Start here if you're new
what it is
Coinbase is the toll booth for buying, selling, storing, and using crypto in more than 100 countries.
how it gets paid
Last year Coinbase Global made $7.2B in revenue. Consumer transaction revenue was the main engine at $3.8B, or 53% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 9.4% last year on a ~$7.2B FY anchor. Triple-digit vs. prior year lines in vendor feeds are usually a quarter or pro-forma base—pair them to the filing before you quote them next to FY growth.
what just happened
Revenue hit $5.4B, but the last reported EPS landed at -$2.49 versus a $1.52 estimate.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
29.5x trailing p/e — priced about right
14.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 41/100 — below average
$6.60 fy2026 eps est
What they do
Coinbase is the toll booth for buying, selling, storing, and using crypto in more than 100 countries.
Coinbase wins because it is the regulated on-ramp for people who want crypto without wiring money to a sketchy website. It operates in more than 100 countries and generated $7.2 billion in annual revenue, which tells you trust still has a price tag. Self-custody wallets (holding your own crypto keys) → controlling your assets yourself → so what, Coinbase gets paid both when you trade and when you stay in its system.
How they make money
$7.2B
annual revenue · their business grew +9.4% last year
Consumer transaction revenue
$3.8B
Institutional transaction revenue
$0.5B
Stablecoin revenue
$1.0B
Blockchain rewards revenue
$0.8B
Custodial and other subscription revenue
$1.1B
The products that matter
crypto trading and execution
transaction revenue
core swing factor
the table does split consumer vs institutional transaction revenue; what you do not get here is a clean “take rate” bridge. Even so, when activity rises, profits snap higher fast.
cyclical engine
subscription and services revenue
subscription and services
$3.6B base
this $3.6B business matters because it is the part investors can underwrite with something close to a straight face. If that line grows as a share of total revenue, Coinbase starts looking less like a trading booth and more like infrastructure.
stability watch
custody, prime, and institutional access
institutional platform
trust business
the page gives you institutional buying data, not platform revenue detail. That still tells you something. Big money is comfortable owning the stock because the platform has a regulated seat at the table. In this industry, trust is a product.
reputation moat
Key numbers
29.5x
trailing p/e
Price-to-earnings → how much you pay for each dollar of profit → so what, you are paying a full price for a business with very uneven profits.
20.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after core costs → so what, Coinbase can be very profitable when trading activity is strong.
14.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit from the money used in the business → so what, Coinbase is not just growing, it can earn solid returns when the cycle cooperates.
$5.9B
long-term debt
Debt is only 8% of capital, which means the balance sheet is not the main problem here. The business cycle is.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $5.9B (8% of capital)
- net profit margin 29.4% — keeps 29 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 20% — $0.20 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for COIN right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $5.4B, but the last reported EPS landed at -$2.49 versus a $1.52 estimate.
If a wire shows +189% vs. prior year revenue, check the comp quarter—do not stack it against the +9.4% FY line without a period label. The headline loss is GAAP-style EPS vs an adjusted consensus in some feeds.
$5.4B
revenue (Q)
-$2.49
eps (Q)
20.0%
gross margin (Q)
the number that mattered
GAAP EPS at -$2.49 versus a ~$1.52 street mark is the tension: the multiple in the KPI strip is usually on a different earnings basis or window than one bruising quarter—read the footnotes before you reconcile.
-
coinbase global likely posted strong fourth-quarter results.revenues probably expanded to around $2.0 billion, aided by higher cryptocurrency trading activity and growth in its derivatives business, helped by the deribit acquisition. consumer transaction volumes likely benefited from unique token listings and rising asset prices, while institutional transaction revenue probably remained strong, thanks to the rise in options trading.
-
subscription and services income likely gained from stablecoin revenues.on the cost side, technology and development expenses probably increased due to headcount additions from recent acquisitions, while sales and marketing costs likely rose as well.
-
still, we think operating leverage allowed profits to advance.
-
overall, we estimate earnings of $1.52 per share during the quarter. we expect a profit decline in 2026.
-
the cryptocurrency market continues to benefit from accelerating institutional adoption.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
Coinbase's core problem is simple: you can like the platform and still get hurt by the cycle. A regulated brand helps. It does not repeal crypto volatility.
high
crypto trading slowdown
the page's own revenue framing keeps returning to trading activity. If retail and institutional participation cools, the $7.2B revenue base feels it quickly because transaction economics still set the tone.
less activity means less fee revenue, less operating leverage, and a very different conversation around 29.5x earnings.
med
US rule changes hit the good guys too
Coinbase's biggest advantage is that it operates inside the US regulatory perimeter. That also means tighter listing rules, compliance costs, or court setbacks would hit the company directly and publicly.
if policy turns less friendly, margins usually feel it before revenue headlines do.
med
the recurring-revenue story stalls
the $3.6B subscription and services base is the part of the thesis trying to calm the whole stock down. If that mix stops growing relative to the rest of the business, Coinbase stays stuck as a volume trade.
that would leave investors paying a premium multiple for a business the market still values like a cycle.
med
trust shock from platform or custody issues
an exchange sells confidence as much as execution. Any security, uptime, or custody failure would matter more here because regulated trust is part of the product.
when trust breaks at a financial platform, users move first. The stock usually follows.
B++ balance sheet strength softens the downside. A 5 / 100 price stability score says the stock can still trade like fear with a login screen.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
how much of the story is still trading
the page gives you $7.2B in total revenue and a $3.6B subscription and services base. That means roughly half the business still sits outside the calmer bucket. You want that gap closing, not widening.
trend
subscription and services mix
this is the stabilizer. If it keeps becoming a larger share of revenue, the stock has a real shot at trading more like infrastructure and less like a mood ring.
cal
regulatory calendar
court decisions, SEC posture, and any clearer US rulebook can reset valuation faster than a normal earnings beat because regulation is part of the business model here.
risk
price stability
5 / 100 is the warning label. If you own this, position sizing matters because the balance sheet can be average while the stock acts anything but average.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
bottom 5%
momentum score 5 is the lowest rating. in human-speak, analysts think the next stretch still has room to disappoint even after the latest rebound.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 means typical balance-sheet risk, not typical stock behavior. the business looks average on paper. the tape does not.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 says the chart has improved. that's the contradiction: price action can look better while the underlying earnings power still depends on activity staying hot.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 826 buyers vs. 438 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$150
$431
$248
current price
$291
target midpoint · +17% from current · 3-5yr high: $430 (+75% · 15% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive