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what it is
Crane NXT makes the hardware and security tech that help machines take payments and help products prove they are real.
how it gets paid
Last year Crane Nxt made $1.7B in revenue. Vending payment systems was the main engine at $0.43B, or 25% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 11.4% last year. We raised our 2025 sales target by $25 million from our october report.
what just happened
Q4 EPS landed at $1.27, a 0.79% beat, while revenue reached $476.9 million.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
60/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
11.8x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
1.5% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
15.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 57/100 — below average
What they do
Crane NXT makes the hardware and security tech that help machines take payments and help products prove they are real.
Crane NXT has worked with the U.S. government for 150+ years. Switching costs → changing vendors is painful and risky → so what: your customer does not casually swap out banknote security or payment hardware. That helps support a 24.5% operating margin on $1.7B of annual revenue.
How they make money
$1.7B
annual revenue · their business grew +11.4% last year
Vending payment systems
$0.43B
3.8%
Retail and self-service payment tech
$0.34B
3.8%
Gaming and payment automation
$0.23B
3.8%
Banknote security
$0.40B
+29.6%
Authentication and brand protection
$0.30B
+29.6%
The products that matter
secures and authenticates physical products
Security and authentication technologies
$1.7B revenue · entire business
this bucket carries the full $1.7B revenue base and grew 11.4% last year, but the snapshot data does not break out which sub-business earns the best margin. you know the scale. you do not yet know the best engine.
entire revenue base
Key numbers
+36%
18-month gap
A $65 value versus $47.92 today says the market is still pricing this like a slower, lower-trust industrial business.
$834M
long debt
Long-term debt is 23% of capital, which is manageable for a 15.0% return-on-capital business but leaves less room for acquisition mistakes.
24.5%
op margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business, before interest and taxes → so what: this is a high-quality niche operator, not a commodity manufacturer.
15.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the money put into the business → so what: Crane NXT earns better returns than a plain industrial, but not enough to hide weak growth forever.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 65 / 100
- long-term debt $834M (23% of capital)
- net profit margin 16.0% — keeps 16 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 18% — $0.18 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in CXT 3 years ago → it's now worth $14,400.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Q4 EPS landed at $1.27, a 0.79% beat, while revenue reached $476.9 million.
The quarter was helped by organic growth and the de la Rue Authentication Solutions acquisition. The weak spot stayed the same: CPI sales fell 3.8% because vending and short-cycle demand softened, according to.
$476.9M
revenue
$1.27
eps
24.5%
operating margin
the number that mattered
Revenue mattered more than the tiny EPS beat. The company reported $476.9 million in Q4 sales, up 19.5% vs. prior year, which shows demand in authentication is still carrying the story.
-
net sales improved about 10% from the prior-year period, to $445.1 million, primarily driven by outperformance in the security and authentication technologies business.
-
the acquisition of de la rue authentication solutions (completed in early 2025), organic growth, and productivity improvements contributed to that segment’s 28% vs. prior year top-line growth.
-
however, cpi sales declined 3.8%, due to lower volumes in vending and short-cycle markets, influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties, customer caution on tariffs, and softer demand in certain end markets.overall, the results showed accelerating momentum in authentication technologies, even though payment innovations faced headwinds.
-
to wit, share earnings were about in line with our $1.30 estimate.
-
we raised our 2025 sales target by $25 million from our october report, but reduced our share-profit estimate by $0.15, to $1.625 billion and $4.05, respectively.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top threat is a slowdown in physical-security and authentication demand.
med
order slowdown in core security markets
CXT grew revenue 11.4% last year. If customers delay spending on authentication and detection systems, that growth rate can compress fast.
With the stock already 31% below its 52-week high, another growth disappointment would reinforce the market's skepticism instead of clearing it.
med
margin pressure
A 15.4% net margin looks good until mix worsens or costs rise. This business does not need a collapse to miss expectations — it just needs less operating leverage than investors expect.
When a $1.7B revenue base is carrying the valuation case, even a modest margin reset makes 11.8x earnings look less cheap than it first appears.
med
balance sheet flexibility
Long-term debt is $834M, or 23% of capital. That's manageable. It is also not background noise if demand softens at the same time.
You are not looking at distress risk here. You are looking at less room for mistakes if growth slows while capital needs rise.
If revenue growth slips and the 15.4% net margin follows it down, the cheap-multiple argument weakens quickly.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next quarterly print
the next test is simple: does revenue stay near the current 10% growth pace, or does the slowdown thesis start winning.
margin
net margin discipline
15.4% net margin is one of the few hard proof points on quality in this snapshot. if that slips, the valuation story changes fast.
risk
demand for authentication and detection systems
this page does not give you segment granularity, so listen closely for any sign that customer order timing is getting weaker.
ownership
whether institutional buying continues
172 buyers versus 138 sellers is supportive. if that flips while fundamentals cool, the stock loses an important backstop.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — the stock is behaving like the broader market. in human-speak, analysts are not seeing a near-term catalyst they fully trust.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — neither especially defensive nor especially fragile. You can own it without drama, but not without monitoring it.
chart momentum
top 5%
technical score 1 — the chart looks stronger than the headline rating. Welcome to a stock where the tape is more optimistic than the narrative.
earnings predictability
60 / 100
earnings are not wildly erratic, but they are not clockwork either. Expect some variance around estimates.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 172 buyers vs. 138 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 56.8M shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$38
$91
$48
current price
$65
target midpoint · +36% from current · 3-5yr high: $100 (+110% · 21% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
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