks, mostly in the U.S.
How it gets paid
Last year National Beverage made $1.2B in revenue. LaCroix sparkling and flavored water was the main engine at $0.68B, or 57% of sales.
Why it's growing
Revenue grew 0.8% last year. Gross margin near 37.6% mattered most because this company is winning on profitability while sales barely move.
What just happened
Latest quarter revenue slipped to $264.6M, but profits still improved because margins got better.
At a Glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
80/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
16.1x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
31.5% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
XVARY composite: 53/100 — below average
What They Do
National Beverage sells LaCroix, Faygo, Shasta, Rip It, and other drinks, mostly in the U.S.
Return on capital 31.5% → about 32 cents of profit for every dollar invested → so what: this business turns shelf space into cash. Operating margin is 25.0%, versus annual revenue growth of just 0.8%, which tells you the money comes from pricing and efficiency, not frantic expansion. If you own it, you are owning a beverage company that does more with a small footprint than many bigger rivals.
How They Make Money
$1.2B
annual revenue · their business grew +0.8% last year
LaCroix sparkling and flavored water
$0.68B
+1.5%
Shasta and Faygo soft drinks
$0.34B
1.0%
Rip It energy drinks and shots
$0.12B
3.0%
Juices, lemonades, and teas
$0.06B
+2.0%
The Products That Matter
Flagship sparkling water brand
LaCroix Sparkling Water
~$680M · ~57% of revenue
Aligned to the segment bridge below. The company still runs near 37.6% gross margin, but case volume fell 4.8% last quarter—that trade-off is the story.
core franchise
Adjacent beverage line
Rip It & other brands
~$520M · ~43% combined
Shasta, Faygo, Rip It, juices, and teas sum to the rest of the ~$1.2B pie in the revenue bridge—diversification without double-counting LaCroix.
side bet
Pricing architecture
Price per Case
+4.4% last quarter
price rose 4.4% while volume fell 4.8%. in plain english: the company got more money per case because it sold fewer cases. that can work for a while. it is not a growth plan.
watch closely
Key Numbers
31.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on each dollar invested → so what: this business produces a lot of earnings without needing a lot more money.
25.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: one quarter of each sales dollar is left before taxes and interest.
16.1x
trailing p/e
P/E → how many dollars you pay for one dollar of earnings → so what: this is priced more like a steady business than a hype stock.
74.7%
insider ownership
Insider ownership → how much management controls → so what: leadership has huge skin in the game, and outside shareholders have limited influence.
Financial Health
B++
Strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 55 / 100
- net profit margin 20.3% — keeps 20 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 32% — $0.32 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
You invested $10000 in FIZZ 3 years ago → it's now worth $7220.
The index would have given you $13920.
source: institutional data · total return
What Just Happened
beat estimates
Latest quarter revenue slipped to $264.6M, but profits still improved because margins got better.
Gross margin improved to about 37.6% from the recent company release, even as sales stayed soft. That is the whole FIZZ story right now: fewer cases, better economics.
$264.6M
Qtr revenue
$0.44
eps (Q)
37.6%
gross margin
the number that mattered
Gross margin near 37.6% mattered most because this company is winning on profitability while sales barely move.
-
In fact, earnings per share resided at $1.09, one cent below the previous year's $1.10 tally.
-
This partially reflected slightly lower sales, given a decline in case volume (which impacted both the power+ brands and carbonated soft drink brands ).moreover, selling, general & administrative expenses rose some attributed, to a large extent, to greater marketing costs. too, the company had reduced interest income (included in the ``other income, net'' category), stemming mainly from diminished average invested balances. since we expect challenges to persist over the course of the year, fiscal 2025 profits ought to finish in the neighborhood of $2.00 a share.
-
That would only approximate fiscal 2024's $1.99 figure.
-
But concerning the following year, the bottom line might grow around 5%, to $2.10 per share, if the business climate exhibits some improvement, of course.
-
The balance sheet grade rating is b++.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What Could Go Wrong
The #1 risk is continued case-volume decline at la croix.
High
Falling unit demand
case volume fell 4.8% last quarter. if that keeps happening, the core beverage franchise is shrinking even if revenue looks stable for a while.
this puts the majority of the roughly $1.2B revenue base at risk.
Med
Pricing power fades
average price per case rose 4.4% and still did not fully offset the volume drop. if consumers push back harder, revenue and margins can compress at the same time.
the 37.6% gross margin improvement can reverse faster than investors expect.
Med
Category crowding
sparkling water and energy drinks are crowded shelves. when a smaller brand loses velocity, bigger rivals usually do not send flowers.
shelf-space pressure would hit both volume and future pricing leverage.
Low
Buybacks mask the operating picture
open-market repurchases can make EPS look steadier than the underlying demand trend. that helps sentiment, but it can also blur what the business is really doing.
per-share optics improve while the operating story stays flat.
a business growing 0.8% with a 4.8% volume decline does not have much room for a pricing mistake.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
The key metric
Case volume
4.8% down is the number to watch. if volume is still negative next quarter, the pricing-led defense is not solving the real problem.
Calendar
Q4 2026 earnings report
the next report should tell you whether the weak demand trend was a blip or the new normal.
Trend
Price versus volume
last quarter was +4.4% in price per case against -4.8% in volume. you want that gap narrowing, not widening.
Capital return
Share repurchase pace
buybacks started in oct 2025. helpful if the core business stabilizes. cosmetic if it does not.
Analyst Rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think this stock has a harder time outperforming from here.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — not especially dangerous, not especially defensive.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not giving you a rescue signal.
earnings predictability
80 / 100
the company tends to produce steady results. predictability is useful. it is not the same thing as growth.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
108 buyers vs. 112 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 23.0M shares.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$28
$54
$32
Current price
$41
Target midpoint · +27% from current · 3-5yr high: $75 (+135% · 24% ann'l return)
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