Start here if you're new
what it is
Casella picks up trash, moves recyclables, and owns the dump sites that get paid at every step.
how it gets paid
Last year Casella Waste Sys made $1.8B in revenue. solid waste collection was the main engine at $0.74B, or 40% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 18.0% last year. The EPS beat mattered most because CWST made $0.30 per share against a $0.19 expectation.
what just happened
Casella's last report beat on profit, with EPS of $0.30 versus a $0.19 estimate.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
35/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
292.5x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
4.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 57/100 — below average
What they do
Casella picks up trash, moves recyclables, and owns the dump sites that get paid at every step.
Vertical integration → owning pickup routes, transfer stations, recycling plants, and landfills → Casella gets paid multiple times on the same bag of trash. You can see the network in the asset count: 68 collection operations, 71 transfer stations, 28 recycling facilities, and 8 landfills. If your town already uses that network, switching is a paperwork project first and an operational headache second.
How they make money
$1.8B
annual revenue · their business grew +18.0% last year
solid waste collection
$0.74B
+8.0%
transfer and disposal
$0.55B
+9.0%
resource solutions
$0.29B
+18.0%
recycling processing
$0.17B
+12.0%
organics and other
$0.09B
+10.0%
The products that matter
picks up and disposes waste
Collection and Disposal
$1.8B company-wide revenue
this is the center of the $1.8B business. if route density and disposal pricing improve, margins should follow. right now the company keeps only 2.1 cents of every revenue dollar.
core network
processes recyclable materials
Recycling
#1 earnings swing factor
snapshot data does not break out segment revenue here, and that limitation matters. recycling is still the named top risk because commodity price swings hit a company with a 2.1% net margin fast.
margin swing
manages broader waste services
Resource Management
18.0% growth story
this is part of the scale case. the bull story says 18.0% revenue growth becomes better returns later. the current 2.5% return on capital says you should wait for proof, not assume it.
scale bet
Key numbers
292.5x
trailing p/e
P/E → price-to-earnings → what you pay for each dollar of profit. You are paying 292.5 dollars for 1 dollar of trailing earnings.
$1.8B
annual revenue
Revenue → total sales → the business is real and growing, up 18.0% vs. prior year.
3.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → Casella keeps 3.5 cents from each sales dollar before interest and taxes.
4.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested → 4.0% says growth is coming with modest efficiency.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 90 / 100
- long-term debt $1.1B (15% of capital)
- net profit margin 3.5% — keeps 4 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 5% — $0.05 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in CWST 3 years ago → it's now worth $12,730.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Casella's last report beat on profit, with EPS of $0.30 versus a $0.19 estimate.
Quarterly revenue was $469.06M versus analyst estimates of $471.32M, while EPS beat by 57.89%. Full-year 2025 revenue reached about $1.8B, up 18.0% vs. prior year, helped by acquisitions and route optimization.
$469.1M
revenue
$0.30
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
The EPS beat mattered most because CWST made $0.30 per share against a $0.19 expectation, which is a 57.89% gap in a low-margin business.
-
casella waste systems likely ended 2025 with solid full-year results.the company probably benefited from low- to mid-single-digit increases in solid waste and disposal pricing, offsetting weakness in recycling and commodity prices. landfill activity likely remained a notable driver, with total tons handled rising at a low double-digit pace.
-
in addition, casella continued to execute operational initiatives, including route-optimization efforts that reduced route days and lowered driver headcount requirements.
-
contributions from acquired businesses should further support growth.
-
all told, we estimate full-year revenue of about $1.8 billion and share earnings of roughly $0.35.
-
the mckean landfill should serve as a key long-term catalyst.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
Casella's risk profile is not abstract. It is a thin-margin waste business where recycling volatility, permit friction, and execution slippage all hit harder because net margin is only 2.1%.
med
commodity prices can whipsaw recycling profit
prices for paper, cardboard, and metals move with demand. Casella does not need a dramatic swing for that to show up in results because company-wide net margin is only 2.1%.
If recycled commodity prices roll over, a thin-margin business gets thinner fast.
med
landfill and environmental approvals stay slow
the moat is partly regulatory. that helps on competition, but it also makes new disposal capacity and site expansions slow, expensive, and exposed to local opposition.
If permits stall, tons handled can hit a wall even if customer demand stays steady.
med
growth can outrun profitability
18.0% revenue growth looks good. 2.5% return on capital and 35/100 earnings predictability say the business still has to prove scale is turning into better economics.
If growth cools before margins improve, the stock stops looking like a compounding story and starts looking expensive.
when your net margin is 2.1%, small misses in recycling, permitting, or integration costs can do outsized damage to earnings. that's the part the multiple does not forgive.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next earnings report
you want to see whether pricing and route density do more than keep revenue growing. the margin line matters more now.
metric
return on capital
2.5% is the number to beat. if that does not move up, the growth story stays bigger, not better.
risk
recycling commodity prices
paper and metals pricing can move earnings faster than most investors expect in a company keeping only 2 cents of every revenue dollar.
trend
institutional buying streak
three straight quarters of net buying says large holders still buy the long story. watch whether that support survives weaker momentum.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think the next stretch looks weaker than the long story.
risk profile
above average
stability score 2 — safer than roughly 80% of stocks. steady demand, thin profits.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the chart is not backing the long-term target story yet.
earnings predictability
35 / 100
earnings are harder to model than the business sounds. expect some messiness.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 203 buyers vs. 177 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 66.7M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$91
$181
$102
current price
$136
target midpoint · +33% from current · 3-5yr high: $160 (+55% · 12% ann'l return)
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