Start here if you're new
what it is
ConocoPhillips finds and sells oil, natural gas, and related liquids from nearly 30 countries.
how it gets paid
Last year Conocophillips made $51.8B in revenue. Crude oil was the main engine at $35.7B, or 69% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 4.9% last year. Revenue was $40.4B, up 203% vs. prior year, but the market cared more about the earnings miss.
what just happened
The quarter was a miss, with EPS landing 29.7% below estimates at $1.16 versus $1.65 expected.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
15/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
13.3x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
3.6% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
12.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 71/100 — average
What they do
ConocoPhillips finds and sells oil, natural gas, and related liquids from nearly 30 countries.
Scale still matters here. ConocoPhillips produced 1,987 MBOED in 2024 and held 7.8 billion BBOE of proved reserves, so your barrel base is deep before new drilling starts. Reserve replacement ratio → replacing what you pump → future output stays alive. It ran at 244% in 2024, or more than double what it produced.
How they make money
$51.8B
annual revenue · their business grew +4.9% last year
Crude oil
$35.7B
Natural gas
$8.3B
NGLs
$5.2B
Oil sands and bitumen
$1.6B
Other revenue
$1.0B
The products that matter
produces and sells crude oil
Crude Oil
$35.7B · 69% of revenue
It's the center of gravity at $35.7B, accounting for 69% of sales. If crude prices move, your investment case moves with them.
69% of revenue
produces natural gas liquids
Natural Gas Liquids
$12.4B · 24% of revenue
This $12.4B segment is nearly one-quarter of revenue. It helps diversify the barrel mix, but it does not change the fact that you still own a hydrocarbon producer.
24% of revenue
produces and sells bitumen
Bitumen
$3.6B · 7% of revenue
At $3.6B, bitumen is the smallest of the three major revenue buckets. It matters, but it is not the part of the business setting the stock's direction.
7% of revenue
Key numbers
49.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → money left after running the business → COP keeps almost half of revenue before interest and taxes.
$22.5B
long-term debt
Debt is 16% of capital, which is light for a company this size and helps explain the A balance sheet grade.
244%
reserve replacement
Reserve replacement → new barrels found versus barrels produced → COP replaced more than twice what it pumped in 2024.
3.6%
dividend yield
You are getting paid 3.6% a year while waiting for the stock to close the gap to $117.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 55 / 100
- long-term debt $22.5B (16% of capital)
- net profit margin 17.6% — keeps 18 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 16% — $0.16 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A — among the top-rated companies for balance sheet quality.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in COP 3 years ago → it's now worth $8,760.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
The quarter was a miss, with EPS landing 29.7% below estimates at $1.16 versus $1.65 expected.
Revenue was $40.4B, up 203% vs. prior year, but the market cared more about the earnings miss. Quiet part loud: when an oil producer misses by 29.7%, investors assume the commodity backdrop is doing more work than the business.
$40.4B
revenue
$1.16
eps
29.7%
eps surprise
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was the 29.7% EPS miss, because one ugly quarter can keep a 13.3x stock cheap.
-
conocophillips’ cash horde should expand over the next few quarters.
-
in september, the company announced layoffs of 25% of its global employees, which should reduce costs substantially.in addition, conoco should receive tax savings from the one big beautiful bill act, and $1 billion in cost from the marathon oil acquisition. conoco is also expecting higher-than-initially-expected cash distributions from its investment in australia pacific lng. furthermore, the company is disposing of noncore assets, with the goal of offloading $5 billion worth by the end of 2026.
-
the bounty will likely be used to grow the liquified natural gas (lng) portfolio.we look for cop to increasingly diversify by adding more lng assets via equity stakes and minor acquisitions.
-
currently, the company has a 30% stake in sempra’s port arthur, tx.
-
lng projects.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the #1 risk is crude oil price exposure — 69% of revenue comes from crude oil, so you do not get much hiding place if the commodity turns against you.
med
crude oil price weakness
Crude oil generated $35.7B of the company's $51.8B revenue. That's the core economic engine. When crude prices fall, cash generation and valuation usually fall with them.
This risk directly touches 69% of revenue. The dividend may cushion the ride, but it does not change what business you own.
med
restructuring and integration execution
A 25% workforce reduction, $1B of expected Marathon cost savings, and $5B of planned asset sales is a lot happening at once. Cost-cutting stories sound clean on slides. They get messy in the field.
If those moves fail to improve per-share earnings, the latest pattern of revenue up and EPS down could keep going — and the cheap multiple may stay cheap.
med
lng diversification takes time
Management wants more LNG exposure and already owns 30% of Port Arthur. That's strategic logic, not instant transformation. Today the revenue mix is still 69% crude, 24% NGLs, and 7% bitumen.
Until LNG becomes materially larger, COP will trade first as an upstream hydrocarbon producer and only second as a diversification story.
All $51.8B of revenue comes from hydrocarbons, and $35.7B comes from crude oil alone. That's the combined risk picture in one sentence.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings quality
does EPS start following revenue again
Revenue grew 14% in the latest quarter while EPS fell 22%. If that gap persists, the cost-cutting story is not fixing the part that matters.
capital plan
progress toward $5B of asset sales by end-2026
Management wants to offload $5B of noncore assets by the end of 2026. You want to see whether that becomes cleaner focus or just portfolio reshuffling.
mix shift
whether lng becomes more than a side bet
The 30% Port Arthur stake matters, but today's revenue still comes from crude, NGLs, and bitumen. Watch whether the strategic language starts showing up in the revenue mix.
ownership
institutional selling finally stops
Big money was net selling for 2 straight quarters, with 988 buyers versus 1,012 sellers in 3Q2025. You want that pressure to flatten before calling sentiment repaired.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
outlook rank 2 — in human-speak, analysts think COP has better-than-average odds of outperforming over the next year.
risk profile
average
risk rank 3 — standard risk on the ranking scale, but remember this is still an energy stock with commodity exposure.
chart momentum
below average
momentum rank 4 — the tape has not been helping recently. Analysts see near-term performance lag risk.
earnings predictability
15 / 100
A 15/100 score means quarterly earnings are hard to forecast. In plain English: expect noise, and sometimes a lot of it.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 988 buyers vs. 1,012 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 1.0B shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$75
$158
$96
current price
$117
target midpoint · +23% from current · 3-5yr high: $150 (+55% · 15% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive