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what it is
Expand Energy drills shale wells and sells natural gas, oil, and liquids across the U.S.
how it gets paid
Last year Expand Energy made $12.1B in revenue. Natural gas sales was the main engine at $10.2B, or 84% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 186.3% last year. The $5.27 EPS print mattered because it beat a -$0.54 estimate and came with $8.9B in revenue.
what just happened
$5.27 EPS beat the street as revenue hit $8.9B.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
22.0x trailing p/e — priced about right
2.2% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
7.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$1.00 fy2027 eps est
xvary composite: 55/100 — below average
What they do
Expand Energy drills shale wells and sells natural gas, oil, and liquids across the U.S.
Expand Energy owns interests in about 8,000 wells across 4 shale basins. That is spread, not luck. You are not buying one field. You are buying a machine that keeps drilling where the rock already works. Leaving is painful because the leases, pipelines, and geology are already sunk.
How they make money
$12.1B
annual revenue · their business grew +186.3% last year
Natural gas sales
$10.2B
up
Oil sales
$0.9B
up
Natural gas liquids
$0.6B
up
Marketing and other
$0.4B
flat
The products that matter
drills and sells natural gas
Natural Gas Production
$8.5B · 70% of revenue
it's $8.5B of revenue and 70% of the business. if gas prices sag, the whole income statement feels it.
+210% growth
produces NGLs and oil
Liquids (NGLs & Oil)
$3.6B · 30% of revenue
this $3.6B segment grew 135% last year and gives you some diversification, just not enough to make EXE anything other than a gas-led story.
30% of revenue
Key numbers
$136
18-mo target
The target is $32.76 above $103.24, which is 32% upside if the market agrees.
22.0x
trailing p/e
You pay 22 years of last year's earnings for a gas producer. That is rich for a commodity business.
$12.1B
annual revenue
That is the size of the machine under the hood.
$5.0B
long-term debt
Debt equals 17% of capital, so the balance sheet is not a toy.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- long-term debt $5.0B (17% of capital)
- net profit margin 20.1% — keeps 20 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 10% — $0.10 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for EXE right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
$5.27 EPS beat the street as revenue hit $8.9B.
EDGAR shows $8.9B in latest-quarter revenue and $5.27 EPS, up 198% and 131% vs. prior year. Yahoo’s last-earnings snapshot shows $2.3 actual versus -$0.54 expected, so the beat is real even if the EPS yardstick differs.
$3.0B
revenue
$5.27
eps
198%
revenue growth
the number that mattered
The $5.27 EPS print mattered because it beat a -$0.54 estimate and came with $8.9B in revenue.
-
expand energy likely closed out 2025 on a softer note.revenues probably reached $2.55 billion in the december quarter, aided by strong haynesville output.
-
production is likely to have risen considerably, vs. prior year, while well costs have fallen by more than 25% since 2023.still, some derivative losses likely weighed on results, while costs related to improving operations weighed on the bottom line.
-
overall, we think these netted to a loss of $0.54 per share. we anticipate mixed operations in 2026.
-
the company is prepared to deliver a higher level of total natural gas production this year, compared to 2025, but lower natural gas prices are baked into our model and will pressure the top line.that said, the company will likely benefit from production efficiency, particularly in the haynesville region, which has gained from better rigs and allowed for better scale efficiencies. savings from the southwestern integration should reach about $600 million annualized and would support margins in a weaker pricing environment.
-
however, we do not think derivative gains of early 2025 will recur.overall, we estimate that the bottom line will be a loss of $0.80 per share for 2026. The long-term outlook is brighter. Domestic natural gas demand should grow considerably, driven by greater liquefied natural gas exports, power generation for data centers, and industrial expansion. moreover, the company should benefit from long-term supply agreements, such as the recently signed one with lake charles methanol. debt reduction ought to help over time, and the company has already eliminated $1.2 billion in obligations, and more will likely come in the years ahead.
source: EDGAR SEC filing, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is natural gas price weakness overpowering the promised chesapeake-southwestern savings.
high
natural gas price volatility
about 70% of revenue comes from natural gas. that means the commodity still dictates the income statement, no matter how much integration progress management presents.
roughly $8.5B of the $12.1B revenue base is tied to gas.
high
merger integration execution
the bull case assumes about $600M of annualized savings from the chesapeake-southwestern combination. that is the self-help lever meant to offset a weak pricing backdrop.
if the $600M target slips, the 11–12 rig plan and $2.85B capex budget get much less forgiving.
med
leadership transition during integration
the CEO departed in february 2026. an interim CEO is in place while the company works through integration and a mid-year headquarters move to houston.
management churn is rarely helpful when the company is trying to prove a merger case to skeptical investors.
med
hedging normalization
derivative gains seen early in 2025 are not expected to repeat. future quarters may look rougher even if field operations improve.
that raises the odds of choppy reported earnings while investors wait for cleaner evidence from production and costs.
this is a simple risk equation: about 70% of revenue rides on gas, while the company needs 7,600 MMcfe/day of production and roughly $600M of savings to keep the story intact.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
key metric
7,600 MMcfe/day production guide
this is the operating target for 2026. if production misses, the merger story loses one of its few hard supports.
trend
$600M merger savings target
the market already assumes the deal exists. what it still needs to see is the promised math showing up in margins and cash flow.
calendar
q1 2026 earnings report
estimated for may 5, 2026. you want production, costs, and integration commentary to move in the same direction for once.
risk
permanent CEO appointment
a permanent CEO would remove one source of uncertainty in a year already crowded with integration work and a houston move.
Analyst rankings
street midpoint
$136
the 3–5 year midpoint target sits about 32% above the current price. in human-speak, analysts think the savings story and gas backdrop eventually stop working against each other.
low target
$110
the cautious case is only about 5% above the current price. that tells you the floor case is not collapse. it is dead money.
high target
$165
the upside case implies about 60% appreciation. that is what happens if production hits guide and the $600M target becomes an earnings line, not a management promise.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 407 buyers vs. 370 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$89
$183
$103
current price
$136
target midpoint · +32% from current · 3-5yr high: $165 (+60% · 14% ann'l return)
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