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what it is
Domino’s sells pizza through a giant mostly franchised store network and a supply chain that feeds those stores.
how it gets paid
Last year S Pizza made $4.9B in revenue. Domestic supply chain operations was the main engine at $3.43B, or 70% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 5.0% last year. The beat was small at 1.33%, but the setup matters because the fourth quarter is usually the company’s strongest period.
what just happened
Domino’s cleared expectations, with last reported earnings of $5.35 a share versus a $5.28 estimate.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
95/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
23.4x trailing p/e — priced about right
2.0% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
66.5% return on capital — a money-printing machine
xvary composite: 56/100 — below average
What they do
Domino’s sells pizza through a giant mostly franchised store network and a supply chain that feeds those stores.
Domino’s has 21,750 stores, and about 99% are franchised. Franchised means other people pay to open and run the stores, so your pizza habit can send cash to Domino’s without Domino’s funding most rent or labor. It also runs dough, vegetable, and equipment facilities, which keeps the system tight and helps produce a 66.5% return on capital.
How they make money
$4.9B
annual revenue · their business grew +5.0% last year
Domestic supply chain operations
$3.43B
U.S. franchise royalties and fees
$0.98B
International franchise royalties and fees
$0.34B
Company-owned stores and other
$0.15B
The products that matter
sells pizza through stores
Pizza Delivery & Carryout
$4.9B revenue · 100% of disclosed sales
it's the entire $4.9B revenue base shown on this page, and it grew 5.0% last year. that is still the center of gravity.
core
collects franchise fees
Franchise Royalties & Fees
20,000+ store network
this is the recurring part of the story, tied to more than 20,000 stores. this page does not break out the revenue, so we will not pretend it does.
recurring
supplies the franchise system
Supply Chain
supports 20,000+ stores
supplying ingredients across a 20,000+-store network is part of the edge. it also means food-cost swings can move through the whole system fast.
scale edge
Key numbers
$23.35
fy2027 eps est
$6B
fy2027 rev est
23.4x
trailing p/e
2.0%
dividend yield
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 75 / 100
- long-term debt $4.8B (26% of capital)
- net profit margin 16.0% — keeps 16 cents of every dollar in revenue
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in DPZ 3 years ago → it's now worth $11,850.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Domino’s cleared expectations, with last reported earnings of $5.35 a share versus a $5.28 estimate.
The beat was small at 1.33%, but the setup matters because the fourth quarter is usually the company’s strongest period. The latest quarter also showed revenue of $3.4B and gross margin of 40.1% in the figures provided.
$3.4B
revenue
$5.35
eps
40.1%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 1.33% earnings beat matters because a company with 95 earnings predictability usually wins by execution, not by surprise theatrics.
-
we’ve become more conservative regarding our near-term revenue estimates for domino’s pizza.
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for much of 2025, the pizza chain delivered good same-store sales progress.
-
fourth-quarter results will be released on february 24th.
-
the final period of a year is typically the strongest.
-
we suspect that full-year receipts tallied $4.935 billion, up 5%, versus 2024.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is franchisee economics weakening across a 20,000+-store system.
med
franchisee health and traffic softness
domino's depends on more than 20,000 stores staying healthy. if order volume cools or franchisee economics tighten, the hit shows up in both royalties and supply chain.
that puts pressure on the full $4.9B revenue base, not one niche product line.
med
food, labor, and delivery-cost pressure
25.5% operating margin is strong. it also trains investors to expect that strength every quarter. cost inflation has a habit of making steady models look less steady.
if margins slip while revenue only grows 5.0%, the stock's 23.4x trailing p/e starts to look rich fast.
med
$4.8B in long-term debt
B balance sheet grade is fine, not bulletproof. with $4.8B of long-term debt, you have less room for an operating stumble than the 95/100 predictability score suggests at first glance.
debt equals 26% of capital. manageable today. less comfortable if growth cools at the same time.
med
multiple compression
DPZ turned $10,000 into $11,850 over three years while the index reached $13,880. add 348 institutional buyers versus 386 sellers, and you can see the enthusiasm gap.
the business can stay good while the stock still stalls if investors stop paying a premium for predictability.
a slowdown here would hit a business doing $4.9B in revenue with $4.8B of debt and a 23.4x trailing multiple. the company has a cushion. the stock has less.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
whether the next report keeps EPS near the recent $4.08 quarter run-rate
you want another clean quarter on revenue and margin, not a beat held together by one line item.
metric
revenue holding near the current 5.0% growth pace
at 23.4x trailing earnings, steady mid-single-digit growth is not exciting. it is required.
trend
same-store sales and traffic quality
a mature brand does not need fireworks. it does need proof that customers are still ordering often enough to keep the system compounding.
risk
debt and sentiment moving the same way
$4.8B in debt is workable while fundamentals are fine. pair weaker numbers with continued net institutional selling and the tone changes fast.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3. in human-speak, analysts think this behaves more or less like the market from here, not like a stock breaking away on its own.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 means middle-of-the-road risk. not a bunker stock, not a rollercoaster.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 says the tape is not doing you favors right now.
earnings predictability
95 / 100
few surprises. management and analysts usually meet in roughly the same place.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
348 buyers vs. 386 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 33.1M shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$342
$613
$409
current price
$478
target midpoint · +17% from current · 3-5yr high: $950 (+130% · 25% ann'l return)
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