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what it is
Crinetics makes hormone-disease drugs, with one FDA-approved treatment and a pipeline doing the heavy lifting on hope.
how it gets paid
Last year Crinetics Pharma made $8M in revenue. PALSONIFY launch revenue was the main engine at $3M, or 38% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 640.7% last year. Latest quarterly revenue was $2 million, up 973% vs. prior year, but EPS was -$3.66.
what just happened
The quarter said the same thing as the year: revenue is tiny at $2M, and losses are still doing most of the talking.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
95/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
-$3.69 fy2024 eps est
$1M fy2024 rev est
n/a operating margin
xvary composite: 59/100 — below average
What they do
Crinetics makes hormone-disease drugs, with one FDA-approved treatment and a pipeline doing the heavy lifting on hope.
Crinetics has one FDA-approved drug and 437 employees focused on endocrine disease. IP moat → patents and trial know-how → so what: if your drug already cleared the FDA, you start years ahead of a lab slide. The quiet part: with just $8 million of revenue in 2024, the moat is still mostly scientific proof, not cash.
How they make money
$8M
annual revenue · their business grew +640.7% last year
PALSONIFY launch revenue
$3M
paltusotine development revenue
$2M
atumelnant program revenue
$2M
discovery and preclinical revenue
$1M
The products that matter
oral endocrine disease candidate
Paltusotine
core value driver
the current equity story points here. with only $8M in revenue against a roughly $4B market cap, the lead program is doing most of the valuation work.
valuation anchor
adrenal disease candidate
Atumelnant
next key readout path
the Phase 1 study completed 4 days ago. The next real proof point is whether management moves it into Phase 2 on schedule.
phase 1 done
broader rare endocrine pipeline
Pipeline assets
$4B equity value
this is what you are actually paying for. the business produced just $8M in revenue, so almost all of the current value sits in unapproved assets.
binary upside
Key numbers
n/a
operating margin
Prior margin KPI failed sanity check — verify in filings. Operating margin → profit after operating costs → so what: Crinetics is still a science project with a launch, not a finished business.
$8M
ttm revenue
You are paying a ~$4B market cap for a company with $8M in trailing revenue. That gap tells you this stock trades on future drugs, not current sales.
$43M
long-term debt
Long-term debt is just 1% of capital, so the balance sheet is not the main problem. The main problem is turning trials into real sales.
437
employees
For a company this size, 437 employees tells you the cost base is built for development and launch before the revenue engine really arrives.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 15 / 100
- long-term debt $43M (1% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for CRNX right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
The quarter said the same thing as the year: revenue is tiny at $2M, and losses are still doing most of the talking.
Latest quarterly revenue was $2 million, up 973% vs. prior year, but EPS was -$3.66. Revenue growth → more sales versus last year → so what: the base is so small that even huge percentages do not fix the income statement.
$2M
revenue
$3.66
eps
n/a
operating margin
the number that mattered
$2 million matters because it shows the launch is real, but it is still tiny next to a roughly $4 billion equity value.
source: SEC filings and company quarterly results, 2024
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is paltusotine and broader pipeline disappointment. With only $8M in revenue against a roughly $4B market cap, this stock has very little fundamental cushion if the science slips.
med
lead-program failure
The valuation is built on eventual approvals. If paltusotine stumbles in a meaningful way, a large chunk of the current equity story goes with it.
Impact: the company has just $8M in revenue today, so there is no mature operating business here to absorb a major clinical setback.
med
timeline slippage
Atumelnant just finished Phase 1. If Phase 2 slips or other pipeline milestones get pushed, investors start discounting not just probability of success but time to value.
Impact: biotech multiples hate waiting. A delay can compress valuation even if the science itself remains intact.
med
financing dilution
Losses are still the model, with fy2024 EPS estimated at -$3.69 and only modest revenue. More trials usually mean more cash burn.
Impact: if capital needs arrive before a major de-risking event, shareholders may fund the science through dilution rather than through cash flow.
med
insider signal is weak
Insider ownership is 4.6%, but the recent activity matters more: 9 insiders sold in the last year and zero bought.
Impact: insider selling does not prove trouble, but it gives you less alignment comfort in a stock already priced for future wins.
Almost all of the current value sits in future outcomes. A forced reset in clinical expectations would hit a stock valued at roughly $4B on only $8M of revenue.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
next catalyst
Atumelnant Phase 2 timing
Phase 1 finished 4 days ago. The next thing you want is a clean handoff into Phase 2, because early programs become expensive if they start slipping before they mature.
valuation
whether 488x sales still looks defendable
As long as revenue sits around $8M, the stock will trade on probability-weighted drug value. Any hiccup makes that multiple feel less like ambition and more like denial.
risk
cash needs versus trial progress
With estimated EPS at -$3.69, you care less about accounting optics and more about whether pipeline progress arrives before fresh capital is needed.
sentiment
whether analyst optimism holds
The average target is $83.50 from 14 analysts. If those targets start falling without a matching stock reset, the market is telling you conviction is slipping under the hood.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
95 / 100
in human-speak, analysts think management's reported numbers land close to expectations even though the stock itself remains driven by pipeline events.
analyst target spread
$83.50 avg
The street is still leaning optimistic. That helps sentiment, but price targets in biotech often follow the readout calendar more than the business model.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for CRNX is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$48
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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