XVARY Composite Score
64
/ 100
Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
Exelon delivers electricity and gas to 10.4 million customers across six regulated utilities.
How it gets paid
Last year Exelon made $24.3B in revenue. Residential electric was the main engine at $13.1B, or 54% of sales.
Why it's growing
Revenue grew 5.3% last year. Annual revenue reached $24.3B, up 5.3% vs. prior year, and management reaffirmed its outlook.
What just happened
Exelon posted a small beat, with EPS at $0.58 versus a $0.55 estimate.
At a Glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
80/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
16.5x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
5.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
XVARY composite: 64/100 — average
What They Do
Exelon delivers electricity and gas to 10.4 million customers across six regulated utilities.
This is a regulated utility wall, not a tech moat. Exelon serves 9.1 million electric customers and 1.3 million gas customers, so your local power bill keeps showing up whether the economy is hot or cold. Regulated utility → government-set returns on essential networks → so what: you get steadier earnings, but upside is capped by regulators.
How They Make Money
$24.3B
annual revenue · their business grew +5.3% last year
Residential electric
$13.1B
Small commercial and industrial
$3.9B
Large commercial and industrial
$4.1B
Other electric revenue
$3.2B
The Products That Matter
Regulated power and gas delivery
regulated utilities
$24.3B revenue · 100% of sales
this is the whole business: $24.3B of revenue collected from 10 million customers in exclusive service territories. there is no side hustle here.
100% of revenue
Approved earnings growth engine
rate base growth
5%–7% annual growth target
management's 5%–7% annual growth target depends on turning capital spending into regulated returns. in human-speak: build the grid, get approval, earn the spread.
core thesis
Grid investment and modernization
capital plan
part of a ~$45B investment plan
the ~$45B capital plan is the growth plan. it is also the financing test. that matters when long-term debt already sits at $46.3B.
watch financing
Key Numbers
$46.3B
long-term debt
That debt load is larger than Exelon's roughly $45B market cap, which tells you balance-sheet risk is the whole story here.
21.2%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business, before interest and taxes → so what: Exelon is efficient before debt costs show up.
5.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested → so what: this is a steady utility, not a business turning every dollar into magic.
95/100
price stability
The stock has been far less jumpy than most names, which is exactly why people own utilities in the first place.
Financial Health
A
Strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 95 / 100
- long-term debt $46.3B (51% of capital)
- return on equity 10% — $0.10 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A — balance sheet grade looks solid but long-term debt needs watching.
Total Return vs. Market
You invested $10000 in EXC 3 years ago → it's now worth $11980.
The index would have given you $14770.
source: institutional data · total return
What Just Happened
beat estimates
Exelon posted a small beat, with EPS at $0.58 versus a $0.55 estimate.
Annual revenue reached $24.3B, up 5.3% vs. prior year, and management reaffirmed its outlook. The bigger picture was the same as usual: steady execution, controlled costs, and no drama.
$18.8B
revenue
$0.58
eps
21.2%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The important number was the 5.45% EPS beat, because a regulated utility is supposed to be boring and precise.
-
Exelon delivered another steady quarter and remains on track to meet its full-year targets.
-
Results continued to reflect solid execution across the regulated utility portfolio, with effective cost control and constructive rate outcomes offsetting higher financing costs.
-
Management reaffirmed its earnings outlook and continues to target 5%-7% annual growth through 2028.
-
Despite recent stock price weakness, operating trends across the business remain consistent.
-
Capital investment remains the core driver of exelon’s long-term growth plan.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What Could Go Wrong
The main risk is specific, not abstract: exelon's six-utility model only works as advertised if commissions approve spending and let the company earn enough on it.
Med
Rate-case risk
exelon's exclusive service territories are the moat, but regulators decide what part of that investment base earns a return. if allowed returns come in light, the 5%–7% growth model weakens fast.
this risk touches 100% of the $24.3B revenue base because the whole business sits inside the regulated model.
Med
Financing-cost pressure
a ~$45B capital plan looks different when long-term debt is already $46.3B. if funding stays expensive, more of the approved return gets absorbed by interest expense instead of dropping to shareholders.
$46.3B of debt equal to 51% of capital gives exelon room to operate, but not room to forget the math.
Low
Capital-plan execution
the company is selling you on steady infrastructure spending, not a sudden demand spike. delays, cost overruns, or spending that regulators refuse to fully recognize would slow the earnings path.
the target is 5%–7% annual growth through 2028. miss the buildout, and the stock looks more like a bond substitute with less growth attached.
what would change our mind: if the 5%–7% growth target slips or financing pressure starts overwhelming approved returns, the case for paying above the $42 midpoint gets much thinner.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Earnings
Next earnings and outlook update
the headline number matters less than whether management still points to 5%–7% annual growth through 2028.
Metric
Debt versus investment pace
watch how $46.3B of long-term debt moves against the ~$45B capital plan. this is the balance-sheet math behind the story.
Risk
Rate-case outcomes
a regulated monopoly grows when commissions approve spending and allow a fair return. if those rulings tighten, so does the thesis.
Trend
Share price versus analyst midpoint
the stock is already above the $42 midpoint target. from here, upside needs better execution or better estimates, not just a calmer mood.
Analyst Rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think the stock could lag from here because the valuation already sits near the top of the recent range.
risk profile
above average
stability score 2 — safer than roughly 80% of stocks. this is the part utility investors are paying for.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — the chart looks better than the long-term target range, which is its own message.
earnings predictability
80 / 100
management usually lands near guidance. fewer surprises, fewer rescue narratives.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 596 buyers vs. 441 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.9B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$34
$50
$45
Current price
$42
Target midpoint · 6% from current · 3-5yr high: $70 (+55% · 14% ann'l return)
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