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what it is
Chevron finds oil and gas, turns it into fuels and chemicals, and sends part of the cash back to you.
how it gets paid
Last year Chevron made $184.4B in revenue. Crude oil production was the main engine at $73.8B, or 40% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 4.6% last year. The 5.0% miss matters most because it landed on top of a year where EPS already fell 27.5%.
what just happened
Chevron missed on the quarter, with EPS of $1.52 versus $1.60 expected, a 5.0% shortfall.
At a glance
A++ balance sheet — fortress balance sheet — as safe as it gets
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
25.0x trailing p/e — priced about right
4.1% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
12.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 71/100 — average
What they do
Chevron finds oil and gas, turns it into fuels and chemicals, and sends part of the cash back to you.
Chevron wins on scale and staying power. It carries $38.0B of long-term debt, just 9% of capital, with an A++ balance sheet grade, which means a very strong financial cushion. When oil crashes, smaller rivals cut back first, while Chevron keeps drilling, refining, and paying you a 4.1% dividend.
How they make money
$184.4B
annual revenue · their business grew -4.6% last year
Crude oil production
$73.8B
Natural gas and LNG
$29.5B
Refined products marketing
$64.5B
Chemicals
$11.1B
Other energy and services
$5.5B
The products that matter
produces crude oil and gas
upstream
core earnings driver
This is where commodity prices hit first. The quarter showed that clearly: EPS fell to $1.82 even though total revenue was still $48.2B.
price sensitive
refines and sells fuels
downstream
margin buffer
Refining helps smooth the cycle, but not perfectly. Management cited weaker refining margins as part of the reason revenue slipped to $48.2B in the latest quarter.
integrated model
company-wide cash return
dividend
4.1% yield
For many shareholders, this is the product. You are getting a 4.1% yield backed by an A++ balance sheet, which matters more here than a flashy growth narrative.
income engine
Key numbers
4.1%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → cash paid to shareholders each year → you get $4.10 annually for every $100 invested while you wait.
25.0x
trailing p/e
P/E → stock price divided by past profit → you are paying $25 for each $1 Chevron earned over the last 12 months.
0.5%
EPS growth
EPS growth → profit growth per share → Chevron is expected to barely grow earnings after a 26.5% past growth run.
$38.0B
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed over many years → the key point is it equals just 9% of capital, which keeps the balance sheet sturdy.
Financial health
A++
strength
- balance sheet grade A++ — the absolute highest — fortress balance sheet
- risk rank 1 — safer than 95% of stocks
- price stability 80 / 100
- long-term debt $38.0B (9% of capital)
- net profit margin 9.8% — keeps 10 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 16% — $0.16 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A++ — among the top-rated companies for balance sheet quality.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in CVX 3 years ago → it's now worth $12,290.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Chevron missed on the quarter, with EPS of $1.52 versus $1.60 expected, a 5.0% shortfall.
The miss matters because profits are moving the wrong way. Full-year EPS fell from $10.05 in 2024 to $7.29 in 2025, even before the 2026 estimate recovers only to $7.80.
$1.52
q4 eps
5.0%
vs estimate
$7.29
fy 2025 eps
the number that mattered
The 5.0% miss matters most because it landed on top of a year where EPS already fell 27.5%, from $10.05 to $7.29.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
Chevron's core risk is commodity-price sensitivity in a low-growth setup. The balance sheet is elite. The earnings stream is not.
med
oil and gas price swings
Chevron generated $184.4B in annual revenue with an 8.4% net margin. When crude or gas prices weaken, that margin compresses quickly and quarterly earnings can move a lot.
You just saw the setup in real time: quarterly EPS fell 27% vs. prior year to $1.82 while revenue slipped to $48.2B.
med
weaker refining margins
Integration helps, but it does not neutralize the cycle. Management already cited weaker refining margins in the latest quarter, which means the downstream buffer was thinner than investors wanted.
If upstream pricing softens and refining margins stay weak at the same time, the stock loses its "steady integrated major" aura very quickly.
med
valuation outrunning growth
The street is looking for just 0.5% annual earnings growth, yet the stock trades at 25.0x trailing earnings and above the $167 long-term midpoint target.
That gap is the risk. If growth stays muted, you are depending on the 4.1% yield and balance-sheet quality to justify a premium multiple.
This is not a fragile company. It is a fragile earnings stream wrapped in a very strong balance sheet.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
valuation vs. growth
25.0x trailing earnings against 0.5% projected profit growth is the main tension in the stock. If that mismatch stays, upside stays limited.
risk
commodity price pressure
Chevron's latest quarter showed what happens when lower commodity prices hit the model: EPS dropped to $1.82 and revenue slipped to $48.2B.
calendar
next earnings print
You want to see whether EPS stabilizes after the 27% drop from a year ago. Another weak quarter would make the premium multiple harder to defend.
trend
institutional buying
Net buying lasted 2 consecutive quarters, with 2,189 buyers against 1,242 sellers in 3q2025. Watch whether that support continues if earnings stay soft.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
outlook rank 4 — in human-speak, analysts think CVX is more likely to lag than lead in the near term.
risk profile
safest 5%
risk rank 1 — the odds of permanent financial damage are lower here than in most stocks.
chart momentum
below average
momentum rank 4 — the chart is not confirming a strong near-term breakout.
earnings predictability
5 / 100
Earnings predictability is low. Translation: this is not the kind of company where quarterly numbers behave politely.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 2,189 buyers vs. 1,242 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 1.5B shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$118
$215
$183
current price
$167
target midpoint · 9% from current · 3-5yr high: $240 (+30% · 10% ann'l return)
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