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what it is
Dollar Tree sells cheap everyday stuff through nearly 8,900 U.S. stores and 253 Canadian stores after dumping Family Dollar.
how it gets paid
Last year Dollar Tree made $19.4B in revenue. Consumables was the main engine at $7.8B, or 40% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 10.4% last year. Full-year sales rose 10.4% to $19.4B. The business also delivered 5.3% same-store sales growth.
what just happened
Dollar Tree posted fiscal Q4 revenue of $5.45B and adjusted EPS of $2.56, both ahead of expectations.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
22.4x trailing p/e — priced about right
19.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 72/100 — average
What they do
Dollar Tree sells cheap everyday stuff through nearly 8,900 U.S. stores and 253 Canadian stores after dumping Family Dollar.
You do not visit Dollar Tree for brand romance. You visit because toothpaste, paper towels, and party junk still need to be cheap on Thursday night. That traffic showed up in a 5.3% same-store sales gain in fiscal 2025, while the business still posted a 12.0% operating margin (operating margin → profit after running the stores → so what: low-price retail is still throwing off real money).
How they make money
$19.4B
annual revenue · their business grew +10.4% last year
Consumables
$7.8B
Variety merchandise
$4.9B
Home products
$3.4B
Seasonal goods
$2.8B
Dollar Tree Canada
$0.5B
The products that matter
discount store network
Dollar Tree & Family Dollar Stores
$19.4B revenue · 16,000+ stores
this network produced the full $19.4B revenue base. when you own DLTR, you own a physical footprint that has to keep driving traffic one basket at a time.
core business
higher-ticket item mix
Multi-Price Point Items
4.2% comp sales growth
management tied the latest 4.2% comp gain to stronger average ticket, and the multi-price push was called a significant profit driver. that matters because you can only squeeze so much from pure unit volume.
margin lever
seasonal and home categories
Seasonal & Home Decor
standouts in a $4.75B quarter
these categories were called out as standouts in the quarter that produced $4.75B in sales. that is useful, but still thinner than a disclosed segment breakout, so you should treat it as a merchandising signal, not a separate business line.
watch list
Key numbers
$6.70
2026 EPS view
Management's fiscal 2026 earnings midpoint is $6.70 versus the $8.20 Yahoo consensus. Earnings per share → profit per share → so what: your stock is priced off a fight over reality.
19.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit from each dollar invested → so what: this is still a solid retailer, not a cleanup story with no engine.
12.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: Dollar Tree makes more on each sales dollar than most low-price retail stereotypes suggest.
$2.4B
long-term debt
Debt is 9% of capital, which means the balance sheet is a tool, not a hostage situation.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 45 / 100
- long-term debt $2.4B (9% of capital)
- net profit margin 6.5% — keeps 6 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 27% — $0.27 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in DLTR 3 years ago → it's now worth $9,020.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Dollar Tree posted fiscal Q4 revenue of $5.45B and adjusted EPS of $2.56, both ahead of expectations.
Full-year sales rose 10.4% to $19.4B. The business also delivered 5.3% same-store sales growth, with 4.3% from bigger baskets and 1.0% from more traffic.
$5.45B
revenue
$2.56
eps
35.3%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The most important number was 5.3% same-store sales growth because it says existing stores still pulled in more money after the Family Dollar mess left the building.
-
dollar tree delivered better-than-expected fiscal third-quarter results (period ended november 1st).the discount retailer reported earnings of $1.21 a share on sales of $4.75 billion, surpassing our estimates by $0.12 and $20 million, respectively.
-
the showing was highlighted by a stronger-than-anticipated 4.2% increase in comparable-store sales, as solid growth in average ticket helped mitigate a modest decline in traffic.the company’s focus on multi-price points continued to be a significant profit driver, and from a category standpoint, seasonal items and home decor products were notable standouts.
-
increased interest among higher-end consumers also provided a tailwind.
-
we have raised our estimates.
-
dollar tree has exceeded internal expectations in each of the last three quarters, which prompted three-consecutive increases in the retailer’s full-year outlook.recent results have benefited from a significant consumer migration to value-based shopping, likely motivated by persistently high inflation and increased economic strain. as mentioned above, even upper-level earners are starting to prioritize price over brand, providing considerable demand support for dollar tree’s discount offerings. all in all, we now expect earnings to reach $5.75 a share in fiscal 2025, up from our previous target of $5.60.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk is a comp-sales slowdown after the recent trade-down boost.
med
comp sales lose momentum
the latest quarter showed 4.2% comp growth, helped by average ticket. if that fades and traffic does not recover, the headline growth rate starts to look temporary.
a slowdown here hits the part of the story investors are paying for right now: evidence that demand is still holding up.
med
ticket growth masks weaker traffic
higher average spend helped offset softer traffic in the recent quarter. that works for a while. it is less comforting if fewer people keep walking through the door.
with a 6.3% net margin, retail math does not need much pressure before earnings feel it.
med
the business is stronger than the predictability score
a 5 / 100 earnings predictability score means the stock has a habit of surprising people. that is fine when the surprises are beats. less fine at 22.4x trailing earnings if the quarter goes the other way.
this is why the stock can look stable in the filing and still trade like a mood swing after earnings.
the recent setup is simple: DLTR just posted 4.2% comp growth and a beat, but the stock still needs that momentum to keep justifying a price above the $115 long-range midpoint target.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
comp sales after 4.2%
if same-store sales keep rising, the recent beat has legs. if they flatten, the trade-down story cools fast.
trend
ticket vs. traffic
the latest quarter leaned on bigger baskets more than more shoppers. you want both, not one doing all the work.
earnings
whether beats keep coming
the company has topped internal expectations for three straight quarters. the next print tells you if that streak was operating improvement or just a good run.
risk
valuation vs. target gap
the stock trades at $128.57 while the 3–5 year midpoint sits at $115. that gap is the market saying results have to stay clean.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 5%
momentum score 1 — the highest rating. in human-speak, analysts think the stock has stronger near-term momentum than almost everything else they cover.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 means the risk profile is ordinary. you are not hiding here, but you are not skydiving either.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 says the chart is not sending a dramatic signal. the recent thesis lives more in earnings than in trend-following.
earnings predictability
5 / 100
predictability this low means quarterly numbers can swing sentiment hard. if you own DLTR, expect the market to overreact to prints.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
361 buyers vs. 365 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$65
$165
$129
current price
$115
target midpoint · 11% from current · 3-5yr high: $175 (+35% · 8% ann'l return)
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