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what it is
Covenant moves freight fast, supplies dedicated trucks, brokers outside capacity, and runs warehouses for shippers that hate surprises.
how it gets paid
Last year Covenant Logistics made $1.2B in revenue. Dedicated was the main engine at $0.43B, or 36% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 2.9% last year. Quarterly EPS history shows profits falling from $1.98 in 2023 to $1.28 in 2024.
what just happened
Latest reported quarter EPS was $0.35, while full-year 2024 quarterly EPS added up to $1.28 and the 2025 outlook drops to $0.22.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
123.1x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
1.1% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
6.7% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 44/100 — below average
What they do
Covenant moves freight fast, supplies dedicated trucks, brokers outside capacity, and runs warehouses for shippers that hate surprises.
Covenant wins the freight jobs other carriers avoid: 1,000 miles in 22 hours or delivery windows as tight as 15 minutes. That niche matters because your customer does not switch carriers lightly when a missed load can shut down a factory. Dedicated contracts and time-critical freight create stickier demand than plain van trucking.
How they make money
$1.2B
annual revenue · their business grew +2.9% last year
Dedicated
$0.43B
+5.0%
Expedited
$0.35B
7.0%
Managed Freight
$0.37B
+8.0%
Warehousing
$0.05B
+3.0%
The products that matter
high-service freight transport
Truckload Services
$1.0B · about 83% of revenue
This is the business. When roughly five-sixths of revenue sits here, your thesis lives or dies on truckload pricing and utilization. At 2.6% net margin, the cushion is thin.
core segment
freight storage and handling
Warehousing
$0.1B · about 8% of revenue
Warehousing added $1.1M in revenue. That matters because there are not many obvious bright spots in the snapshot. It also matters because the segment is still small.
small bright spot
brokerage and freight management
Logistics Services
$0.1B · about 8% of revenue
This is the lighter-asset piece of the model. Flat growth tells you it is not offsetting the pressure in truckload. Same company. Different cost profile. Same problem.
watch mix
Key numbers
123.1x
trailing p/e
P/E → stock price divided by earnings → so what: you are paying a luxury multiple for a trucking company expected to earn just $0.22 this year.
0.3%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit from core operations → so what: this business keeps about 30 cents for every $100 of sales.
$233M
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money the company still owes years from now → so what: it is 27% of capital, which is okay until the freight cycle turns ugly.
6.7%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the money tied up in the business → so what: it is decent, not amazing, and far below what a 123.1x multiple implies.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 40 / 100
- long-term debt $233M (27% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for CVLG right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Latest reported quarter EPS was $0.35, while full-year 2024 quarterly EPS added up to $1.28 and the 2025 outlook drops to $0.22.
Quarterly EPS history shows profits falling from $1.98 in 2023 to $1.28 in 2024. Revenue still reached about $1.2 billion for the year, but a 0.3% operating margin tells you where the money went.
~$300M
approx. quarter revenue
$1.28
fy2024 eps
0.3%
operating margin
the number that mattered
$0.22 matters most because that is the 2025 EPS estimate, down 83% from 2024, and it makes the current valuation look stretched.
source: company filings and quarterly EPS history, 2024-2025
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What could go wrong
Covenant’s problem is specific: truckload still drives about 83% of revenue, and the company just saw net margin fall to 2.6% from 3.7% from a year ago. That is not abstract risk. That is the operating setup you are buying.
high
Margin compression keeps going
Net profit margin fell to 2.6% from 3.7% from a year ago. When the business keeps only 2.6 cents of every revenue dollar, even a modest operating miss hits harder than it looks.
The recent move already cut margin by 1.1 percentage points
high
Truckload concentration
Truckload is about 83% of revenue. Warehousing and logistics are about 8% each. If the core segment stays soft, the rest of the portfolio is too small to change the story.
One segment still sets the earnings tone
med
Cheap valuation stays cheap
This stock sits at 0.7x EV/sales and 4.75x forward earnings. In plain English: the market is already discounting the recovery story. If margin does not improve, the low multiple is not a bargain. It is the point.
Value trap risk is real when profits are this thin
med
Balance sheet flexibility is decent, not generous
Long-term debt sits at $233M, or 27% of capital. That is manageable in steadier conditions. Pair it with 20/100 earnings predictability and the buffer looks thinner.
You want cleaner earnings before you call the debt load comfortable
Revenue grew +2.9%, but margins fell from 3.7% to 2.6%. If you remember one line, make it that one.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
Net margin
2.6% is the number to watch. If it cannot recover toward 3.7%, the cheap forward multiple stops looking mispriced and starts looking honest.
calendar
Next quarterly report
You want one answer from the next update: did pricing and utilization improve, or did the squeeze run into another quarter.
trend
Segment mix
Truckload is about 83% of revenue. If warehousing and logistics stay near 8% each, you still live and die by truckload economics.
risk
Debt versus earnings quality
$233M of long-term debt is manageable only if profits stabilize. Put that next to 20/100 earnings predictability and you get the catch: this story needs execution, not hope.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
20 / 100
Low predictability means reported earnings can move around more than you want. in human-speak, analysts do not view this as a steady compounder.
price stability
40 / 100
Price stability measures how choppy the stock has been. A 40 / 100 score says this is not where you hide if markets get jumpy.
risk rank
4
Risk rank 4 means it is safer than only about 20% of stocks in this dataset. Translation: you are not getting a safety premium here.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for CVLG is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$27
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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