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what it is
Catalyst sells niche neurology drugs, led by Firdapse, to small patient groups that can support very high pricing.
how it gets paid
Last year Catalyst Pharma made $589M in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 19.8% last year. $0.41 mattered because it showed the market is now judging Catalyst against expectations.
what just happened
The last print was a tiny miss at $0.41 EPS versus $0.42 expected, even as EDGAR shows very strong vs. prior year growth.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
35/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
14.2x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
19.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 56/100 — below average
What they do
Catalyst sells niche neurology drugs, led by Firdapse, to small patient groups that can support very high pricing.
Catalyst wins by selling orphan drugs, which means rare-disease medicines, so fewer competitors chase the same patients. You can see the grip in the mix: Firdapse was 62% of 2024 sales, or about $365 million of the $589 million total, and operating margin was 45.0%. Quiet part out loud: when you serve tiny markets well, you do not need huge volume to print cash.
How they make money
$589M
annual revenue · their business grew +19.8% last year
total revenue
$589M
+19.8%
The products that matter
LEMS therapy
Firdapse
$0.6B revenue
this single drug generated $0.6B in revenue last year and drove the company's 19.8% top-line growth. when one product does that much work, you stop calling it a segment and start calling it the story.
core engine
Key numbers
45.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → money left after running the business → so what: Catalyst turns nearly half of sales into operating profit, which is rare.
14.2x
trailing p/e
P/E → price versus last 12 months' earnings → so what: you are paying a mid-teens multiple for a company with 31.9% net margins.
19.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the money tied up in the business → so what: this is a solid efficiency number for a small pharma name.
$200M
buyback plan
Buyback → the company repurchases its own stock → so what: $200 million is about 6.7% of a $3 billion market cap.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 20 / 100
- net profit margin 31.9% — keeps 32 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 22% — $0.22 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in CPRX 3 years ago → it's now worth $14,360.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
The last print was a tiny miss at $0.41 EPS versus $0.42 expected, even as EDGAR shows very strong vs. prior year growth.
Yahoo Finance says the latest reported EPS was $0.41 versus a $0.42 estimate, a 2.38% miss. EDGAR lists latest-quarter revenue at $436 million, up 194% vs. prior year, and latest-quarter EPS at $1.27, up 202%, so the quarter had strong underlying growth but messy headline comparisons across sources.
$436M
revenue
$0.41
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
$0.41 mattered because it showed the market is now judging Catalyst against expectations, not just growth, and it came in 1 cent short.
-
sales of core drug firdapse should rise 7% to $360 million.
-
agamree sales ought to be up around 5% to $110 million, while fycompa volume will likely be down 6% to $105 million.
-
the latter drug is suffering from increasing generic competition, specifically from teva (teva).costs as a percentage of sales should remain the same, meaning that the bottom-line increase is solely a result of the sales hike.
-
catalyst is using its enhanced cash flow to buy back $200 million worth of shares.
-
this will elevate the per-share figures.
source:, EDGAR, Yahoo Finance, 2025
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is Firdapse concentration.
med
Firdapse concentration
One drug generated the $0.6B revenue base. That is great when the asset is protected and brutal if anything interrupts pricing, volume, or exclusivity.
This is the cleanest way to say it: most of the business is tied to one product, so product-specific trouble becomes company-wide trouble fast.
med
orphan-drug pricing pressure
Rare-disease economics work because small patient populations can still support high pricing. If reimbursement or price negotiation turns against that model, margins feel it immediately.
A 37.7% net margin leaves a lot to defend. That is wonderful when pricing holds and much less wonderful when regulators start asking questions.
med
pipeline depth and second-engine risk
The current snapshot does not show a meaningful second revenue engine. That means future diversification still has to be proven, not assumed.
If growth fades from the current 19.8% pace and nothing else steps up, the low multiple stops looking like a bargain and starts looking accurate.
If pricing power, exclusivity, or demand around Firdapse cracks, the $0.6B revenue base has very little cover from somewhere else.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
risk
Firdapse concentration staying this high
When one product drives a $0.6B revenue base, every update on that product matters more than the headline revenue number.
metric
growth versus the current 19.8% pace
This stock looks cheap partly because growth is still strong. If that slows materially, the valuation argument gets weaker fast.
calendar
next earnings print
The street wants $0.50 EPS on $0.1B revenue. You care less about the beat and more about whether concentration looks any better.
trend
margin durability
A 37.7% net margin is elite for a company this size. If that starts slipping, the market will assume the best part of the story is fading.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — in human-speak, analysts think CPRX has better near-term price prospects than most stocks.
risk profile
below average
stability score 4 — more volatile than most. You are getting paid with a lower multiple because the ride is not especially smooth.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — no dramatic trend signal here. The business case matters more than the chart right now.
earnings predictability
35 / 100
the score is low, which means the quarterly numbers can surprise you. For a one-drug story, that matters more than usual.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
174 buyers vs. 175 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$21
$58
$24
current price
$40
target midpoint · +65% from current · 3-5yr high: $40 (+65% · 14% ann'l return)
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