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what it is
Expeditors moves freight, clears customs, and coordinates shipments across 60+ countries.
how it gets paid
Last year Expd made $11.1B in revenue. Customs brokerage and import services was the main engine at $4.0B, or 36% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 4.4% last year. By contrast, airfreight activity should remain relatively resilient, supported by high technology and pharmaceutical export volumes from north and south asia.
what just happened
Expeditors posted $8.2B revenue and $1.49 EPS in the latest quarter.
At a glance
A+ balance sheet — rock-solid finances — built to survive anything
60/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
27.7x trailing p/e — priced about right
1.0% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
17.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 83/100 — above average
What they do
Expeditors moves freight, clears customs, and coordinates shipments across 60+ countries.
You are buying 172 offices and 38 independent-agent contracts, not trucks. That network spans 60+ countries and makes leaving painful. Customs brokerage (border paperwork) and import services made 36% of 2024 revenue, or $4.0B. Rebuilding that takes more than a cheaper quote.
How they make money
$11.1B
annual revenue · their business grew +4.4% last year
Customs brokerage and import services
$4.0B
0.0%
Air freight forwarding
$3.8B
0.0%
Ocean freight forwarding
$3.3B
10.0%
The products that matter
arranges premium international air shipments
Airfreight Logistics
part of the $11.1B freight network
management commentary points to tech and pharmaceutical exports helping airfreight hold up better than ocean. if that resilience fades, the "better mix" argument gets thinner fast.
higher-value lanes
moves containers across global trade lanes
Ocean Freight Logistics
the pressure point for 2026
the company is already flagging fleet oversupply and weaker rates here. in human-speak: too much capacity means pricing power disappears first in ocean.
cycle exposed
handles customs filings and compliance
Customs Brokerage
could benefit from tighter import rules
new import requirements requiring formal customs entries could lift fee income, but the page does not give segment dollars. that's a real tailwind, just not one we can size precisely from the data here.
regulatory tailwind
Key numbers
$11.1B
ttm revenue
That is the size of the freight machine. You are paying for a business that already cleared $11.1B in sales.
27.7x
trailing p/e
You are paying 27.7 years of last year's earnings for a logistics middleman. That is not cheap.
12.5%
operating margin
For every $100 in sales, $12.50 stays after operating costs. That leaves room, but not much drama.
17.5%
return on capital
Every $100 tied up in the business produced $17.50 in profit. That is why the franchise earns a premium.
Financial health
A+
strength
- balance sheet grade A+ — near the highest rating possible
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 80 / 100
- net profit margin 7.6% — keeps 8 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 18% — $0.18 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A+ — among the top-rated companies for balance sheet quality.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in EXPD 3 years ago → it's now worth $14,260.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Expeditors posted $8.2B revenue and $1.49 EPS in the latest quarter.
Yahoo says that beat $1.05 by 41.9%. EDGAR also lists $4.46 EPS, so the filing and consensus do not line up.
$8.2B
revenue
$1.49
eps
12.5%
operating margin
the number that mattered
The $1.49 EPS print mattered because it beat $1.05 by 41.9%, which is how freight stocks get forgiven for being boring.
-
thus, 2025 revenue and share earnings probably advanced to $11.03 billion and $5.90, respectively.
-
this year will primarily be defined by normalization.a correction in volume and pricing is expected, as importers work through the demand vacuum created by last year’s accelerated shipping activity.
-
the ocean freight business will likely face the most notable pressure.a fleet oversupply extending through 2026 has created excess capacity that is beginning to outweigh the impact of red sea diversions, placing downward pressure on rates.
-
hence, ocean volumes could experience a low-double-digit decline.by contrast, airfreight activity should remain relatively resilient, supported by high technology and pharmaceutical export volumes from north and south asia. in all, we expect 2026 revenue to pull back slightly to $11 billion, with share earnings growing modestly to $6.00.
-
nonetheless,..business prospects next year appear more favorable, as the industry moves past the normalization phase. expeditors is well positioned to benefit from the removal of the de minimis exemption, which now requires formal customs entries for a significant number of previously exempt commercial imports. the customs brokerage operations should see higher fee income, as shippers seek professional support to navigate an increasingly complex regulatory environment.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is ocean freight rate normalization into an already full valuation.
high
ocean freight oversupply
management commentary already points to fleet oversupply through 2026. when capacity is loose, rates usually fall first and margins feel it next.
even a move from $11.1B revenue to the $11B 2026 estimate makes today's premium multiple harder to defend.
med
post-pull-forward demand reset
last year's accelerated shipping activity may have borrowed demand from this year. if importers stay cautious longer, normalization turns into stagnation.
the street is only looking for $6.00 in 2026 EPS, so there is not much room for another reset.
med
customs tailwind may be smaller than hoped
tighter import rules can help customs brokerage, but the snapshot does not provide segment revenue or profit. that means the offset is real, but still hard to size.
if brokerage fees do not meaningfully offset freight weakness, the market is left with the cyclical pieces.
low
valuation compression
the shares trade at $163.55 versus a $146 analyst midpoint. when a cyclical stock already sits above target, good news has less room to surprise.
an 11% gap to target does not guarantee downside, but it tells you optimism is already in the price.
you are paying 27.7x trailing earnings for a business expected to go from $11.1B in revenue to about $11B next year. that's fine if normalization stays mild. it's not fine if freight pricing slips harder than expected.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
key metric
2026 revenue vs. $11.1B
the street is looking for about $11B. if revenue starts slipping materially below that, the normalization story is getting worse, not better.
trend
ocean pricing
too much capacity is the issue. if rate pressure keeps building, ocean becomes the drag that the rest of the business has to cover.
calendar
next customs-rule impact
watch the next few quarters for evidence that formal customs entries are translating into higher brokerage fees, not just better talking points.
risk
premium multiple
EXPD is near the top of its $100–$164 range while trading above the $146 target midpoint. when valuation is this full, you need clean execution.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead. in human-speak, they still like the setup despite the full valuation.
risk profile
below average
stability score 2 — safer than roughly 80% of stocks. that's balance-sheet safety, not immunity from freight cycles.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not screaming either way. the story is fundamentals, not tape drama.
earnings predictability
60 / 100
earnings predictability is decent, not pristine. in a freight name, pricing swings can still surprise you.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 361 buyers vs. 350 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$100
$192
$164
current price
$146
target midpoint · 11% from current · 3-5yr high: $200 (+20% · 6% ann'l return)
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