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what it is
CSX moves coal, chemicals, containers, cars, and farm goods across 20,000 route miles in the eastern U.S.
how it gets paid
Last year CSX made about $14.1B in revenue. Merchandise freight was the largest piece at roughly $8.8B (about 62% of sales), with intermodal near $2.1B and coal near $1.9B.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 3.1% last year. Full-year 2025 EPS fell to $1.61 from $1.79 in 2024.
what just happened
CSX reported Q4 EPS of $0.39, missing the roughly $0.42 consensus by about 7%.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
85/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
23.8x trailing p/e — priced about right
1.7% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
13.5% return on capital — fine for a capital-heavy railroad
xvary composite: 73/100 — average
What they do
CSX moves coal, chemicals, containers, cars, and farm goods across 20,000 route miles in the eastern U.S.
Railroad moat → hard-to-copy network → so what: you are not building 20,000 route miles across 26 states and two Canadian provinces from scratch. CSX also links with more than 240 short-line railroads, so freight can reach places trucks alone cannot touch as cheaply. That network is why a very physical business still converts about 32.1% of revenue into operating profit on a full-year view.
How they make money
$14.1B
annual revenue · their business grew -3.1% last year
Merchandise
$8.8B
1.5%
Intermodal
$2.1B
+1.3%
Coal
$1.9B
15.4%
Trucking / transload
$0.8B
3.3%
Other
$0.5B
+6.2%
The products that matter
moves freight across rail network
Freight Railroad Network
$14.1B revenue · entire business
it's the whole company: a 20,000-mile network that generated about $14.1B in revenue with a roughly 21% net margin on a GAAP full-year 2025 basis. Reporting splits revenue across merchandise, intermodal, coal, trucking/transload, and other — mix and pricing there matter as much as train miles.
~21% net margin
Key numbers
32.1%
operating margin (FY)
Operating margin → profit after running the railroad → so what: CSX keeps about $0.32 from every $1 of revenue before interest and taxes.
$14.1B
annual revenue
Revenue fell 3.1% vs. prior year, which tells you this is still a volume business before it is a pricing story.
23.8x
trailing p/e
P/E → stock price divided by earnings → so what: you are paying almost 24 years of trailing profit for a mature railroad.
$18.2B
long-term debt
Debt equals 20% of capital, which is manageable with an A balance sheet grade but still a large fixed claim on future cash.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 90 / 100
- long-term debt $18.2B (20% of capital)
- net profit margin ~21% — keeps about 21 cents of every revenue dollar (2025 GAAP)
- return on equity ~23% — strong, but down from the high-20s after 2025 earnings reset
A with balance sheet grade and risk rank standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in CSX 3 years ago → it's now worth $12,280.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
CSX reported Q4 EPS of $0.39, missing the ~$0.42 consensus by about 7%.
Full-year 2025 EPS fell to $1.61 from $1.79 in 2024. The bigger story is not one quarter. Annual revenue also declined 3.1% to $14.1B.
$3.51B
Q4 revenue
$0.39
eps (q4)
31.6%
Q4 operating margin
the number that mattered
The key number was the ~7% EPS miss versus consensus, because a stock near 24x trailing earnings does not get much patience for small disappointments.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is a recession hitting eastern u.s. freight volumes.
high
freight demand downturn
CSX is tied to industrial output. When factories, housing, and consumer goods slow, rail cars fill more slowly too.
annual revenue already fell 3.1%; a deeper slowdown would pressure the full $14.1B business.
med
margin compression from weaker efficiency
railroads are fixed-cost machines. If volume drops faster than costs, margins can fall harder than revenue.
Q4 revenue fell about 1% vs. prior year, while EPS trailed the prior-year adjusted quarter — profit moved faster than the top line.
med
regulation, labor, and service disruptions
a railroad cannot hide operational issues. Safety mandates, labor friction, or network disruptions can raise costs and hurt service at the same time.
with a $71B valuation and a 23.8x trailing P/E, the stock does not have much patience for an avoidable stumble.
this is not a mystery-box risk profile: the main threat is weaker freight demand flowing straight into revenue, with fixed costs amplifying the hit to earnings.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
trend
whether revenue stops shrinking
annual revenue fell 3.1% and Q4 revenue slipped 1%. If that stabilizes, the stock has room. If it worsens, the multiple looks generous.
metric
EPS vs. revenue gap
Q4 EPS missed estimates even though revenue was only off about 1% vs. prior year. That gap tells you more about the operating model than the headline miss did.
calendar
next earnings for volume commentary
with limited segment detail on this page, management commentary on freight demand matters more than cosmetic estimate beats.
risk
rail safety and labor costs
the business can absorb normal cyclicality. It gets uglier when softer demand meets higher operating costs or service disruptions.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts see a stock moving with the market, not breaking away from it.
risk profile
above average
stability score 2 — safer than roughly 80% of stocks. That's what hard assets and predictable demand corridors buy you.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — no major signal either way. The chart is not making the case for you.
earnings predictability
85 / 100
management tends to produce steady numbers. Useful for trust, but predictability without growth only gets you so far.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
779 buyers vs. 670 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 1.4B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$27
$45
$38
current price
$36
target midpoint · 6% from current · 3-5yr high: $55 (+45% · 11% ann'l return)
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