Start here if you're new
what it is
CMS sells electricity and natural gas to most of lower Michigan, minus Detroit, through its Consumers Energy utility.
how it gets paid
Last year Cms Energy made $8.3B in revenue. gas utility and other was the main engine at $4.15B, or 50% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 13.5% last year. Revenue rose 12% vs. prior year to $2.23B.
what just happened
CMS posted Q4 EPS of $0.94, up 7% vs. prior year but below the $1.01 estimate.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
90/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
21.6x trailing p/e — priced about right
7.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 59/100 — below average
What they do
CMS sells electricity and natural gas to most of lower Michigan, minus Detroit, through its Consumers Energy utility.
CMS wins because you do not comparison-shop for power lines or gas pipes. Consumers Energy serves 1.9 million electric customers and 1.8 million gas customers in lower Michigan, excluding Detroit, according to the company description. Monopoly utility → one regulated provider in a territory → so what: if you live there, your monthly bill usually goes to CMS.
How they make money
$8.3B
annual revenue · their business grew +13.5% last year
electric residential
$1.95B
+10.0%
electric commercial
$1.37B
+10.0%
electric industrial
$0.58B
+10.0%
electric other
$0.25B
+10.0%
gas utility and other
$4.15B
+17.0%
The products that matter
regulated electric and gas distribution
Consumers Energy
$8.3B revenue · essential service
it's the entire $8.3B story. you are not buying a collection of side businesses. you are buying one regulated utility that keeps homes and businesses powered, heated, and billed every month.
core utility
Key numbers
$17.9B
long-term debt
That debt is 43% of capital, which tells you this safe-looking utility still runs on a lot of borrowed money.
20.8%
operating margin
Operating margin → money left after running the business → so what: CMS keeps about $0.21 from each revenue dollar before interest and taxes.
7.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the money tied up in the business → so what: this is a steady utility, not a machine that prints high returns.
90
predictability score
Earnings predictability at 90 means results have been unusually steady, which is exactly what many utility investors are paying for.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 100 / 100
- long-term debt $17.9B (43% of capital)
- return on equity 14% — $0.14 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — risk rank looks solid but long-term debt needs watching.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in CMS 3 years ago → it's now worth $13,930.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
CMS posted Q4 EPS of $0.94, up 7% vs. prior year but below the $1.01 estimate.
Revenue rose 12% vs. prior year to $2.23B, helped by a 10% increase in electric utility revenue and a 17% increase in gas utility revenue. The business kept growing, but the quarter still came in 6.93% light on EPS versus consensus.
$2.23B
revenue
$0.94
eps
20.8%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The key number was the 6.93% EPS miss, because regulated utilities usually trade on consistency and CMS came in below that bar.
-
cms energy ended 2025 on a solid note.
-
the top line rose 12% vs. prior year, to $2.23 billion, supported by a 10% increase in electric utility revenue and a 17% gain in gas utility revenue.
-
the bottom line advanced 7% over the year-ago period, to $0.94.on a full-year basis, revenue and share earnings clocked in at $8.54 billion and $3.53, respectively. the company secured several important regulatory approvals in 2025, strengthening its long-term business prospects.
-
this progress comes as its large-load pipeline has expanded to nine gigawatts (gw).a large load tariff, approved in november, ensures data centers pay their full share so existing residential customers don’t see price hikes.
-
in fact, management estimates that a one gw data center could reduce residential bills by approximately 2% by spreading fixed costs.in addition, cms has reached commercial terms under an extraordinary facilities agreement for its first one gw data center, targeting an in-service date as early as 2028. given that each gigawatt of incremental load may require between $2.5 billion and $5 billion in associated investment, the company appears well positioned to expand its capital plan. separately, the utility received approval for its 20-year renewable energy plan, which outlines approximately $14 billion in customer investment opportunities over the next decade and provides visibility into future solar and wind development.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is michigan rate-case pushback on electric and gas increases. this stock works when the regulatory compact works.
med
rate approvals slow down or get trimmed
CMS earns through an allowed-return model. If state regulators reject, delay, or shrink requested increases, the company still spends the capital but earns less on it.
that matters because 100% of the $8.3B revenue base sits inside the utility, and $17.9B of long-term debt still needs to be serviced.
med
capital spending outruns cost recovery
grid upgrades, reliability work, and clean-energy investment all demand cash up front. the business model assumes regulators let CMS earn on that spending later.
if recovery lags the buildout, returns get squeezed first. the multiple usually notices after that.
med
the 9 GW large-load pipeline stays a pipeline
data-center demand is the rare visible growth angle here. pipeline announcements are nice. connected load that turns into billed revenue is better.
if those projects slip or shrink, CMS goes back to being judged almost entirely on ordinary utility execution and modest rate-base growth.
100% of CMS's $8.3B revenue sits inside a regulated utility model, so slower approvals or weaker large-load conversion would hit growth where it actually lives.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
next rate order
The stock is easier to own when requested electric and gas increases keep getting approved on schedule. Delay is not fatal. Delay with heavy spending is the problem.
trend
large-load pipeline conversion
9 GW sounds impressive. the real question is how much of that pipeline becomes actual connected load with real billing attached.
metric
debt as a share of capital
It sits at 43% now. stable is fine. higher without a matching lift in earnings support changes the risk profile fast.
risk
valuation versus actual upside
With the midpoint target at $81 versus a $76.30 stock price, you are not being paid much to absorb a rate-case stumble.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts see a safe utility with limited room to surprise over the next year.
risk profile
above average
stability score 2 — safer than roughly 80% of stocks. that is why names like this end up in defensive portfolios.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the chart says investors are treating this like a slow compounder, not a rerating candidate.
earnings predictability
90 / 100
management tends to deliver what the market already expects. that helps trust, but it leaves less room for upside shocks.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 275 buyers vs. 264 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.3B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$68
$94
$76
current price
$81
target midpoint · +6% from current · 3-5yr high: $120 (+55% · 15% ann'l return)
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