Start here if you're new
what it is
CoreCivic runs detention centers, reentry homes, and government-leased prison real estate.
how it gets paid
Last year Corecivic made $2.2B in revenue. CoreCivic Safety was the main engine at $1.7B, or 77% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 12.7% last year. Revenue rose 177% vs. prior year, and EPS rose 246% vs. prior year.
what just happened
CoreCivic posted $1.6B in quarterly revenue and $0.83 EPS.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
50/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
17.6x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
8.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 55/100 — below average
What they do
CoreCivic runs detention centers, reentry homes, and government-leased prison real estate.
You do not replace 42 operated facilities and 38 owned buildings overnight. Switching costs → leaving is painful → the government client still needs beds, staff, and permits. That is why CoreCivic can post 18.5% operating margin on $2.2B of revenue while one customer, ICE, is still its largest.
How they make money
$2.2B
annual revenue · their business grew +12.7% last year
CoreCivic Safety
$1.7B
CoreCivic Community
$0.3B
CoreCivic Properties
$0.2B
The products that matter
owns and manages correctional facilities
Correctional and Detention Facilities
$2.2B revenue · 100% of sales
it's the full $2.2B business. That makes CoreCivic easy to model and hard to diversify. If the contract base holds, the story works. If it slips, there is nowhere else for growth to hide.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
$2.2B
annual revenue
That is the size of the whole machine. Lose 10%, and you are staring at about $220M gone.
18.5%
operating margin
For every $100 of sales, CoreCivic keeps $18.50 before interest and taxes. That is better than a lot of public landlords.
17.6x
trailing p/e
You are paying 17.6 times trailing earnings for a business tied to contracts, beds, and politics. Cheap is not the same as safe.
$33
18-month target
That target sits 78% above the $18.51 price. The market is betting the beds stay full.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 20 / 100
- long-term debt $1.0B (35% of capital)
- net profit margin 8.5% — keeps 8 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in CXW 3 years ago → it's now worth $17,450.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
CoreCivic posted $1.6B in quarterly revenue and $0.83 EPS.
Revenue rose 177% vs. prior year, and EPS rose 246% vs. prior year. VL also says idle facilities are reopening as occupancy rises and average daily rates increase.
$1.6B
revenue
$0.83
eps
177%
revenue Vs. last year
revenue surge
The $1.6B top line matters because it is 177% above last year and shows the reopening math is real.
-
the past year was one of transition for corecivic.the company experienced a sea change in government policy as the united states moved from a catch and release immigration policy to one of detaining asylum seekers.
-
the immigration and customs enforcement agency is the company's largest customer.the biden administration also forbade renewing contracts with private prison operators, a policy that was reversed under the new administration.
-
final results for 2025 are expected to be reported shortly after this issue goes to press, but we expect that revenues will have grown 12% and per share earnings increased almost 70%.
-
idle facilities are being reopened as occupancy rises and average daily rates increase.
-
we expect continued growth in 2026.several detention centers re-opened in the second half of 2025, which should lead to a continued rise in detainees.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
CoreCivic is not juggling ten business lines. It has one $2.2B revenue engine tied to governments using private correctional and detention capacity. If that appetite changes, you feel it everywhere at once.
med
policy reversal hits the whole model
This is a prison and detention contractor. If lawmakers or agencies decide to shrink private-facility usage, demand does not fade politely. It disappears contract by contract.
100% of the current $2.2B revenue base is tied to government demand for these facilities.
med
renewal risk is operating risk
A contract business always has a calendar attached to it. The quarter looks fine until a renewal slips, and then the real estate is suddenly much less productive.
With one economic engine producing $2.2B of revenue, a lost contract would pressure utilization, margins, and sentiment at the same time.
med
thin profitability meets fixed assets
A 7.0% net margin is real profit, but it is not a luxury margin. This business also carries $1.0B of long-term debt and specialized facilities that are not easy to repurpose.
If occupancy weakens or costs rise, the 7 cents kept on each revenue dollar compresses fast.
A policy or contract shock would not nick one segment. It would hit the whole company.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next quarterly revenue pace
Last year delivered 12.7% revenue growth. If that pace fades quickly, the recent improvement starts looking more cyclical than durable.
risk
policy language from agencies and lawmakers
This stock can look calm until one contract or policy headline changes the room. That is the price of 100% government exposure.
metric
margin hold around the current 7.0%
A low-return business needs to defend what little cushion it has. If margin slips, the valuation case gets harder fast.
trend
institutional selling trend
Institutions were net sellers for three straight quarters. You want to see that pressure stop before treating this like a consensus-quality setup.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
Momentum score 3. In human-speak, analysts see a stock behaving normally, not one pulling in fresh conviction.
risk profile
average
Stability score 3. You're not looking at a bunker stock, but you're not looking at a balance-sheet emergency either.
chart momentum
average
Technical score 3. The chart is not fighting the story, and it is not rescuing it.
earnings predictability
50 / 100
Halfway predictable. Translation: if you own this, you should trust the direction of the numbers more than one quarter of good behavior.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 114 buyers vs. 125 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 91.3M shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$13
$52
$19
current price
$33
target midpoint · +78% from current · 3-5yr high: $40 (+115% · 22% ann'l return)
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