Start here if you're new
what it is
Denali makes drugs meant to cross the blood-brain barrier for rare brain diseases.
how it gets paid
Product revenue is effectively zero until approvals; collaboration, milestone, and partnership revenue can still show up in SEC filings—read the latest 10-Q revenue footnote instead of assuming a literal $0 line every quarter.
what just happened
Recent reports still center on losses (on the order of a few dollars per share annually, depending on period); tie any EPS figure to the same quarter or year in the 10-Q/10-K.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
-$2.57 fy2024 eps est
valuation driven by pipeline — not by near-term product sales
1.6 beta
xvary composite: 49/100 — below average
What they do
Denali makes drugs meant to cross the blood-brain barrier for rare brain diseases.
TransportVehicleTM → a drug shuttle → it is the trick meant to get medicine past the blood-brain barrier. You have 422 employees and $35M of long-term debt, so this is a lean science bet, not a bloated one. That same platform can feed DNL310, DNL126, and DNL593.
How they make money
$0
product revenue (annual) · collaboration lines may still appear in SEC filings
The products that matter
lead Parkinson's program
DNL151 (LRRK2 inhibitor)
lead clinical asset
It is the kind of asset that can justify a ~$3B valuation even while product revenue stays at $0. That's why this name trades on readouts, not sales.
lead asset
blood-brain barrier delivery platform
TV platform (TfR)
15+ programs supported
This platform is meant to do the hard part in brain drug development — get medicine into the brain. It helps explain why investors will fund 15+ programs before a single commercial launch.
platform bet
Key numbers
$3B
market cap
You are paying ~$3B for a company with $0 product revenue on this page’s definition. That is a lot of hope per share.
$0
annual product revenue
No product sales means the stock lives or dies on trial data, not customer demand—collaboration lines can still show up in filings (see risk stack).
422
employees
A 422-person company is lean. If the science works, overhead is not the thing dragging it down.
1.6
beta
A 1.6 beta means the stock tends to move 60% more than the market. Your stomach pays for that.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 10 / 100
- long-term debt $35M (1% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for DNLI right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Denali posted $0 in product revenue in the cited window and lost $2.24 a share there—versus the score-strip -$2.57 FY EPS estimate (different line: actual/period mix vs consensus FY).
EDGAR can still show collaboration or milestone lines while product sales read ~$0 in the same print—tie each dollar to the revenue footnote. Pre-commercial → no product sales yet → the market is still paying for trial data, not customers.
$0
product rev. (q)
-$2.24
eps (q)
0.00%
gross margin
the number that mattered
Revenue stayed at $0. That is the whole story until one program turns into actual sales.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
The #1 risk is clinical failure in DNL151 or another lead neuroscience program. With $0 product revenue, DNLI does not have a mature business model to catch the fall.
med
clinical readouts disappoint
A negative or inconclusive result in DNL151 or another lead program would hit the core reason investors tolerate the current valuation. This is a pipeline stock first and a revenue story second.
Impact: the ~$3B market cap is being carried by future drug economics that do not exist yet in reported product revenue.
med
cash burn turns into dilution
A -$512.5M net loss is manageable with $1.5B in cash, but only for so long. If timelines slip, new capital can show up before commercial progress does.
Impact: persistent losses near the current level would make future funding more likely even with just $35M in long-term debt.
med
partner revenue looks better than it is
Collaboration revenue of $101M sounds like traction. Sometimes it is. Sometimes it is just milestone timing. You cannot value this like recurring software revenue and call it diversification.
Impact: if milestone payments fade while product revenue stays at $0, the reported top line can shrink fast without changing the science at all.
A -$512.5M annual loss against $1.5B in cash gives Denali runway. It does not give you a finished business.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
next earnings report
Estimated for may 5, 2026. For DNLI, the useful questions are cash burn, collaboration revenue, and whether timelines moved.
risk
lead-asset trial updates
DNL151 matters because the stock does not have product revenue to absorb a bad headline. One major setback can rewrite the whole valuation.
metric
the loss line vs. the cash pile
Keep the current -$512.5M net loss next to the $1.5B cash balance. That comparison tells you how much patience the company can buy.
trend
collaboration revenue quality
$101M and +136% growth look strong. The question is whether that reflects repeatable partner economics or one-off milestone timing.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
20 / 100
Low predictability. In human-speak, analysts do not have a stable operating machine to model here.
risk rank
3
Middle of the pack on broad risk scoring. The cash balance helps. The clinical binary keeps it from feeling safe.
beta
1.6
Beta measures how much the stock tends to swing versus the market. At 1.6, DNLI usually moves more than the index.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for DNLI is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$21
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive