Start here if you're new
what it is
FICO sells the scores and decision software banks use to decide who gets credit and at what price.
how it gets paid
Last year Fair Isaac made $2.0B in revenue. credit bureau scoring services was the main engine at $0.82B, or 41% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 15.9% last year. $304.5 million in scores revenue mattered most because that line grew nearly 30% and shows FICO's pricing power is still very real.
what just happened
FICO posted $511.9M in quarterly revenue, up 16% vs. prior year, but EPS of $7.33 came in just below the $7.38 estimate.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
100/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
48.5x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
34.0% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 67/100 — average
What they do
FICO sells the scores and decision software banks use to decide who gets credit and at what price.
Your lender can change logos faster than it can change a credit model. FICO's score is wired into lending workflows, regulation, and decades of habit. That stickiness helps produce a 46.5% operating margin and 34.0% return on capital, according to.
How they make money
$2.0B
annual revenue · their business grew +15.9% last year
credit bureau scoring services
$0.82B
+30.0%
application scoring models
$0.19B
+15.9%
behavioral scores
$0.18B
+15.9%
decision management software
$0.65B
+16.0%
analytics and optimization tools
$0.16B
+15.9%
The products that matter
consumer credit scoring standard
FICO Score
90% of us lending decisions
it sits inside roughly 90% of us lending decisions, which is why this company can charge for a score that most consumers never even see.
core engine
trended-data score model
FICO Score 10T
uses 24 months of history
this version looks at 24 months of payment history instead of a single snapshot. if lenders adopt it faster, fico gets a cleaner upgrade story inside an already-dominant franchise.
upgrade path
enterprise decision software
FICO Decision Management Platform
$205M quarterly revenue
software produced $205M this quarter and grew 13%. this is the steadier side of the house, and it matters because it diversifies fico beyond a single score franchise.
recurring fees
Key numbers
100
earnings consistency
Earnings predictability → how steady profits have been historically → so what: you are buying a business that has been unusually consistent for a company trading at 48.5x earnings.
46.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → revenue left after running the business → so what: nearly half of every sales dollar turns into operating profit.
34.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested in the business → so what: FICO squeezes a lot of profit out of each dollar it puts to work.
48.5x
trailing p/e
P/E → price divided by annual profit → so what: you are paying a luxury multiple for a company already priced like a monopoly with good manners.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 40 / 100
- long-term debt $2.8B (8% of capital)
- net profit margin 37.4% — keeps 37 cents of every dollar in revenue
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in FICO 3 years ago → it's now worth $21,020.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
FICO posted $511.9M in quarterly revenue, up 16% vs. prior year, but EPS of $7.33 came in just below the $7.38 estimate.
The business still looked strong under the hood. Scores revenue climbed nearly 30% to $304.5 million, helped by a 60% jump in mortgage origination volume and favorable pricing, according to.
$511.9M
revenue
$7.33
eps
46.5%
operating margin
the number that mattered
$304.5 million in scores revenue mattered most because that line grew nearly 30% and shows FICO's pricing power is still very real.
-
total scores revenue climbed nearly 30% from a year ago, to $304.5 million.
-
we believe fico benefited from lower mortgage rates during the interim, which resulted in more buyers entering the home buying game.
-
in fact, mortgage origination volume increased 60% from a year ago, while pricing was also favorable.
-
however, its share price remains under pressure due to changes in the competitive landscape.
-
the primary factor behind the share-price decline has been increasing regulatory pressure.as noted in our last review, the federal housing financing agency (fhfa) has attempted to increase competition in the fannie mae and freddie mac mortgage market to use other options (besides fico) including vantagescore 4.0.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the #1 risk is antitrust and mortgage-score competition around the fico franchise. this is not abstract. it goes straight at the segment that produced $307M of the $512M quarter.
high
DOJ antitrust investigation is still unresolved
the probe opened in march 2020 and remained active in 2026 filings. six years is a long time for an overhang to sit on a premium multiple.
if that process forces licensing or pricing changes, it hits the highest-value part of the business first.
high
fhfa pressure could weaken fico's hold in mortgage underwriting
the agency has tried to broaden the options used by fannie mae and freddie mac, including VantageScore 4.0. the issue is not whether fico disappears. it's whether exclusivity erodes.
when a stock trades at 48.5x earnings, even modest share loss can matter more than an ordinary quarterly beat.
med
private antitrust litigation adds cost and headline risk
a september 2023 court ruling denied fico's motion to dismiss antitrust claims from credit unions and real estate brokerages. that keeps the case alive and the story messy.
you do not need a catastrophic outcome for the multiple to compress. you just need the market to decide the moat is less clean than it looked.
med
the valuation leaves little room for normal business noise
shares trade at 48.5x trailing earnings even after institutions were net sellers for two straight quarters. that is a fine setup if growth stays strong. it is less forgiving if growth merely becomes good.
multiple compression can hurt even when the business itself stays solid.
Scores generated $307M of the $512M quarter. if regulators or lenders weaken that tollbooth, the segment carrying most of the story takes the hit.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
Q2 FY2026 earnings report
watch whether Scores keeps growing faster than Software. at this valuation, investors need the core franchise to keep leading the quarter.
risk
any DOJ or fhfa process update
the stock does not need a final ruling to move. even a procedural update can change how durable investors think the moat really is.
trend
mortgage-driven Scores momentum
mortgage origination volume was up 60% from last year. if that cools, you want to see software strength and pricing hold up the story.
metric
free cash flow conversion
$165.4M of free cash flow is strong. the next question is whether cash keeps compounding fast enough to justify buybacks at a premium multiple.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
100 / 100
in human-speak, management usually delivers the kind of quarter the street expects.
balance sheet grade
B+
good enough to support the story, not strong enough to erase regulatory risk.
risk rank
3
middle-of-the-pack safety. this is not a bunker stock, even if the business model looks sticky.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 388 buyers vs. 574 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 20.8M shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$1125
$2489
$1451
current price
$2700
target midpoint · +86% from current · 3-5yr high: $3240 (+125% · 22% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive