Start here if you're new
what it is
Freeport-McMoRan digs copper, gold, and molybdenum out of mines across Indonesia, North America, South America, and Africa.
how it gets paid
Last year T-Mcmoran made $25.2B in revenue. Copper was the main engine at $19.6B, or 78% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 0.1% last year. The ore body of the impacted area represents about 50% of the copper reserves and just under 50% of the gold reserves in the district.
what just happened
Revenue hit $19.9B, and EPS came in at $1.24.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
30/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
31.7x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
1.5% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
27.0% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 59/100 — below average
What they do
Freeport-McMoRan digs copper, gold, and molybdenum out of mines across Indonesia, North America, South America, and Africa.
You are not buying a factory. You are buying 4.2 billion pounds of copper output and 1.88 million ounces of gold output, per Source 1. Replacing a mine takes years and piles of cash. That is why your supply is stuck where the rock is.
How they make money
$25.2B
annual revenue · their business grew +0.1% last year
Copper
$19.6B
Gold
$4.1B
Molybdenum
$0.9B
Other commodities
$0.6B
The products that matter
copper mining and sales
Copper
$25.2B revenue base
Copper is the center of gravity. The whole company produced $25.2B in revenue last year, and the main risk section exists because copper prices can move that number fast.
core metal
gold byproduct extraction
Gold
district exposure matters
Gold is not a side note when the impacted Grasberg area represented just under 50% of district gold reserves. The same mine that drives copper also carries real precious-metals leverage.
byproduct upside
molybdenum byproduct sales
Molybdenum
third metal stream
Molybdenum is the third metal in a $25.2B mining system. It will not change the story on its own, but extra metal streams matter when copper stops cooperating.
diversifier
Key numbers
$58
18-mo target
This is the target price against a $47.52 share price, so you are looking at 22% upside if the thesis holds.
31.7x
trailing p/e
You are paying 31.7 times trailing earnings for a miner, which is rich versus a business tied to commodity cycles.
27.0%
return on capital
A 27.0% return on capital says the business is getting a strong payoff from the money it throws into the ground and plants.
1.5%
dividend yield
The payout is thin, so you are not buying this for income alone.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 30 / 100
- long-term debt $8.9B (12% of capital)
- net profit margin 25.8% — keeps 26 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 36% — $0.36 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in FCX 3 years ago → it's now worth $13,000.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Revenue hit $19.9B, and EPS came in at $1.24.
The latest quarter showed a huge top-line jump versus last year, with revenue up 192% and EPS up 170%. The prior year's base was weak, so the comparison did a lot of the heavy lifting.
$19.9B
revenue
$1.24
eps
25.9%
gross margin
the number that mattered
Revenue was the number that mattered because $19.9B was the clear proof the business is still throwing off scale.
-
seven workers died in the incident.
-
the ore body of the impacted area represents about 50% of the copper reserves and just under 50% of the gold reserves in the district.
-
at this point, freeport is in the early stages of bringing back production.
-
the unaffected big gossan and deep mlz mines restarted operations in late october.
-
meanwhile, a phased approach is being considered for the impacted area.blocks 2 and 3 did not sustain damage to infrastructure, but the company needs to clean up mud in the tunnels mainly in the service area of the mines.
source: EDGAR quarterly filing, latest reported quarter
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is copper price volatility with Grasberg restart risk layered on top.
med
copper price volatility
This is the cleanest risk on the page. FCX generated $25.2B in annual revenue, and the business model is still anchored to what copper sells for. When copper moves, margins and sentiment move with it.
Impact: price weakness can pressure essentially the full $25.2B revenue base.
med
Grasberg restart execution
The impacted area represented about 50% of district copper reserves and just under 50% of district gold reserves. A slower-than-expected phased recovery would hit the part of the portfolio that matters most.
Impact: this is not a rounding error. It touches a large share of FCX's most important district reserves.
med
premium multiple meets low predictability
The stock trades at 31.7x trailing earnings while earnings predictability sits at 30 / 100. That combination works when production is clean and copper is friendly. It gets punished when either one slips.
Impact: valuation has less room to absorb disappointment than the word miner usually implies.
Between copper price exposure and Grasberg concentration, the risks run through essentially all $25.2B of revenue and a large share of the company's most important reserves.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next earnings report
Watch production commentary, cash costs, and whether management sounds more confident about Grasberg recovery than it did last quarter.
metric
the $26B revenue target
That estimate is only modestly above the current $25.2B base. If FCX cannot clear it, the premium multiple gets harder to defend.
risk
Grasberg phased restart
The impacted area held about 50% of district copper reserves. Restart updates matter more here than polished quarterly messaging.
trend
institutional buying streak
Institutions were net buyers for three straight quarters. If that support fades while copper weakens, the stock loses a helpful tailwind.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
Momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts think FCX is moving with the market, not outrunning it.
risk profile
average
Stability score 3 means the balance sheet is serviceable, but the stock still behaves like a commodity name.
chart momentum
below average
Technical score 4 means the chart is not giving you much help from here.
earnings predictability
30 / 100
Low predictability means quarterly numbers can swing harder than the headline multiple suggests.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 792 buyers vs. 641 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 1.2B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$34
$81
$48
current price
$58
target midpoint · +22% from current · 3-5yr high: $85 (+80% · 16% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
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