XVARY Composite Score
33
/ 100
Weak
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
Start here if you're new
What it is
VAALCO drills for oil in Africa, and one offshore Gabon block pays most of the bills.
How it gets paid
Last year Vaalco Energy made $479M in revenue. Etame Marin production was the main engine at $479M, or 100% of sales.
What just happened
The quarter was about scale: revenue hit $268M and EPS reached $0.16.
At a Glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
13.1x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
4.6% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
10.6% return on capital — nothing to write home about
XVARY composite: 33/100 — weak
What They Do
VAALCO drills for oil in Africa, and one offshore Gabon block pays most of the bills.
This is not a brand moat. It is an operator moat. Operator (the company runs the field) → plain English: VAALCO controls day-to-day drilling and spending at Etame → so what: you are not waiting for a partner to rescue your quarter. The Etame Marin block covers 46,200 gross acres and accounts for about 100% of current revenue, which gives you focus, speed, and one very obvious dependency.
How They Make Money
$479M
annual revenue
Etame Marin production
$479M
+41.0%
Gabon exploration
$0M
0.0%
Angola exploration
$0M
0.0%
Equatorial Guinea development
$0M
0.0%
Egypt interests
$0M
0.0%
The Products That Matter
Offshore oil production
Gabon Operations
18,700–20,600 barrels per day forecast
This is the core asset. Management's Q1 2026 forecast calls for 18,700–20,600 barrels per day, and hitting that range is the fastest path back from a $41.4M annual loss.
turnaround metric
Floating production project
Côte d'Ivoire FPSO
execution risk
This is the growth project that matters next. The company itself flagged it as the biggest near-term threat, which tells you the upside and the risk sit in the same place.
watch closely
Shareholder returns program
Dividend + buybacks
$115M returned since 2021
Vaalco has returned $115M to shareholders since 2021, but the annual dividend alone costs $26.5M. That is easier to sustain from profits than from hope.
capital allocation test
Key Numbers
4.6%
dividend yield
You are being paid 4.6% a year to own a stock that still behaves like a small, oil-price-sensitive producer.
28.5%
operating margin
Operating margin (profit after running the business) → plain English: how much is left from each sales dollar before interest and taxes → so what: VAALCO keeps about $0.29 of every revenue dollar.
10.6%
return on capital
Return on capital (profit from money invested in the business) → plain English: how hard management makes your money work → so what: this is decent, not elite.
$131M
long-term debt
Debt is real here. It is 19% of capital, which means VAALCO has room, but not endless room, for mistakes.
Financial Health
C++
Strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 15 / 100
- long-term debt $131M (19% of capital)
C++ — below average. watch for debt servicing and cash burn.
Total Return vs. Market
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What Just Happened
beat estimates
The quarter was about scale: revenue hit $268M and EPS reached $0.16.
Revenue rose 340% vs. prior year to $268M, while EPS reached $0.16 — vs. prior year EPS percentages blow up when the prior comparison is tiny, so verify the filing window instead of treating triple-digit feed math as the story. The quiet part: a company expected to do $479M for the full year just printed more than half of that in one quarter.
$268M
revenue
$0.16
eps
28.5%
operating margin
the number that mattered
$268M matters most because one quarter at that level annualizes to about $1.07B, versus the $479M full-year revenue base.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What Could Go Wrong
The #1 risk here is production ramp failure in gabon while the company is already loss-making.
High
Production misses the Q1 2026 target
Management forecast 18,700–20,600 barrels per day for Q1 2026. That's not a side metric. It's the operating number the turnaround rests on.
A miss would weaken the case that earnings normalize from here.
High
Negative cash flow meets a 4.6% dividend
The company expects significant negative cash flow to start 2026, and the dividend costs $26.5M annually.
If cash burn persists, management may have to choose between funding growth, protecting the balance sheet, or defending the payout.
Med
Côte d'Ivoire FPSO execution slips
The company called this project its biggest near-term threat. When management says the risk out loud, you should listen.
Delays would pressure the growth narrative and keep more weight on the existing asset base.
Med
Single-region concentration
Operations are concentrated in African offshore fields. That means geopolitical and operational disruption are not background noise. They are part of the business model.
With quarterly revenue recently at $91.0M, even one disrupted period would be felt quickly.
Combined, these risks threaten the two things investors are paying for: a production recovery and a dividend that still looks credible.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Earnings
Q1 2026 earnings report
Expected around May 14, 2026. This is where you find out whether the production plan is real or just a slide.
Production
Gabon output vs. 18,700–20,600 barrels per day
That forecast range is the most important number on the page. Hitting it keeps the turnaround alive.
Project risk
Côte d'Ivoire FPSO updates
The company already flagged this as the biggest near-term threat. Delays here would hit confidence fast.
Cash flow
Whether losses start shrinking
After a $41.4M full-year loss and expectations for negative cash flow early in 2026, you want trend improvement, not another reset.
Analyst Rankings
earnings predictability
20 / 100
Low predictability means the numbers can swing hard from quarter to quarter. In human-speak: analysts do not have a clean line of sight here.
risk profile
4
Risk rank 4 means this sits on the riskier end of the market. You are getting commodity exposure, project exposure, and small-cap volatility in one package.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutional ownership data for EGY is being compiled.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$4
Current price
Target midpoint · from current
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