Cos.

Estée Lauder trades at 74.8x earnings while revenue fell 8.2%.

If you own EL, here's what you should know about your stock now.

el

energy large cap updated mar 6, 2026
$113.02
market cap ~$41B · 52-week range $48–$122
xvary composite: 58 / 100 · below average
our overall rating — combines growth, value, risk, and momentum
Start here if you're new
what it is
Estée Lauder sells skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care worldwide.
how it gets paid
Last year Cos made $14.3B in revenue. Skin care was the main engine at $7.4B, or 52% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 8.2% last year. The $0.89 adjusted EPS beat matters because it says the fix is working.
what just happened
$0.89 vs $0.81 beat on adjusted EPS, but reported EPS was $0.57.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
50/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
74.8x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
1.2% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
13.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 58/100 — below average
What they do
Estée Lauder sells skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care worldwide.
52% of sales come from skin care and 16% from fragrance. Those are repeat buys, not one-off gadgets. You are also buying a global brand set, since 69% of sales come from outside the U.S.
consumer-discretionary large-cap prestige-beauty international-sales valuation
How they make money
$14.3B annual revenue · their business grew -8.2% last year
Skin care
$7.4B
+7%
Makeup
$4.0B
n/a
Fragrance
$2.3B
+9%
Hair care
$0.6B
+6%
The products that matter
selling prestige skincare products
Skincare
$7.6B · 53% of sales
this $7.6B segment is 53% of total sales. When skincare improves, the company improves. When it slows, you feel it everywhere.
largest segment
selling prestige makeup brands
Makeup
$4.3B · 30% of sales
MAC and Bobbi Brown make this a $4.3B business. It still matters a lot. It just no longer gets to carry the whole company by itself.
brand engine
selling prestige fragrance brands
Fragrance
$2.3B · 16% of sales
Tom Ford and Jo Malone help make fragrance a $2.3B business. Smaller than skincare, but useful because premium scent usually keeps its pricing better than mass-market categories.
premium mix
Key numbers
74.8x
trailing P/E
You pay $74.80 for $1 of trailing profit. That is a rich price for a business with $14.3B of sales that just fell 8.2%.
75.1%
gross margin
The company keeps 75.1 cents of every sales dollar before overhead. That gives the recovery room if demand stays firm.
$93
VL target
sees 18% downside from the current $113.02 price. The stock is already above its own target.
$14.3B
annual revenue
That is still a huge sales base, but it is 8.2% smaller than a year ago. Big and shrinking is a bad mix.
Financial health
B++
strength
  • balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
  • risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
  • price stability 35 / 100
  • long-term debt $7.3B (15% of capital)
  • net profit margin 8.6% — keeps 9 cents of every dollar in revenue
  • return on equity 31% — $0.31 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market

You invested $10,000 in EL 3 years ago → it's now worth $4,780.

The index would have given you $13,880.

same period. same starting point. EL trailed the market by $9,100.

source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
$0.89 vs $0.81 beat on adjusted EPS, but reported EPS was $0.57.
Revenue was $7.7B, and gross margin held at 75.1%. The catch is that annual revenue still sat at $14.3B, down 8.2% vs. prior year.
$7.7B
revenue
$0.57
eps
75.1%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The $0.89 adjusted EPS beat matters because it says the fix is working, but the $0.57 reported EPS says the bill is still there.
source: company earnings report, 2026

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What could go wrong

the risk is not that Estée Lauder loses its brands overnight. the risk is that the recovery stays too shallow for a stock priced this tightly.

∘
med
China fades again
Mainland China grew 13% in Q2 2026 after 9% in Q1. That is the cleanest piece of evidence that the turnaround is real. If that momentum rolls over, the best part of the story weakens fast.
At 74.8x trailing earnings, a softer China print hurts confidence before it even has time to hurt revenue.
∘
med
multiple compression
The stock trades at about 51x FY2026 EPS and 74.8x trailing earnings while guidance calls for 3%–5% sales growth. That is a premium multiple on top of a still-rebuilding profit base.
If earnings hover around $2.20 instead of climbing much higher, the multiple becomes the risk you own.
∘
med
margin rebuild stalls
Gross margin improved by 40 basis points, but net margin is still 6.8%. That gap matters. Better sales help, but the turnaround needs more profit, not just less weak demand.
A few okay quarters without stronger profitability leave you with a better narrative and the same valuation problem.
∘
med
prestige demand weakens
This is discretionary beauty. The whole $14.3B revenue base depends on customers still being willing to trade up, and the $7.6B skincare business carries the most weight.
If aspirational spending slows, the biggest segment gets pressured first and the recovery math gets harder everywhere else.
the key insight: EL does not need a collapse to disappoint you. It just needs recovery to land below the level already implied by $113.02 a share.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next earnings report
The stock already front-ran the recovery. You want proof that the 3%–5% sales growth setup is still intact and that the next quarter looks like progress, not a pause.
metric
mainland China growth
Q2 printed 13% after 9% in Q1. If that holds, the recovery case keeps its cleanest proof point. If it slips, the whole page reads differently.
trend
margin recovery
Gross margin improved by 40 basis points, but net margin is still 6.8%. The next step is getting recovery all the way to the bottom line.
risk
valuation discipline
74.8x trailing and about 51x forward earnings leave little room for a merely okay quarter. This stock needs follow-through, not forgiveness.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts see a stock acting normal after a very abnormal rebound.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — middle-of-the-pack on paper, but a 35/100 price stability score tells you this is no bunker stock.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the tape is not giving you a fresh clue right now. The business has to do the work from here.
earnings predictability
50 / 100
Halfway predictability means surprises still matter. You should expect the next few quarters to move the debate more than usual.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity

institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 345 buyers vs. 268 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 2 quarters.

source: institutional data · 2q2025-4q2025
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$39 $147
$113 current price
$93 target midpoint · 18% from current · 3-5yr high: $155 (+35% · 9% ann'l return)
source: institutional data · analyst targets

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