Start here if you're new
what it is
Brinker runs Chili’s and Maggiano’s, selling you burgers, fajitas, pasta, and a lot of operating leverage.
how it gets paid
Last year Eat made $5.4B in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 21.9% last year. Revenue was about $1.45B in the quarter, and Chili’s company-owned same-store sales rose 8.6%.
what just happened
Brinker posted $2.87 EPS in the December quarter, beating the $2.50 estimate by 14.8%.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
40/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
18.2x trailing p/e — priced about right
43.0% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 62/100 — average
What they do
Brinker runs Chili’s and Maggiano’s, selling you burgers, fajitas, pasta, and a lot of operating leverage.
This is a scale story wearing a skillet. Chili’s has 1,109 company-owned U.S. stores and 463 franchise units worldwide, which spreads ad spend, labor systems, and food purchasing across a huge base. Return on capital is 43.0% (return on capital → profit produced from each dollar invested → this chain turns restaurant boxes into cash better than most peers).
How they make money
$5.4B
annual revenue · their business grew +21.9% last year
total revenue
$5.4B
+21.9%
The products that matter
casual dining chain
Chili's
roughly 92% of sales · 8.6% same-store sales growth
this is where most of the $5.4B revenue base shows up, and traffic rose 2.7% even with pricing up 4.4% in the december quarter.
core driver
italian casual dining chain
Maggiano's
roughly 8% of revenue · 2.4% same-store sales decline
it is the smaller brand, but the pain is outsized: restaurant operating profit fell 36% last quarter.
the drag
value pricing strategy
"3 for me" promotion
helped sustain 8.6% same-store sales growth
the value pitch kept customers showing up after a 31.4% advance in the prior-year period. That's the part the market is testing now.
traffic lever
Key numbers
43.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit from each dollar invested → Brinker turns restaurant spending into returns that most chains would trade a fryer for.
$5.4B
annual revenue
Revenue hit $5.4B, up 21.9% vs. prior year, which tells you this was not a tiny margin trick.
$8.90
fy2025 EPS
EPS → profit per share → earnings more than doubled from $4.10 in 2024, so the stock move had actual fuel.
14.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → money left after running the restaurants → 14.0% is strong for casual dining and shows pricing plus traffic both worked.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 20 / 100
- long-term debt $451M (6% of capital)
- net profit margin 8.4% — keeps 8 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 52% — $0.52 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in EAT 3 years ago → it's now worth $40,060.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Brinker posted $2.87 EPS in the December quarter, beating the $2.50 estimate by 14.8%.
Revenue was about $1.45B in the quarter, and Chili’s company-owned same-store sales rose 8.6%. Higher prices of 4.4% and favorable mix did the lifting.
$1.45B
revenue
$2.87
eps
14.4%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The key number was Chili’s 8.6% same-store sales growth, because comps → sales at existing stores → proof demand is still there after last year’s surge.
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brinker’s chili’s chain remains a standout performer in the restaurant industry.
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same-store sales for companyowned locations rose 8.6% in the december quarter, with higher prices (4.4%), favorable mix changes (1.5%), and increased traffic (2.7%) all contributing to the growth.
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the performance was particularly impressive, as it represented a follow-up to the remarkable 31.4% advance posted in the prior-year period.the improvement has been aided by a variety of factors, including the upgrading of key menu items, consumer enthusiasm for the valueoriented ‘‘3 for me’’ promotion, and favorable attention on social media.
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the earnings outlook for fiscal 2026 has improved. (year ends june 27th.) december-quarter profits of $2.87 a share were up just 3% vs. prior year, but surpassed our estimate by $0.37.
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brinker was able to overcome not only a difficult comparison at chili’s, but ongoing weakness at maggiano’s (about 8% of total revenues), where restaurant operating profits slumped 36% on a 2.4% decline in samestore sales.these challenges will likely persist through the current quarter, which also figures to include a $0.15 earnings hit from last month’s winter storms.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is chili's traffic giving back the gains from the "3 for me" value push.
med
the chili's traffic story cools off
same-store sales rose 8.6%, but only 2.7% came from traffic. If guests stop showing up and pricing does all the work, the rerating gets harder to defend.
the stock is priced for continued momentum, while the business only keeps 8.6% of revenue as net profit.
med
maggiano's stops being small enough to ignore
the brand is about 8% of revenue, but restaurant operating profit fell 36% last quarter on a 2.4% same-store sales decline.
a weak side brand can still drag group margins and distract management if the slump keeps deepening.
med
cost pressure shows up faster than pricing power
restaurants live in the gap between labor and food costs on one side and menu prices on the other. That gap is not wide here.
with net margin at 8.6% and a current-quarter storm hit already estimated at $0.15 per share, you do not need much bad luck to dent earnings.
the combined risk picture is simple: a stock that has massively outperformed now depends on chili's keeping traffic positive while margins stay near 8.6%.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
chili's traffic growth
2.7% traffic growth mattered more than the 4.4% pricing lift. If traffic stays positive, the value story is still working.
trend
maggiano's profit slide
same-store sales fell 2.4% and restaurant operating profit dropped 36%. You want that decline to stop getting worse.
calendar
next earnings report
watch whether fiscal 2026 expectations keep rising after the latest $0.37 earnings beat.
risk
margin durability
net margin is 8.6%. The catch is that restaurants do not need a major shock to move that number the wrong way.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — in human-speak, analysts think the stock still has better near-term odds than most of the market.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — you are not in bunker territory, but this is not a chaos stock either.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart says the easy part of the move may be behind you.
earnings predictability
40 / 100
estimate risk is real. quarterly numbers can move around more than the multiple suggests.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
238 buyers vs. 258 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 49.1M shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$126
$282
$162
current price
$204
target midpoint · +26% from current · 3-5yr high: $270 (+65% · 14% ann'l return)
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