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what it is
CNH sells tractors, construction machines, and equipment financing, so your bet is really on farm spending staying alive.
how it gets paid
Last year Cnh Industrial N.V made $15.3B in revenue. Agriculture was the main engine at $10.9B, or 71% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 10.0% last year. All told, cnh thinks sales in the agriculture segment declined 11%-13% last year, while the construction division probably posted a 3%-5% drop in the top.
what just happened
CNH cleared a low bar, with EPS of $0.19 versus a $0.10 estimate, but the bigger story is still weak annual demand.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
40/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
24.3x trailing p/e — priced about right
3.1% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
6.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 58/100 — below average
What they do
CNH sells tractors, construction machines, and equipment financing, so your bet is really on farm spending staying alive.
CNH wins because farmers do not swap equipment brands like phone cases. Agriculture is 71% of 2024 revenue, and that installed base keeps pulling through parts, service, and financing. Financial Services means financing arm → lending for equipment purchases → so what: you sell the machine and the loan tied to it.
How they make money
$15.3B
annual revenue · their business grew -10.0% last year
Agriculture
$10.9B
Construction
$2.3B
Financial Services
$2.1B
The products that matter
farm and construction equipment tied to customer replacement cycles
Agricultural Machinery
$15.3B revenue
it's the only revenue line shown in this snapshot, and it shrank 10% last year. that's enough to tell you the story. this is less about a breakout product and more about whether end-market demand recovers.
cycle-driven
Key numbers
$27.1B
long-term debt
That is the number hanging over the story. Debt this large matters more when sales fell 10.0% and return on capital is only 6.0%.
24.3x
trailing p/e
You are paying 24.3 times trailing earnings for a company with projected -3.5% earnings growth. That is expensive for a cyclical name.
3.1%
dividend yield
The dividend pays you to wait, but waiting gets harder when Value Line's 18-month target is $10 versus a $10.93 stock price.
6.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the money used in the business → so what: 6.0% is not strong enough to make leverage feel comfortable.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 50 / 100
- long-term debt $27.1B (67% of capital)
- net profit margin 5.9% — keeps 6 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 14% — $0.14 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in CNH 3 years ago → it's now worth $6,840.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
CNH cleared a low bar, with EPS of $0.19 versus a $0.10 estimate, but the bigger story is still weak annual demand.
Yahoo Finance shows a 90.0% earnings surprise on the latest report. But EDGAR says annual revenue still fell 10.0% to $15.3B, and expects soft 2025 results with production cuts and lower channel inventory.
$10.9B
revenue
$0.34
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
The 10.0% annual revenue decline matters more than the quarterly EPS beat, because this is a cyclical equipment business and volume drives the story.
-
we think cnh industrial finished 2025 with soft results.
-
fourth-quarter revenues were probably flattish to up slightly compared to the previous-year tally.during the most recent earnings call in early november, management noted that the trading environment remained challenging for farmers and builders.
-
as a result, the company has been taking actions to navigate some of the near-term headwinds.
-
these include maintaining disciplined production levels and reducing channel inventories.these maneuvers, in turn, have led to the company producing fewer units in 2025 as compared to 2024.
-
all told, cnh thinks sales in the agriculture segment declined 11%-13% last year, while the construction division probably posted a 3%-5% drop in the top line.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the main risk is simple: CNH already has falling sales, a 4.6% net margin, and $27.1B in long-term debt. if the equipment cycle stays soft, those three facts stop being separate bullet points and start becoming the whole story.
high
end-market demand stays weak
annual revenue already fell 10% and q4 revenue fell 7% from last year. if dealers and customers keep delaying purchases, another soft year stops looking hypothetical.
with a 4.6% net margin, another revenue decline would likely hit EPS harder than sales
high
the debt load becomes the story
$27.1B in long-term debt equals 67% of capital. that's easier to live with when demand is healthy. it feels different when revenue and EPS are both falling.
heavy debt leaves you less room for patience if the downcycle lasts longer than expected
med
earnings stay hard to model
earnings predictability is 40/100, and q4 EPS fell 75% even though the company stayed profitable. that is not the profile of a smooth operator.
volatile quarters can keep the multiple from expanding even if the stock looks statistically cheap
med
valuation upside is already asking for proof
the stock trades at $10.93 while the analyst midpoint sits at $10. you are not getting a wide valuation discount if the rebound takes its time.
without better operating numbers, the stock can stay stuck near its $9–$11 range instead of rerating higher
when revenue falls 10% in a business keeping only 4.6 cents of profit per dollar, the downside is not abstract. it shows up quickly in earnings, and the debt load makes it matter more.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
trend
whether revenue stops shrinking
last year was down 10%, and q4 was down 7%. stabilization is the first sign that the cycle is turning.
metric
EPS versus the $0.55 estimate
if earnings keep missing that level, the stock is not as cheap as the headline multiple suggests.
risk
whether $27.1B in debt starts dominating the conversation
B++ balance sheet quality helps, but 67% debt to capital leaves less room if the downturn drags on.
calendar
the next earnings report more than analyst targets
with the stock already above the $10 midpoint, the next quarter matters more than another target tweak.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — the stock is behaving like the broader market. in human-speak, analysts do not see a strong near-term edge here.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — neither especially safe nor especially dangerous. the operating cycle is the real swing factor.
chart momentum
bottom 5%
technical score 5 — the lowest rating. the chart is telling you the market wants proof before it gives CNH credit.
earnings predictability
40 / 100
earnings are hard to forecast. that's another way of saying this is a cyclical industrial name, not a steady compounder.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
257 buyers vs. 259 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.9B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$6
$13
$11
current price
$10
target midpoint · 9% from current · 3-5yr high: $17 (+55% · 14% ann'l return)
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