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what it is
CVR turns crude oil and pet coke into gasoline, diesel, propane, and fertilizer.
how it gets paid
Last year Cvr Energy made $7.2B in revenue. gasoline was the main engine at $2.95B, or 41% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 5.9% last year. Latest-quarter revenue was $5.4B, up 175% vs. prior year, while EPS was $1.37, down 63% vs. prior year.
what just happened
CVR printed $5.4B in the latest quarter and beat the expected loss, but earnings power still came in with a lot less force than a year ago.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
24.7x trailing p/e — priced about right
16.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 41/100 — below average
What they do
CVR turns crude oil and pet coke into gasoline, diesel, propane, and fertilizer.
CVR owns two refineries in Kansas and Oklahoma plus a North American nitrogen fertilizer plant. That matters because you are not betting on one product. You are buying hard assets that still produced a 16.5% return on capital, which means every $1 invested in the business generated $0.165 of operating profit.
How they make money
$7.2B
annual revenue · their business grew -5.9% last year
gasoline
$2.95B
diesel
$2.05B
nitrogen fertilizer
$0.90B
other refined products
$0.75B
propane
$0.55B
The products that matter
refines fuel and sells fertilizer
Petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer
$7.2B revenue
it's the full $7.2B business in this snapshot, and that total fell 5.9% last year. what matters is not product novelty — it's whether margins hold when commodity inputs move.
entire business
Key numbers
24.7x
trailing p/e
P/E ratio → how much you pay for the last 12 months of profit → you are paying 24.7 times earnings for a business with a lot of earnings whiplash.
$1.8B
long-term debt
Debt → money the company owes → $1.8B matters more when annual revenue already fell 5.9% to $7.2B.
69.8%
insider ownership
Insider ownership → how much stock management and directors control → outside investors are riding with a very concentrated shareholder base.
16.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested in the business → 16.5% says the assets can work when the cycle cooperates.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 15 / 100
- long-term debt $1.8B (42% of capital)
- net profit margin 4.5% — keeps 4 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 26% — $0.26 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — return on equity looks solid but long-term debt needs watching.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in CVI 3 years ago → it's now worth $9,280.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
CVR printed $5.4B in the latest quarter and beat the expected loss, but earnings power still came in with a lot less force than a year ago.
Latest-quarter revenue was $5.4B, up 175% vs. prior year, while EPS was $1.37, down 63% vs. prior year. Separately, the last reported earnings print beat consensus with $0.80 versus a -$0.36 estimate, which tells you the quarter was better than feared, not clean.
$5.4B
revenue
$1.37
eps
10.5%
operating margin
the number that mattered
The real tell is the earnings swing: 2025 quarterly EPS ran -$1.22, -$1.14, $3.72, and -$0.36, which is not stability, it is a commodity mood ring.
-
cvr energy shares struggled considerably over the past three months.
-
the stock is down more than 30% in value since reaching a fresh multi-year high in october of 2025.selling pressure likely stemmed from a combination of uncertain macroeconomic conditions, relatively weak commodity prices, and overall operational challenges (discussed below). at this time, shares of the petroleum refiner and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturer are ranked to underperform the year-ahead broader market averages (timeliness: 4).
-
the company likely ended 2025 on a soft note.preliminary fourth-quarter financial results were recently released, suggesting that sales dipped vs. prior year in the december period, with the bottom line expected to swing back into the red.
-
weighing heavily on results were expenses related to the reversion of cvr’s renewable diesel unit at the wynnewood refinery back to hydrocarbon processing, and lower nitrogen fertilizer production volumes.the move back to hydrocarbon production, while costly in the near term, ought to reap benefits this year, with no additional planned turnarounds in the queue for 2026. on balance, we now think cvr closed out 2025 with sales of $7.25 billion (down from our previous call of $7.4 billion) and earnings of $1.00 per share (down from $1.70).
-
management is focused on reshaping the balance sheet.a $1-billion private placement of unsecured senior notes with maturities in both 2031 and 2034 was recently announced. the proceeds are slated to refinance the current term loan and repay portions of notes due with upcoming maturities (2028 & 2029). indeed, concerns over short-term repayment obligations should be alleviated, however, these longer-term notes carry relatively high interest rates.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is refining margin compression at a 3.2% net margin.
high
refining and fertilizer spreads compress
this is a spread business. input costs and selling prices move separately, and the gap is where the profit lives.
at a 3.2% net margin, $7.2B of revenue only turns into roughly $230M of profit. there is not much cushion.
high
debt stays fixed while the cycle turns
long-term debt is $1.8B, or 42% of capital. management also issued $1B in new senior notes to refinance 2028 and 2029 maturities.
that debt load does not fall just because margins do. if earnings soften, equity absorbs the pain first.
med
earnings stay difficult to forecast
earnings predictability is 5 / 100. that's the market's polite way of saying the quarterly number can move around a lot.
when the earnings stream is unstable, the multiple usually stays unstable too.
med
environmental and regulatory costs rise
refining and fertilizer both live under heavy compliance regimes. extra cost hurts more when your net margin is already 3.2%.
this is not a 25% margin business that can shrug off new expense.
a business that keeps roughly $230M on $7.2B of revenue does not get many bad quarters for free.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
net margin
3.2% is the whole story. if that margin slips, the cheap-looking sales multiple stops helping you.
trend
whether Q4 was a bounce or a turn
Q4 revenue rose 6% from a year ago, but full-year revenue still fell 5.9%. you need follow-through, not one clean quarter.
risk
debt refinancing fallout
$1B of new senior notes solved a maturity issue. it did not make the capital structure lighter.
calendar
next earnings release
with earnings predictability at 5 / 100, the next print matters more here than it does for steadier businesses.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — analysts expect weaker relative performance in the near term.
risk profile
below average
stability score 4 — more volatile than most. this is a cyclical equity, not a sleep-well-at-night compounder.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — in human-speak, the chart has improved even if the business still looks messy.
earnings predictability
5 / 100
the quarterly number is hard to model. if you own it, expect surprises.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 104 buyers vs. 105 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$8
$34
$25
current price
$21
target midpoint · 15% from current · 3-5yr high: $50 (+100% · 21% ann'l return)
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