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what it is
Exponent sells scientific and engineering expertise to companies facing product failures, lawsuits, recalls, and regulatory headaches.
how it gets paid
Last year Exponent made $582M in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 4.2% last year. The 8% revenue rebound mattered more than the $0.02 EPS miss because it suggests demand recovered faster than expected.
what just happened
Last quarter EPS came in at $0.49 versus a $0.51 estimate, a small miss in a stock priced for consistency.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
95/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
35.1x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
1.8% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
22.5% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 62/100 — average
What they do
Exponent sells scientific and engineering expertise to companies facing product failures, lawsuits, recalls, and regulatory headaches.
You hire Exponent when being wrong gets expensive. The company spans more than 90 technical disciplines with 1,200 employees, so your client can call one firm instead of assembling a small conference room of specialists. Operating margin → money left after running the business → so what: a 28.0% margin says this expertise is priced like a necessity, not a commodity.
How they make money
$582M
annual revenue · their business grew +4.2% last year
total revenue
$582M
+4.2%
The products that matter
solving failures and liability cases
Engineering Consulting
$582M revenue base · 27.4% operating margin
this is the core of the $582M business, and the 27.4% operating margin tells you clients are paying for judgment, not commodity labor.
core
industrial compliance advising
Environmental Consulting
specific revenue not broken out
revenue is not split out here, which matters because you cannot see how much of the $582M base comes from regulatory work versus one-off investigations.
not broken out
materials and construction analysis
Other Technical Services
specific revenue not broken out
this broad bucket adds breadth, but the lack of a segment split means investors get less visibility into which parts of the $582M business are actually driving growth.
visibility risk
Key numbers
35.1x
trailing p/e
P/E → price compared with yearly profit → so what: you are paying a premium price for a company expected to grow revenue 6.5%, not 20%.
28.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → money left after normal business costs → so what: Exponent keeps $0.28 of every sales dollar before interest and taxes, which is rich for consulting.
22.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the cash put into the business → so what: this is a high-quality service model that does not need huge reinvestment.
$810M
2029 revenue
That estimate is only about 39% above today's $582M revenue over several years, so the current valuation already assumes a lot of steady execution.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 70 / 100
- net profit margin 19.5% — keeps 20 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 22% — $0.22 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in EXPO 3 years ago → it's now worth $7,260.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Last quarter EPS came in at $0.49 versus a $0.51 estimate, a small miss in a stock priced for consistency.
The broader setup was better than that headline suggests. Management's commentary pointed to an 8% revenue rebound and 10% earnings growth as dispute-related demand improved and margins expanded.
$435M
revenue
$0.49
eps
36.29%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 8% revenue rebound mattered more than the $0.02 EPS miss because it suggests demand recovered faster than expected.
-
exponent appears to be recovering as corporate uncertainty diminishes.for better or worse, the trump administration has created a high level of volatility and uncertainty, both stateside and abroad. even the judicial and regulatory systems on which this consulting company depends have been in flux. this uncertainty has led companies to rein in spending on such services, and was probably the main factor behind exponent's first-half weakness this year. although the hesitancy by foreign firms to import the advice and services from a u.s. company will likely linger for quite a while, and the removal of environmental regulations may temporarily eliminate the needs for exponent's services in that area, it is, ironically, uncertainty that promotes the need for exponent's services.
-
the third quarter suggests that exponent's recovery has started quicker than we thought.
-
during the period, revenues rebounded 8%, as increasing demand for dispute-related work drove robust growth in reactive engagements across the energy, transportation, life sciences and construction sectors.
-
margin improvements helped push earnings up 10%, despite a higher tax rate.
-
and, though it may be difficult to see, demand growth likely increased in the fourth quarter.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is premium-multiple compression if expert-demand growth stays slow.
med
consulting demand slows
Revenue grew 4.2% to $582M last year. At 35.1x trailing earnings, this stock needs steady utilization and pricing. If case work or project demand pauses, the multiple has nowhere to hide.
missing the $620M revenue estimate would pressure the growth story first and the valuation right after.
med
good business, expensive stock
EXPO is a $4B company trading at 35.1x earnings even after turning $10,000 into $7,260 over the last three years. Quality helps. It does not immunize you from re-rating risk.
even stable earnings can lead to a flat or down stock if investors stop paying a premium multiple.
med
thin segment disclosure
This page shows $582M total revenue, but not a clean segment split. That makes it harder to tell which end markets are carrying growth and which are slowing down.
when disclosure is thin, you usually find out later if part of the business is weakening.
At $73.66, you are paying 35.1x trailing earnings for a business that grew revenue 4.2% to $582M. If growth fails to reach the $620M estimate, valuation pressure is the most immediate risk.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
revenue versus the $620M estimate
That forecast is only about $38M above last year's $582M. If EXPO cannot clear a modest bar, the premium multiple gets harder to defend.
trend
margin discipline
A 19.2% net margin and 27.4% operating margin are the reason this stock gets priced like quality. If either starts slipping, the story changes fast.
flow
institutional sponsorship
156 buyers versus 200 sellers in 3q2025 is not a panic signal. It is a sign the big money has not been in a hurry to pay up here.
earnings
the next quarter against a $0.55 EPS baseline
Q4 was steady. Another clean print supports the predictability case. A miss would matter more here than it would for a cheaper stock.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts see a stock behaving normally, not one with strong near-term sponsorship.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — neither a bunker stock nor a drama machine.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the chart is not broken. It just is not doing you any favors.
earnings predictability
95 / 100
management has been unusually reliable. You usually do not buy EXPO for surprises.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
156 buyers vs. 200 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 47.4M shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$62
$113
$74
current price
$88
target midpoint · +19% from current · 3-5yr high: $110 (+50% · 12% ann'l return)
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