Start here if you're new
what it is
Carlisle makes the stuff that keeps commercial buildings dry, sealed, and standing up to weather.
how it gets paid
Last year Carlisle Cos made $5.0B in revenue. commercial roofing systems was the main engine at $2.2B, or 44% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 0.3% last year. The 3% organic revenue decline matters most because it says demand weakened even before reported sales moved much.
what just happened
Carlisle's last report showed $1.13B in quarterly revenue as reroofing held up better than new construction.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
60/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
20.3x trailing p/e — priced about right
1.3% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
22.0% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 68/100 — average
What they do
Carlisle makes the stuff that keeps commercial buildings dry, sealed, and standing up to weather.
Carlisle wins because roofs fail on schedule, and owners have to fix them. That reroofing demand steadied results even while new construction stayed weak, and the business still posted a 27.5% operating margin. Return on capital was 22.0% in 2025, which means management turns every dollar tied up in the business into $0.22 of operating profit over time.
How they make money
$5.0B
annual revenue · their business grew +0.3% last year
commercial roofing systems
$2.2B
flat
architectural metals
$1.1B
3.0%
waterproofing and moisture protection
$1.0B
+6.5%
insulation and engineered foam
$0.7B
3.0%
The products that matter
roofing and waterproofing materials
Building Products
$5.0B revenue · core earnings engine
it is effectively the whole $5.0B story after Carlisle simplified the portfolio. when this category grows, the company grows. when it stalls, there is nowhere else to hide.
the whole story
Key numbers
27.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → what the business keeps after running itself → so what: Carlisle turns ordinary building products into unusually fat profits.
22.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money tied up in the business → so what: management is running this like a disciplined compounder, not a commodity shop.
$2.9B
long-term debt
Debt → borrowed money that has to be serviced regardless of the cycle → so what: the balance sheet is fine, but not invisible if construction stays soft.
20.3x
trailing p/e
P/E → how many dollars investors pay for one dollar of profit → so what: you are paying a premium to an industrial name with flat revenue.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 60 / 100
- long-term debt $2.9B (15% of capital)
- net profit margin 19.9% — keeps 20 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 48% — $0.48 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in CSL 3 years ago → it's now worth $15,600.
The index would have given you $14,540.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Carlisle's last report showed $1.13B in quarterly revenue as reroofing held up better than new construction.
Sales were essentially flat, but organic revenue fell about 3% and adjusted operating margin slipped to just over 22%. Yahoo Finance shows the last EPS print at $3.18 versus a $3.51 estimate, a 9.4% miss.
$1.13B
revenue
$3.18
eps
35.71%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 3% organic revenue decline matters most because it says demand weakened even before reported sales moved much.
-
sales were essentially flat at $1.13 billion, but organic revenue fell about 3% and adjusted earnings per share dropped 13%, to $3.90.
-
however, this was better than the declines that our estimates had called for.
-
the adjusted operating margin fell to just over 22%, reflecting both lower operating leverage and high spend.
-
to summarize the demand side, reroofing steadied results as new construction stayed weak.
-
this matches what we see across the broader market backdrop.indicators show architecture billings started 2026 in contraction territory and nonresidential construction spending slipped late in 2025, consistent with a slow new-build cycle.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the #1 risk is roofing-and-renovation demand staying soft.
med
roofing-and-renovation demand stays soft
Carlisle is now a far more concentrated building-products business. If reroofing, repair, remodel, or new construction budgets soften, the hit lands directly on the core revenue base.
Impact: with the company built around a $5.0B revenue engine, a weak cycle would pressure nearly the entire business at once.
med
raw material inflation
Roofing and waterproofing products do not make themselves. Higher input costs in polymers, chemicals, or metals can squeeze spread if pricing lags.
Impact: the current 16.4% net margin is one of the main reasons the stock works. If that margin slips, the quality premium slips with it.
med
portfolio concentration cuts both ways
The simplification story is appealing because it made Carlisle easier to understand. It also means there are fewer offsetting businesses if one end market stumbles.
Impact: a company trading at 20.3x trailing earnings can look full very quickly if sales stay near the current 0.3% pace and earnings keep declining from last year.
A slowdown in construction and renovation would hit the heart of the story because Carlisle now depends on one concentrated $5.0B building-products platform.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
revenue growth versus the 0.3% baseline
Near-flat annual sales are the current problem. If that number starts moving, your whole read on the stock changes fast.
risk
construction and renovation demand
Watch housing activity, reroofing demand, and broader construction budgets. Carlisle is more exposed now because the portfolio is more focused.
cal
the next earnings print
You want to see whether the next quarter still looks like Q4 2025 — $1.3B revenue, $5.00 EPS, and only modest sales growth from last year.
trend
institutional flow reversal
Two straight quarters of net selling is not fatal. It does mean a turn back to net buying would be a useful signal that conviction is rebuilding.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — in human-speak, analysts think CSL has better-than-average odds of outperforming over the next 12 months.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — the stock is not a bunker, but it is not a rollercoaster either.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — price action is constructive enough, just not screaming that something new has changed.
earnings predictability
60 / 100
Expect a decent operating business with some quarterly noise. This is more dependable than speculative, less dependable than a true compounder.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 241 buyers vs. 320 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 41.5M shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$289
$621
$394
current price
$455
target midpoint · +16% from current · 3-5yr high: $630 (+60% · 13% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive