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what it is
FedEx picks up, sorts, flies, and delivers packages and documents in more than 220 countries.
how it gets paid
Last year Fedex made $87.9B in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 0.3% last year. Adjusted earnings reached $4.82 per share, up 19% vs. prior year, prompting management to raise the low end of its full-year guidance by 2% to.
what just happened
FedEx's latest quarter put $4.82 EPS on the board, up 19% vs. prior year.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
75/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
18.4x trailing p/e — priced about right
1.7% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
10.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 75/100 — average
What they do
FedEx picks up, sorts, flies, and delivers packages and documents in more than 220 countries.
FedEx runs 700 aircraft and 175,000 ground vehicles. That is not a network you copy from a spreadsheet. Your package touches a system that already spans 220 countries, so leaving is painful.
How they make money
$87.9B
annual revenue · their business grew +0.3% last year
total revenue
$87.9B
+0.3%
The products that matter
global air express delivery
Express
brand-defining network
this is the part of the system customers pay up for when time matters. last quarter, the federal express segment lifted adjusted operating income by 24% and margin to 7.7%.
time-sensitive
ground package delivery
Ground
volume and margin support
ground matters because package density helps fixed costs work harder. u.s. domestic package revenue climbed 12% in the november quarter, which says pricing and mix still have life.
density driver
less-than-truckload freight services
Freight
supporting business line
freight gives fedex another lane into business shipping, but this page does not give segment revenue or profit. that's useful information too. you should treat freight as support for the $87.9B platform, not the thesis by itself.
asset heavy
Key numbers
$289
18-month target
Target price → where the stock should trade in 18 months → that is $46 below today's $335.30.
13.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit left after running the business → 13.0% leaves little room for pricing mistakes.
10.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit on money invested → 10.5% says the business earns a decent, not heroic, return.
1.7%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → cash you get paid each year → 1.7% is small compared with the stock's moves.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 55 / 100
- long-term debt $16.2B (17% of capital)
- net profit margin 5.5% — keeps 6 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 16% — $0.16 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in FDX 3 years ago → it's now worth $16,670.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
FedEx's latest quarter put $4.82 EPS on the board, up 19% vs. prior year.
The Federal Express segment drove the quarter, with adjusted operating income up 24% and margin up 100 basis points. U.S. domestic package revenue rose 12% on yield gains across all services.
$45.7B
revenue
$4.82
eps
13.0%
margin
the number that mattered
The most important number was the 24% jump in adjusted operating income at Federal Express, because profit growth beat package growth.
-
fedex delivered a strong november quarter.
-
adjusted earnings reached $4.82 per share, up 19% vs. prior year, prompting management to raise the low end of its full-year guidance by 2% (using midpoints) to $17.80-$19.00.
-
the federal express segment drove results, with adjusted operating income rising 24% and margin expanding 100 basis points to 7.7%.
-
u.s. domestic package revenue climbed 12%, driven by yield gains across all services.the company achieved these results while navigating multiple headwinds, including nationwide air traffic constraints and ongoing global trade policy disruptions.
-
also, the faa grounded all boeing md-11s after a fatal ups crash.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
fedex's core risk is simple: the stock is being graded on execution while revenue is still basically flat.
med
flat revenue leaves very little room for mistakes
Revenue moved just 0.3% last year on an $87.9B base. When top-line growth is that thin, pricing, mix, and cost control have to keep carrying the quarter.
At a 4.8% net margin, small operating misses can hit earnings harder than you expect.
med
air traffic and trade disruption hit this business fast
Management already flagged nationwide air traffic constraints and global trade policy disruptions. That is not background noise. It hits the physical network you own.
The latest quarter was $23.5B of revenue. Delays and softer cross-border demand show up there before they show up anywhere else.
med
institutions have been selling into the rally
FedEx has seen net institutional selling for three straight quarters, with 780 sellers versus 698 buyers in the latest period.
If the operating story wobbles while big holders are already trimming, pullbacks can get sharper than the fundamentals alone suggest.
med
the returns are good enough, not spectacular
Return on capital is 9.0% and long-term debt is $16.2B. That is manageable, but it does not buy you much complacency in a capital-heavy network.
If returns stay around 9.0% while the stock keeps rerating, valuation becomes the problem.
With $87.9B of revenue growing 0.3% and the stock already above the $289 target midpoint, you are paying for execution, not for a lot of macro help.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
the next margin print
Revenue has not been doing much. If margins stop improving, the story changes fast.
trend
whether revenue can move beyond +0.3%
An $87.9B business does not need hypergrowth. It does need more than flatlined sales if the stock wants to keep rerating.
metric
return on capital above 9.0%
That number tells you whether operating improvements are turning into better economics or just better optics.
risk
institutional selling pressure
Three straight quarters of net selling is not fatal. It is a sign the largest holders want more proof.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 5%
momentum score 1 — one of the best ratings in the system. in human-speak, analysts think this stock has stronger near-term performance than almost everything else.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — not especially safe, not especially fragile. you own a normal level of equity risk for a large industrial.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is constructive, but not doing anything exotic.
earnings predictability
75 / 100
guidance has been reasonably reliable. you usually are not waking up to wild earnings surprises here.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 698 buyers vs. 780 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$169
$408
$335
current price
$289
target midpoint · 14% from current · 3-5yr high: $435 (+30% · 8% ann'l return)
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