Start here if you're new
what it is
HF Sinclair turns crude oil into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, lubricants, and renewable fuels, then sells and moves those products across the U.S.
how it gets paid
Last year Hf Sinclair made $26.9B in revenue. Refining was the main engine at $21.8B, or 81% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 6.0% last year. Q3 2025 was the louder quarter operationally, with adjusted EPS of $2.44 as refining throughput, capture, and lower operating costs lifted results.
what just happened
HF Sinclair posted adjusted EPS of $1.20 in the latest quarter, beating the $1.13 consensus.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
10/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
11.6x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
4.1% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
9.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 64/100 — average
What they do
HF Sinclair turns crude oil into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, lubricants, and renewable fuels, then sells and moves those products across the U.S.
Throughput (how much crude its plants can run) → more barrels through the same pipes and tanks → lower cost per barrel. HF Sinclair has more than 678,000 barrels per day of crude capacity across the Rockies and West Coast, where closures can tighten supply and lift margins. You are not buying a flashy brand here; you are buying hard-to-replace assets in markets where fewer refineries can mean fatter spreads.
How they make money
$26.9B
annual revenue · their business grew -6.0% last year
Refining
$21.8B
+2.0%
Marketing
$2.4B
+4.0%
Lubricants & Specialties
$1.4B
+6.0%
Midstream
$0.8B
+3.0%
Renewables
$0.5B
10.0%
The products that matter
refines crude into fuels
Refining
$26.9B revenue
it's the center of gravity. this page shows $26.9B in total revenue, and the core investment case still rises and falls with the refining system.
core driver
produces renewable fuels
Renewable Diesel
not broken out here
the diversification angle is real, but this snapshot does not provide segment revenue. that usually means the $26.9B legacy refining base is still the number that matters most.
adjacent bet
makes specialty lubricants
Lubricants & Specialties
data here is thin
specialty products can stabilize a refiner's profile, but this page gives no segment dollars. for now, you should treat them as support acts next to a $26.9B core business.
support act
Key numbers
$11.82
refinery margin
This is the money made per barrel sold in Q3 2025, up from $2.73 a year earlier. Plain English: the same plants suddenly got far more profitable.
11.6x
trailing p/e
Price-to-earnings → what investors pay for each dollar of profit → so what: DINO is priced like a cyclical refiner, not a growth stock.
4.1%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → your annual cash payout relative to stock price → so what: you get paid while waiting for margins and sentiment to cooperate.
$3.1B
long debt
Long-term debt → money owed beyond one year → so what: the balance sheet is fine at 23% of capital, but this is still a cyclical business.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 40 / 100
- long-term debt $3.1B (23% of capital)
- net profit margin 2.7% — keeps 3 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in DINO 3 years ago → it's now worth $12,600.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
HF Sinclair posted adjusted EPS of $1.20 in the latest quarter, beating the $1.13 consensus.
Q3 2025 was the louder quarter operationally, with adjusted EPS of $2.44 as refining throughput, capture, and lower operating costs lifted results. Marketing and Midstream also improved, which helped offset a wider renewables loss.
$6.7B
revenue
$3.21
eps
7.5%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was $11.82 per barrel of adjusted refinery gross margin in Q3 2025, versus $2.73 a year earlier, because refining still drives the story.
-
hf sinclair reported strong bottom-line results for the 2025 third quarter.
-
the top line increased just slightly over the year-ago level.
-
adjusted earnings per share of $2.44 marked a dramatic improvement over the prior-year tally.the company benefited from continued increases in refining throughput, capture, and reductions in operating costs. adjusted refinery gross margin of $11.82 per barrel sold was well above the prior-year figure of $2.73.
-
the marketing and midstream segments also benefited from greater margins during the period.this more than offset a wider loss at the renewables business. The company has closed the acquisition of industrial oils unlimited. industrial oils is a leader in industrial lubricants and speciality fluids with robust regional manufacturing capabilities. this addition ought to help drive the expansion of the company's lubricants portfolio as hf sinclair continues to broaden its presence across the u.s. market.hf sinclair appears to be well positioned in the markets that it serves. though a smaller player, the company's footprint in the rockies and on the west coast is a source of competitive advantage. it ought to benefit from west coast margin opportunities, particularly with anticipated refinery closures in that region.
-
pipeline expansions should allow it to increase market share.indeed, the company is evaluating a multiphased expansion of its midstream refined products footprint. in addition to refining, the company also operates in lubricants, specialties, marketing, and midstream markets, which provides stability when refining margins prove volatile. This stock is ranked to outpace the broader market for the coming six to 12 months.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is refining margin compression. this is a spread business with a 2.7% net margin, so the buffer between a good quarter and a bad one is thin.
med
refining margin compression
HF Sinclair can process a lot of volume, but it cannot force gasoline and diesel margins to stay attractive. That's the core exposure in any refining stock.
At a 2.7% net margin on $26.9B of revenue, even modest spread pressure can hit earnings hard.
med
regulatory pressure on refining and renewable fuels
Environmental compliance costs, fuel standards, and renewable-fuel rules can move the economics of both the legacy refining system and the renewable diesel bet.
This matters because 100% of the reported $26.9B revenue base sits inside a heavily regulated energy value chain.
med
earnings volatility can pressure the dividend story
A 4.1% yield looks attractive until the cycle turns. With earnings predictability at 10/100, your income thesis still depends on cash flow staying healthy.
If profits weaken from the recent $5.20 full-year EPS level toward the $4.50 estimate or below, the market usually stops treating the yield as free money.
a spread squeeze or regulatory hit would pressure a business generating $26.9B in revenue but keeping only about 3 cents of each sales dollar.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
net margin staying above survival mode
2.7% is already thin. if that compresses further, the low multiple will stop looking cheap.
calendar
next earnings report
you want to see whether Q4's $2.15 EPS was a one-quarter spike or the start of steadier refining economics.
trend
revenue tracking back toward $29B
the FY2026 estimate calls for $29B after last year's 6.0% decline. that recovery needs to show up in actual throughput and pricing.
risk
current price versus long-term target
shares trade at $58.20 while the 3–5 year target midpoint shown here is $49. when price outruns target support, you need the next quarter to do more work.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead. in human-speak, they like the near-term setup more than the long-term certainty.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — typical risk by market standards, but still more cyclical than the word “average” sounds.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is behaving normally. no panic, no breakout, just a stock near the top of its $25–$59 range.
earnings predictability
10 / 100
predictability is low. translation: if you need clean quarterly consistency, this is the wrong industry.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 313 buyers vs. 223 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$26
$71
$58
current price
$49
target midpoint · 16% from current · 3-5yr high: $90 (+55% · 15% ann'l return)
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