Start here if you're new
what it is
EOG finds oil and gas, pulls it out of the ground, and sells it for cash.
how it gets paid
Last year Eog Resources made $22.6B in revenue. Crude oil was the main engine at $14.7B, or 65% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 4.5% last year. That is a small miss of 1.3%, based on consensus data.
what just happened
Last quarter, EOG posted $2.27 in EPS versus a $2.30 estimate.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
45/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
11.2x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
3.8% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
15.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 65/100 — average
What they do
EOG finds oil and gas, pulls it out of the ground, and sells it for cash.
EOG wins by turning drilling into a returns business, not a volume contest. Return on capital was 15.5% and operating margin was 28.2%, based on. You are paying for a producer with $55.2 billion in pretax reserve value and just $7.7 billion of long-term debt.
How they make money
$22.6B
annual revenue · their business grew -4.5% last year
Crude oil
$14.7B
6.0%
Natural gas liquids
$3.4B
+4.0%
Natural gas
$3.0B
+2.0%
Gathering, processing and other
$1.5B
+1.0%
The products that matter
drills and sells oil and gas
Crude Oil & Natural Gas Production
$22.6B revenue · 49.5% operating margin
It's the entire $22.6B business. The key point is margin, not segmentation: a 49.5% operating margin tells you these assets are still highly economic.
core engine
business model reality check
No second growth engine
one core revenue line
The snapshot data does not show a separate services or downstream profit pool. If you own EOG, you are mostly underwriting one upstream business and the commodity cycle that comes with it.
keep it honest
what supports the equity
Balance Sheet & Payouts
$7.7B debt · 3.8% yield
The buffer here is financial, not structural. Low leverage and a 3.8% dividend yield help make a cyclical business easier to own.
shock absorber
Key numbers
15.5%
return on capital
Jargon: return on capital → profit on every dollar invested → so what: EOG still earns better than many producers.
11.2x
trailing p/e
Jargon: price-to-earnings → what investors pay for each dollar of profit → so what: the stock is priced like a cyclical, not a glamour name.
$55.2B
reserve value
That is the pretax present value of proved reserves, which gives you a hard-asset anchor under a $62B market cap.
3.8%
dividend yield
You are being paid while you wait, and the dividend growth rate was 31.5% in the past, with 7.0% projected.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 55 / 100
- long-term debt $7.7B (11% of capital)
- net profit margin 21.0% — keeps 21 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 20% — $0.20 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A — among the top-rated companies for balance sheet quality.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in EOG 3 years ago → it's now worth $10,040.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Last quarter, EOG posted $2.27 in EPS versus a $2.30 estimate.
That is a small miss of 1.3%, based on consensus data. The bigger frame is contrast: trailing EPS is $10.8, while forward EPS is estimated at $16.0.
$17.0B
revenue
$2.27
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
The key number is the 1.3% EPS miss, because it shows EOG is no longer clearing a low bar with ease.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is oil and natural gas price volatility.
high
oil and natural gas price volatility
EOG sells commodities it does not price. When crude or gas fall, revenue and margins follow them down.
100% of the $22.6B revenue base is exposed to market prices outside management's control.
med
earnings volatility
A 45/100 earnings predictability score is the market's way of saying quarterly results can get noisy fast.
If you want smooth estimates and tidy beats, this is the wrong sector.
med
regulation, permitting, and environmental costs
Drilling businesses live with shifting rules on land use, emissions, water, and permitting. Those costs rarely move in your favor.
The balance sheet can absorb pressure. It cannot make regulatory friction disappear.
A strong operator can manage costs. It cannot repeal the commodity cycle. That's why the stock trades at 11.2x earnings instead of a premium multiple.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next quarterly report
Watch production volumes, realized pricing, and whether that 49.5% operating margin holds up.
metric
revenue rebound toward $25B
The 2026 revenue estimate is $25B. If that slips, the cheap multiple will stop looking like an opportunity and start looking accurate.
risk
commodity tape
This is the big one. Oil and gas prices feed directly into revenue, earnings, and sentiment.
trend
capital efficiency
Return on capital is 15.0%. You want that number stable or improving if management is going to keep claiming a premium operating model.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
Momentum score 3. In human-speak, analysts do not see a strong near-term edge either way.
risk profile
average
Stability score 3 means typical stock risk overall, but remember that "typical" inside energy still comes with commodity swings.
chart momentum
average
Technical score 3 says the chart is not screaming anything dramatic right now. No breakout story. No collapse story.
earnings predictability
45 / 100
Lower predictability means estimate risk is real. Commodity-linked businesses rarely give you tidy quarterly patterns.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 730 buyers vs. 664 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.5B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$92
$181
$114
current price
$137
target midpoint · +20% from current · 3-5yr high: $270 (+135% · 26% ann'l return)
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