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what it is
Duke sells electricity and natural gas to 10.1 million customer accounts and gets paid through monthly utility bills.
how it gets paid
Last year Duke Energy made $31.7B in revenue. Residential electric was the main engine at $10.8B, or 34% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 5.6% last year. The miss was only $0.03 per share, or 1.96%, which tells you the business is stable but the stock now gets judged on clean execution.
what just happened
The last quarter was a small miss: $1.50 EPS versus a $1.53 estimate.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
100/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
18.7x trailing p/e — priced about right
5.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 70/100 — average
What they do
Duke sells electricity and natural gas to 10.1 million customer accounts and gets paid through monthly utility bills.
Your power bill is the moat. Duke serves 8.4 million electric customers and 1.7 million gas customers across regulated territories, so leaving is usually not your call. Regulated utility → state-approved monopoly with allowed returns → so what: captive customers turn basic household bills into steady earnings.
How they make money
$31.7B
annual revenue · their business grew +5.6% last year
Residential electric
$10.8B
Commercial electric
$9.8B
Industrial electric
$5.7B
Other electric
$5.4B
The products that matter
delivers regulated electric service
Electric Utilities
8.4M customers served
this is the center of gravity. the company serves 8.4 million electric and gas customers and generated $31.7B in revenue last year, with the electric grid doing most of the heavy lifting.
core
regulated natural gas distribution
Gas Utilities
inside the $31.7B base
gas service adds to the same regulated earnings model, but this snapshot does not break out segment revenue. that's thin data, not a hidden segment. you are still underwriting the same monopoly utility logic.
steady
grid and generation buildout
Renewables and grid investment
$79.3B debt context
this is where the capital intensity shows up. Duke can invest for cleaner generation and grid upgrades, but with $79.3B in long-term debt, every project also has a financing cost attached.
capital sink
Key numbers
18.7x
trailing p/e
P/E → stock price divided by last year's profit → so what: you are paying 18.7x earnings for a utility with projected 4.0% sales growth and 6.0% earnings growth.
$79.3B
long-term debt
That equals 46% of capital, so Duke is stable because regulators allow it to be, not because the balance sheet is light.
27.2%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business, before interest and taxes → so what: regulated rates let Duke keep more than a quarter of revenue after operating costs.
5.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit generated from the money tied up in the business → so what: Duke is efficient enough for a utility, but not efficient enough to justify a huge premium.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 1 — safer than 95% of stocks
- price stability 100 / 100
- long-term debt $79.3B (46% of capital)
- return on equity 10% — $0.10 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A — balance sheet grade looks solid but long-term debt needs watching.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in DUK 3 years ago → it's now worth $13,190.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
The last quarter was a small miss: $1.50 EPS versus a $1.53 estimate.
Revenue was about $7.94 billion in the quarter, above the roughly $7.57 billion analysts expected, but the earnings line still came in light. That is the utility version of selling more electricity and still leaving pennies on the table.
$7.94B
revenue
$1.50
eps
27.2%
operating margin
the number that mattered
The miss was only $0.03 per share, or 1.96%, which tells you the business is stable but the stock now gets judged on clean execution.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is regulatory pushback on rate recovery and grid spending.
med
rate-case disallowance
Duke's model depends on regulators approving enough spending and allowed returns to justify the buildout. If that approval slows, the earnings engine slows with it.
This matters because the company is funding a $31.7B revenue utility base with $79.3B of long-term debt. The balance sheet assumes recovery.
med
higher financing costs
Utilities borrow first and earn later. With debt equal to 46% of capital, Duke feels changes in capital costs more than an asset-light business ever would.
A company earning 5.5% on capital does not have much room for financing mistakes. The spread matters.
med
storm and grid reliability costs
When the lights go out, utilities spend now and argue about cost recovery later. That timing gap can pressure cash flow even in a stable business.
Serving 8.4 million customers is the moat. It also means operating mistakes and weather events show up at scale.
When a utility earns 5.5% on capital and carries $79.3B of long-term debt, small regulatory or financing setbacks do not stay small for long.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
debt versus earnings growth
$79.3B of long-term debt is manageable only if EPS keeps moving beyond the current $6.70 estimate.
calendar
the next rate and capital update
This is the real event stream for Duke. You are not waiting for viral products. You are waiting for approved spending and allowed returns.
risk
return on capital staying stuck
If return on capital stays around 5.5% while financing costs rise, the regulated utility math gets tighter.
trend
defensive flow still showing up
Three straight quarters of net institutional buying say the market still sees Duke as a safe harbor. Watch for that to continue or fade.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts do not expect Duke to outrun the market from here.
risk profile
safest 5%
stability score 1 — lower risk of permanent loss than almost any stock you can buy.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the stock is behaving like a utility, not sending some secret signal.
earnings predictability
100 / 100
management usually delivers what the market expects. That reliability is part of why investors accept the modest growth profile.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 1,186 buyers vs. 824 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.5B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$105
$146
$119
current price
$126
target midpoint · +6% from current · 3-5yr high: $170 (+45% · 12% ann'l return)
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