XVARY Composite Score
72
/ 100
Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
DaVita runs 3,247 dialysis clinics and related care for people with chronic kidney failure.
How it gets paid
Last year Davita made $13.6B in revenue. Medicare/Medicaid dialysis was the main engine at $8.30B, or 61% of sales.
Why it's growing
Revenue grew 6.5% last year. Revenue reached $3.62B, up 10% from $3.29B. The quarter also posted a 20.4% operating margin, and management guided 2026 adjusted EPS to $13.60-$15.00.
What just happened
Q4 EPS hit $3.40 versus $2.99 expected, a 13.71% beat.
At a Glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
70/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
13.8x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
12.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
XVARY composite: 72/100 — average
What They Do
DaVita runs 3,247 dialysis clinics and related care for people with chronic kidney failure.
DaVita runs 3,247 clinics. That scale is hard to copy. Government programs fund 61% of reimbursement, versus 32% from commercial payers, so the business sits in a pay mix others cannot easily steal. If you need dialysis three times a week, your schedule and clinic relationship become the product.
How They Make Money
$13.6B
annual revenue · their business grew +6.5% last year
Medicare/Medicaid dialysis
$8.30B
Commercial dialysis
$4.35B
Other government dialysis
$0.95B
The Products That Matter
Outpatient dialysis treatment
Dialysis Services
$13.6B revenue · 100% of sales
it's the entire revenue engine: ~295,000 patients treated across 3,242 centers. if this business stalls, there is nowhere else for the numbers to hide.
core
Minority home-health stake
Elara Caring Investment
~$200M investment
the approximate $200M minority investment adds exposure to home healthcare and hospice, but next to a $13.6B core dialysis business, this is optionality — not the thesis.
adjacent bet
Lab and support services
Ancillary Services
supports 3,242 centers
these services help keep care delivery running for ~295,000 patients, but the snapshot does not break out separate revenue. that makes them operationally important, not yet investable on their own.
support layer
Key Numbers
13.8x
trailing p/e
Price-to-earnings → price divided by last year's profit → you pay 13.8 years of earnings for the stock. That is cheaper than a lot of healthcare at 19.0% operating margin.
$10.2B
long-term debt
Debt → borrowed money → DaVita owes $10.2B, which is 55% of capital. That limits room if rates stay high.
19.0%
operating margin
Margin → profit left after paying operating costs → 19.0% says the business keeps $19 from every $100 of sales.
12.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit from money invested → 12.5% says each $100 invested earns $12.50.
Financial Health
B+
Strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 55 / 100
- long-term debt $10.2B (55% of capital)
- net profit margin 7.6% — keeps 8 cents of every dollar in revenue
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
You invested $10000 in DVA 3 years ago → it's now worth $17790.
The index would have given you $13880.
source: institutional data · total return
What Just Happened
beat estimates
Q4 EPS hit $3.40 versus $2.99 expected, a 13.71% beat.
Revenue reached $3.62B, up 10% from $3.29B. The quarter also posted a 20.4% operating margin, and management guided 2026 adjusted EPS to $13.60-$15.00.
$3.62B
revenue
$3.40
eps
20.4%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The $3.40 print beat $2.99 by 13.71%, and that is the number that told the market the quarter was stronger than expected.
-
Davita reported strong fourth-quarter results.
-
Consolidated revenues of $3.62 billion represented a 10% increase over the prior-year period tally of $3.29 billion, with a 0.9% increase in u.s. treatment volumes per day.an increase in average reimbursement rates, along with the seasonal benefit from flu vaccines, and overall improved product mix, drove the revenue gain. revenue per treatment increased $12.01 sequentially, with higher patient responsibility for copays and deductibles contributing as well. management proved increasingly aggressive with its stock-repurchasing activity during the december interim, buying back 2.7 million shares for $331 million, at an average price of $122.78 per share. this contributed further to driving adjusted diluted earnings per share of $3.40, handily exceeding our forecast of $2.99, as well as the wall street consensus.
-
Leadership also provided an encouraging outlook for 2026, projecting adjusted earnings per share to range between $13.60 and $15.00, reflecting 33% growth at the midpoint when compared to the full-year 2025 figure of $10.78.
-
Long term, we are modeling 7%–11% annual adjusted share-earnings gains, slightly below projection.as of december 31st, davita provided dialysis services to approximately 295,000 patients at 3,242 outpatient dialysis centers.
-
Davita has announced a strategic investment into elara caring, an acute home healthcare hospice provider.the approximate $200 million minority investment, made alongside a majority investment from ares private equity funds, is targeted for a mid-year closing.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What Could Go Wrong
The #1 risk is dialysis reimbursement pressure from medicare and private insurers. davita can operate 3,242 centers efficiently, but it cannot unilaterally raise the price of a regulated treatment.
Med
Reimbursement rate cuts
this business lives on what payors decide a dialysis treatment is worth. if government or commercial reimbursement tightens, revenue and margin feel it immediately.
a 5% rate cut would pressure roughly $680M of annual revenue against a business that only posts a 7.3% net margin.
Med
Slow treatment-volume growth
u.s. treatment volumes per day grew 0.9% last quarter. that's positive, but it leaves very little cushion if patient growth stalls or treatment frequency softens.
the snapshot does not break out enough per-treatment detail to size the revenue hit precisely, but with only 0.9% volume growth, there is not much buffer.
Med
Balance sheet constraint
$10.2B in long-term debt equals 55% of capital. that does not make the equity broken, but it does mean policy pressure and operating slips compound faster.
when a company with an $8B market cap carries $10.2B in long-term debt, room for error is finite.
reimbursement pressure reaches essentially all of the $13.6B revenue base, and the $10.2B debt load means even a steady operator does not get unlimited second chances.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Earnings
Next guidance check
watch whether management keeps 2026 adjusted eps guidance at $13.60–$15.00 or starts trimming the low end.
Metric
Revenue per treatment
last quarter got a $12.01 sequential lift in revenue per treatment. if that fades, the recent revenue acceleration gets harder to repeat.
Trend
Treatment-volume direction
u.s. treatment volumes per day rose 0.9%. you want that number at least stable, because this is still a recurring-treatment business before it's anything else.
Risk
Buybacks versus debt
management repurchased 2.7M shares for $331M last quarter. good for eps, but with $10.2B in debt, capital allocation discipline matters.
Analyst Rankings
short-term outlook
top 5%
momentum score 1 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the next stretch. in human-speak: they like the setup right now.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — neither bunker-safe nor especially fragile.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the stock's recent tape is weaker than the short-term fundamental rank suggests. welcome to conflicting signals.
earnings predictability
70 / 100
the business is recurring, but reimbursement, buybacks, and adjusted-versus-reported definitions can still create surprises.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 207 buyers vs. 348 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 67.2M shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$114
$249
$149
Current price
$182
Target midpoint · +22% from current · 3-5yr high: $330 (+120% · 22% ann'l return)
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