Start here if you're new
what it is
Centessa is a clinical-stage biotech trying to turn an orexin sleep-wake drug program into a real business.
how it gets paid
There is still $0 product revenue; trailing twelve months show about $15M of collaboration and other revenue—microscopic next to a ~$4B market cap.
what just happened
The clean takeaway is simple: about $15M trailing-twelve-month revenue (collaboration/other) is still tiny for a company valued near $4 billion—do not read that as a full quarterly run-rate unless filings show one quarter that large.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
-$2.06 fy2024 eps est
~$7M FY2023 Street rev est (stale vintage—this page uses ~$15M TTM collaboration/other revenue)
0.7 beta
~$4B market cap
xvary composite: 51/100 — below average
What they do
Centessa is a clinical-stage biotech trying to turn an orexin sleep-wake drug program into a real business.
This is not a classic moat. Its edge is focus plus time. With 77 employees and $118 million of long-term debt, you are backing a small, concentrated team, not a sprawling biotech machine. If its OX2R agonist program works, that concentration helps; if it fails, your edge goes with it.
How they make money
~$15M
trailing revenue (collaboration / other · no product sales)
OX2R agonist program
$0M
flat
LockBody immuno-oncology
$0M
flat
Collaboration and other revenue
$15M
up
Legacy or non-core programs
$0M
flat
The products that matter
orexin receptor agonist program
ORX750
$0 product revenue
Management frames ORX750 as the lead asset for sleep disorders. Right now it has generated $0 in product revenue, yet it sits at the center of a roughly $4B equity story.
lead asset
broader clinical pipeline
Pipeline Assets
$0 product revenue
The rest of the pipeline helps support the premium valuation, but it also contributed $0 to the reported $15M in trailing revenue. You are paying for future probability, not current cash flow.
optionality
Key numbers
-$2.06
FY2024 EPS est
EPS → profit or loss per share → so what: the data strip still points to about a $2.06 per share loss—you are funding development, not collecting operating profits.
$118M
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money due years from now → so what: debt is only 3% of capital, so leverage is not the immediate problem. Execution is.
$15M
TTM revenue
Trailing revenue → the last 12 months of sales → so what: $15 million is microscopic next to a roughly $4 billion market cap.
0.7
beta
Beta → how jumpy a stock is versus the market → so what: CNTA trades less wildly than many biotechs, but clinical readouts can still break that calm fast.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $118M (3% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for CNTA right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
The clean takeaway is simple: about $15M TTM revenue (collaboration/other) is still tiny for a company valued near $4 billion.
The numbers are messy across sources. FY2024 EPS is estimated around -$2.06; one EDGAR quarterly print shows about -$0.98 per share, while another consensus line shows roughly -$0.41 for a different period—so treat EPS as period-tagged, not one clean “last quarter” number. The through-line is still cash burn versus pipeline promise.
~$15M
rev (TTM)
-$0.98
eps (one q print)
-$2.06
fy2024 eps est
the number that mattered
~$15 million of trailing revenue versus a roughly $4 billion market cap is the quiet part out loud. This stock is priced on future trial success, not current operations.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is ORX750 clinical disappointment — because CNTA has no approved products and only $15M in trailing revenue to absorb bad data.
med
ORX750 does not validate the thesis
This company is being valued on pipeline probability, not product sales. If the lead orexin program disappoints, there is no established business to cushion the blow.
A failed lead readout would hit the core reason the stock trades at 12.6x book.
med
The premium multiple stops getting the benefit of the doubt
CNTA trades at a 385% premium to the 2.6x industry average on price-to-book. That can work when momentum and data are cooperative. It works less well when investors start asking for proof.
A rerating toward peer multiples would pressure the stock even without a clinical failure.
med
Leadership transition during a critical clinical phase
A new CEO took over on January 1, 2026. That is not automatically bad. It does mean the company is navigating pivotal development work while also changing leadership.
If execution slips, investors are left with losses, limited revenue, and less patience.
A $4B valuation on $15M in trailing revenue leaves very little room for delay, weak data, or a colder market for biotech risk.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
lead catalyst
ORX750 dose selection and clinical updates
This is the event that has to justify the premium valuation. If the lead orexin program de-risks, the stock has a story. If not, the multiple has a problem.
numbers
Losses versus tiny revenue
Keep the mismatch in view: $15M in trailing revenue, a n/a net margin, and -$1.83 EPS over the last four quarters. The science has to outrun the burn.
street setup
Whether analysts keep defending the $38 median target
The current range is $30 to $62 across 18 analysts. That is a wide spread. Watch whether targets narrow after the next real pipeline signal.
execution
First stretch under the new CEO
Leadership changed on Jan 1, 2026. You want continuity in trial execution, clean communication, and no surprises around timing or priorities.
Analyst rankings
risk profile
average
risk rank 3 — typical risk profile — neither especially safe nor risky.
chart momentum
below average
momentum rank 4 — analysts see underperformance risk in the near term.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for CNTA is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$23
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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