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what it is
Diebold Nixdorf sells the machines and software that help banks and retailers move money, process payments, and keep stores running.
how it gets paid
Last year Diebold Nixdorf made $3.8B in revenue. Banking systems was the main engine at $2.1B, or 55% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 1.5% last year. 186% revenue growth mattered most, because it shows the quarter was unusual relative to the full-year 1.5% growth rate.
what just happened
Revenue hit $2.7B, up 186% vs. prior year, while EPS reached $1.20.
At a glance
n/a balance sheet
22.2x trailing p/e — priced about right
3.3% return on capital — nothing to write home about
-$0.44 fy2024 eps est
$4B fy2024 rev est
xvary composite: 53/100 — below average
What they do
Diebold Nixdorf sells the machines and software that help banks and retailers move money, process payments, and keep stores running.
This business is sticky because banks and big retailers do not casually swap out mission-critical machines in 100 countries. Diebold works with most of the world’s top 100 financial institutions, according to the company, and supports customers with 21,000 employees. Switching costs (pain of changing vendors) are real here, so what: if your ATM fleet or checkout systems break, your customer feels it immediately.
How they make money
$3.8B
annual revenue · their business grew +1.5% last year
Banking systems
$2.1B
Retail systems
$1.0B
Software and services
$0.7B
The products that matter
manufactures ATMs and cash systems
Banking Hardware & Services
$2.3B · about 61% of revenue
it's the core business, serving most of the world's top 100 banks. scale helps, but +1.0% growth tells you this is maintenance, not expansion.
largest segment
self-checkout kiosks and store systems
Retail Hardware & Services
$1.5B · about 40% of revenue
this is the retail bet. the segment grew 2.5%, which is better than banking but still not enough to transform a $4B company on its own.
slightly faster
recurring maintenance and software
Software & Services Layer
supports both segments
the point is stability. on a company-wide 2.5% profit margin, recurring service revenue matters because one bad hardware cycle leaves very little cushion.
margin support
Key numbers
3.3%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested in the business → so what: $1 put to work generates just 3.3 cents back.
$1.0B
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money the company still owes years from now → so what: it equals 29% of capital, which is heavy for a business earning only 3.3% on capital.
8.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business, before interest and taxes → so what: on $4.0B of revenue, there is not much room for mistakes.
1.4
beta
Beta → how violently a stock moves versus the market → so what: DBD has tended to swing harder than the index.
Financial health
n/a
strength
- balance sheet grade n/a
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 35 / 100
- long-term debt $1.0B (29% of capital)
n/a — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for DBD right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Revenue hit $2.7B, up 186% vs. prior year, while EPS reached $1.20.
That quarterly surge looks huge next to the annual picture. Full-year revenue was $3.8B, up just 1.5%, and fiscal 2024 EPS was still estimated at -$0.44.
$950M
revenue
$1.20
eps
25.2%
gross margin
the number that mattered
186% revenue growth mattered most, because it shows the quarter was unusual relative to the full-year 1.5% growth rate.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is the turnaround stalling back into flat sales and thin margins.
med
flat revenue is still the base case to beat
The company has spent years stuck around the same revenue level, and the current snapshot still shows growth ranging from flat to just 1.5% depending on the period. That's not escape velocity.
If growth slips back again, the market stops treating the recent EPS beat like progress and starts treating it like noise across a roughly $4B revenue base.
med
2.5% profit margin leaves no cushion
Diebold keeps only 2.5 cents of profit on every revenue dollar. Hardware, services, logistics, and labor all have to line up better than usual for that to hold.
A small cost shock can hit earnings hard because there is very little slack built into the income statement.
med
competition is real in both core segments
The banking business faces NCR Atleos. The retail side runs into NCR Voyix and PAR Technology. Neither the $2.3B banking segment nor the $1.5B retail segment gets to coast.
Share pressure in either segment matters because together they account for essentially the whole company.
med
ownership is concentrated
Capital World Investors owns 33.8% of the company, according to the February 2026 SEC filing cited in the existing snapshot data. That's influence, not background noise.
If that holder changes its view, smaller shareholders will feel it. Concentrated ownership can stabilize a story until it doesn't.
A business with 1.5% growth, a 2.5% margin, and $1.0B of long-term debt does not need a crisis to disappoint you. It just needs execution to get a little worse.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
Q1 2026 earnings report
Expected May 6, 2026. After a big Q4 EPS beat, the question is simple: was that the start of a trend or one strong quarter.
guidance
2026 EPS guidance hold
Management guided to $5.25–$5.75 in EPS. If that range starts coming down, the recent re-rating will look premature.
margin
profit margin above 2.5%
With only 2.5 cents of profit per $1 of revenue, even modest improvement matters. So does any slip.
ownership
Capital World Investors activity
A 33.8% holder can shape the story. Watch filings and position changes because concentration cuts both ways.
Analyst rankings
risk profile
average
risk rank 3 — typical risk profile — neither especially safe nor risky.
chart momentum
top 20%
momentum rank 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for DBD is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$65
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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