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what it is
Core mines coal and ships it to steel mills and power plants through its own terminals.
how it gets paid
Last year Core Natural Res made $4.2B in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 92.4% last year. Revenue rose 211% vs. prior year. The problem is the earnings line still went negative.
what just happened
Core posted $3.1B of revenue, but quarterly EPS fell to -$1.44.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
4.1x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
0.4% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
18.1% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 47/100 — below average
What they do
Core mines coal and ships it to steel mills and power plants through its own terminals.
Core owns 2 marine export terminals, so your coal does not need to ask strangers for a ride. That cuts friction. It also posted 18.1% return on capital (profit on money invested), while the stock trades at 4.1x earnings. You are buying a dirty supply chain that still throws off cash.
How they make money
$4.2B
annual revenue · their business grew +92.4% last year
total revenue
$4.2B
+92.4%
The products that matter
steelmaking coal sales
Metallurgical Coal
$2.9B · 69% of segment mix shown
This is the part of the story that does the emotional work. The snapshot shows $2.9B here versus $1.3B for thermal coal. If met coal pricing cracks, the earnings story usually cracks first.
higher-value product
power generation coal sales
Thermal Coal
$1.3B · 31% of segment mix shown
This is still a real business at $1.3B. But when investors get nervous, thermal coal usually reads more like ballast than rescue.
volume over margin
capital return policy
Dividend
$0.10 quarterly · 0.4% yield
The payout is small. At about $8M per quarter, it matters less as income and more as a scoreboard for cash generation. If cash flow gets pinched, this is where the stress shows up in public.
cash flow test
Key numbers
$4.2B
annual revenue
The company nearly doubled sales. That is the whole story: the business got much bigger, not prettier.
4.1x
trailing P/E
You pay $4.10 for $1 of trailing earnings. Cheap only matters if earnings survive.
18.1%
return on capital
Core earns $18.10 on every $100 it puts into the business. Most coal companies would frame that.
$334M
long-term debt
Long-term debt is only 6% of capital. That gives the balance sheet room to breathe if coal prices cool.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 15 / 100
- long-term debt $334M (6% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for CNR right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Core posted $3.1B of revenue, but quarterly EPS fell to -$1.44.
Revenue rose 211% vs. prior year. The problem is the earnings line still went negative, which tells you the mix and costs moved against it.
$3.1B
revenue
$1.44
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
Revenue mattered more than EPS because the quarter showed $3.1B of sales, but the bottom line still turned to a $1.44 loss per share.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is coal pricing staying weak while margins stay thin. CNR just showed you a business that can produce $1.04B in quarterly revenue and still lose money.
high
coal price volatility
This is the direct hit. Lower realized coal prices pressure revenue and margins fast. With EBITDA margin already at 10%, there is not much room for another bad move in pricing.
10% EBITDA margin means even a modest pricing hit matters.
med
earnings whiplash
The company earned $31.6M in Q3 and then reported EPS of -$1.54 in Q4. That kind of swing is why the 4.1x multiple does not automatically mean bargain.
20/100 earnings predictability is the proof beat.
med
cash flow needs to show up
Management is talking about stronger free cash flow in 2026, but the trailing figure cited on this page is about $8.6M. For a $5B market cap company, that's thin.
If free cash flow stays around $8.6M, the cheap multiple starts looking like a trap.
low
the story can lose altitude
Parts of the bull case leaned on coal as a durable energy and industrial trade. That story works until margins don't back it up. If EBITDA margin stays near 10%, the market will care less about the narrative and more about the income statement.
Cheap stocks still fall when the reason for cheapness gets louder.
What would change our mind on the cheap-multiple argument: EBITDA margin staying around 10% and free cash flow failing to improve from roughly $8.6M. If that combination sticks, the discount is deserved.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
Q1 2026 earnings
Expected May 5, 2026, pre-market. You want to know whether Q4 was one ugly quarter or the start of a weaker earnings run.
margin
EBITDA margin
Last quarter came in at 10%, down from 14% in the prior quarter. If that does not recover, the 4.1x multiple is a warning label.
cash flow
free cash flow follow-through
Management expects stronger free cash flow in 2026. The trailing figure cited here is about $8.6M, so you want to see actual improvement, not just a better script.
street view
analyst target range
The average 12-month target from four analysts is $109.50, with a range of $100 to $119. Useful context, but coal prices will matter more than target edits.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
20 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not trust this earnings stream to stay smooth.
12-month target range
$100–$119
The average target is $109.50 from four analysts. Translation: the street sees upside, but it also sees a lot of ways this can get messy.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for CNR is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$85
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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