Start here if you're new
what it is
CTO owns shopping centers and other real estate assets, makes some management fees, and also holds a small lending book.
how it gets paid
Last year Cto Realty Growth made $150M in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 20.1% last year. EDGAR shows latest-quarter revenue up 195% vs. prior year.
what just happened
The quarter looked big on sales and ugly on profit: revenue hit $111M but EPS fell to -$0.74.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
10/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
245.5x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
8.1% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
2.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 51/100 — below average
What they do
CTO owns shopping centers and other real estate assets, makes some management fees, and also holds a small lending book.
This is not a flashy moat. It is a collection moat. You are buying 23 commercial properties across seven states and 4.7 million square feet that throw off rent while management also collects fees from Alpine Income Property Trust. Price stability of 95 out of 100 and a beta of 0.9 say the market sees a rent collector, not a story stock.
How they make money
$150M
annual revenue · their business grew +20.1% last year
total revenue
$150M
+20.1%
The products that matter
retail property cash flow
Shopping center portfolio
$142M · 95% of revenue
This is the rent engine. At 95% occupancy, even small leasing gains matter because they flow through the core portfolio first.
95% occupied
external growth pipeline
2026 acquisition plan
$100M–$200M targeted
Management wants to deploy $100M–$200M in 2026 at 8%–8.5% yields. That's how it plans to grow faster than the existing portfolio alone can.
8%–8.5% yields
strategic equity investment
Alpine Income Property Trust stake
$41.3M investment
The $41.3M stake adds another layer to the retail real estate story, but it is not large enough to rescue the thesis if property-level execution slips.
capital allocation watch
Key numbers
8.1%
dividend yield
This is the whole pitch for many shareholders: you are being paid cash today because growth is not the story.
$630M
long-term debt
Debt is the real boss here. It exceeds the company’s roughly $610 million market cap, so balance-sheet discipline matters more than headlines.
245.5x
p/e ratio
P/E ratio → how many dollars you pay for one dollar of earnings → so what: you are paying a lot for a company with very little earnings.
2.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit made on money invested in the business → so what: CTO is not squeezing much profit from its asset base.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 95 / 100
- long-term debt $630M (51% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for CTO right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
The quarter looked big on sales and ugly on profit: revenue hit $111M but EPS fell to -$0.74.
EDGAR shows latest-quarter revenue up 195% vs. prior year, but the same quarter posted a sharp loss. That contrast is the whole CTO problem right now: assets are getting bigger faster than earnings are getting cleaner.
$111M
revenue
$0.74
eps
74.5%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was the -$0.74 EPS loss, because it clashes with the stock's income-safe image and makes the 8.1% yield look less comfortable.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the #1 risk is an 8.1% dividend that looks generous until you compare it with a 1,689% earnings payout ratio.
high
Dividend coverage gets thin fast
The headline payout ratio is 1,689%. Management's 2026 core FFO guide of $1.98–$2.03 covers the $1.60 annual dividend, but not by much.
If acquisitions disappoint or property-level growth slows, the yield stops looking like upside and starts looking like a warning.
med
Acquisition math has to work
CTO wants to deploy $100M–$200M in 2026 at 8%–8.5% yields. That's the growth engine. Miss on pricing, timing, or financing, and the peer discount can stick around.
This is a stock where external growth is part of the thesis, not a bonus feature.
med
Legal overhang is real, even if the financial hit isn't clear yet
Pomerantz LLP filed a class action against CTO in August 2025 alleging securities law violations. The page data does not quantify exposure, so we won't pretend otherwise.
Even a manageable case can still create cost, distraction, and a reason for investors to stay cautious.
A $1.60 annual dividend against $1.98–$2.03 core FFO guidance leaves coverage, but not much. If same-property growth or acquisition yields slip, the 8.1% income case gets fragile.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
coverage
core FFO versus the $1.60 annual dividend
This is the entire income debate. If core FFO drifts below the current cushion, the yield story gets harder to defend.
deal calendar
$81.6M Palms Crossing closing
The acquisition was announced on March 2, 2026. You want the closing terms and initial yield to line up with management's 8%–8.5% target.
portfolio trend
3.5%–4.5% same-property NOI growth
This is the growth rate for properties CTO already owns. If the existing portfolio slows, acquisitions have to work even harder.
legal risk
class action updates
Watch for any dismissal, settlement, or expansion of the August 2025 case. Thin disclosure is still disclosure risk.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
10 / 100
In human-speak, don't expect smooth quarterly numbers here. This is a lumpy business with moving parts.
price stability
95 / 100
The stock price has been steadier than the underlying debate. You get less tape drama than the payout ratio would suggest.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for CTO is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$20
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive