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what it is
Canadian National moves freight across Canada and deep into the U.S. on a rail network most rivals cannot replicate.
how it gets paid
Last year Canadian National made $12.6B in revenue. Intermodal was the main engine at $2.9B, or 23% of sales.
what just happened
Q4 EPS came in at $1.54, ahead of the $1.51 consensus, while quarterly revenue still grew 2%.
At a glance
A+ balance sheet — rock-solid finances — built to survive anything
85/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
19.0x trailing p/e — priced about right
2.6% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
13.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 80/100 — above average
What they do
Canadian National moves freight across Canada and deep into the U.S. on a rail network most rivals cannot replicate.
You cannot fake 20,000 route miles that run east-west across Canada and north-south to the Gulf of Mexico. If your freight already rides this network, switching costs (changing suppliers) become operational pain, so your shipment risk goes up. That scale pairs with the margin story told through operating ratio (~57.5% in recent commentary here—not 52% “margin” mislabeled), while the railroad runs with about 23,800 employees.
How they make money
$12.6B
annual revenue
Intermodal
$2.9B
+10%
Grain & Fertilizers
$2.8B
n/a
Petroleum & Chemicals
$2.6B
n/a
Metals & Minerals
$1.5B
n/a
Forest Products
$1.4B
n/a
Coal + Automotive
$1.4B
n/a
The products that matter
hauls grain, fertilizer, and other bulk loads
Bulk Commodities
~$9.7B · commodity rows ex-intermodal
Grain, petroleum, metals, forest, and coal rows on this page sum to about $9.7B vs $12.6B total—intermodal is separate at ~$2.9B. The December quarter included ~6% growth in grain and fertilizer volumes.
largest segment shown
moves containers across the network
Intermodal
$2.9B revenue row · +10% on table
this line matches the intermodal row (~$2.9B). Earnings copy here cites ~10% higher intermodal volume in the December period, which helped revenue growth.
volume driver
serves industrial and manufacturing freight
Merchandise
cyclical merchandise pressure
Tariffs and a sluggish North American economy have pressured forest products and metals shipments—the revenue table breaks those out; do not rely on a single conflicting “merchandise” dollar here.
cyclical pressure
Key numbers
$6.50
fy2027 eps est
$16B
fy2029 rev est
19.0x
trailing p/e
2.6%
dividend yield
Financial health
A+
strength
- balance sheet grade A+ — near the highest rating possible
- risk rank 1 — safer than 95% of stocks
- price stability 90 / 100
- long-term debt $14.8B (20% of capital)
- net profit margin 30.4% — keeps 30 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 24% — $0.24 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A+ with balance sheet grade and risk rank standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in CNI 3 years ago → it's now worth $8,550.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Q4 EPS came in at $1.54, ahead of the $1.51 consensus, while quarterly revenue still grew 2%.
The quarter was paced by intermodal, where volume rose 10%. Earnings rose 16% vs. prior year, making it the strongest quarter of 2025.
$1.54
q4 eps
$1.51
eps estimate
1.99%
surprise
the number that mattered
The key number was $1.54, because it was the strongest quarter of the year and showed margins can still hold up when volumes improve.
-
canadian national finished 2025 with solid results.
-
it reversed the trend of negative top-line comparisons over the past several quarters with a 2% revenue increase in the december period.
-
the gain was paced by the intermodal business, which posted a 10% pick up in volume, and grain and fertilizers which recorded 6% growth.shipments of forests products and metals were hurt by tariffs and a sluggish north american economy.
-
earnings rose 16%, to $1.54 a share, the strongest quarter of the year. we look for the solid momentum to continue in 2026.shipments of grain are expected to remain strong for the year as a whole with another robust harvest expected. rising chinese demand for soybeans and robust corn exports are expected to help results in the first half of the year.
-
efficiency measures are expected to continue, as well.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is north american freight softness hitting intermodal and industrial shipments at the same time.
med
volume growth could fade fast
the recent improvement was narrow. intermodal volume rose 10% and grain plus fertilizer rose 6%, but merchandise still fell 1%. if the strong lanes cool off, the growth rebound gets thin very quickly.
bulk commodities and intermodal represent $10.2B of the $12.6B shown segment mix here.
med
efficiency gains are doing a lot of the work
EPS rose 14% while revenue in the december period rose just 2%. that's great when the operating ratio is falling to 57.5%. it becomes a problem if service levels, labor costs, or fuel pressure push that ratio back up.
this is the core margin story behind the stock.
low
tariffs and industrial weakness are already visible
management has already pointed to weaker forest products and metals shipments. that's your reminder that railroads are economic instruments, not software subscriptions.
pressure is concentrated in the $2.4B merchandise bucket shown on this page.
med
institutions have been sellers, not helpers
290 institutions bought versus 384 sellers in 3Q2025, marking two straight quarters of net selling. fundamentals can stay fine while the multiple goes nowhere.
that matters more when the stock already trades near the $104 target midpoint shown below.
the operational risk is freight mix. the market risk is sentiment. if volume softens and institutions keep trimming, you can get a stable business with a sleepy stock.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
the key metric
operating ratio after 57.5%
if that number stays near 57.5%, the efficiency story is intact. if it drifts back up, the margin win from the last quarter starts to unwind.
freight mix
intermodal and grain volumes
the december period had 10% intermodal volume growth and 6% growth in grain plus fertilizer. you want to see those lanes carry the growth burden again next quarter.
capital return
24M share buyback pace
authorization is one thing. execution is another. if repurchases show up quickly, per-share earnings get help even if revenue stays tame.
macro risk
tariff damage in industrial freight
forest products and metals were already pressured. if that spreads beyond the weaker lanes, the revenue rebound can stall before it becomes a trend.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
85 / 100
management usually delivers a narrow earnings range. in human-speak, analysts see this as a dependable operator, not a surprise machine.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 290 buyers vs. 384 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.4B shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$82
$125
$105
current price
$104
target midpoint · 1% from current · 3-5yr high: $170 (+80% · 17% ann'l return)
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