Start here if you're new
what it is
Cummins builds engines, power systems, and parts for trucks, buses, ships, and backup power.
how it gets paid
Last year Cummins made $33.7B in revenue.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 1.3% last year. The $4.27 EPS miss mattered most because Cummins still trades at 25.0x trailing earnings.
what just happened
Cummins missed by 11.41%, with $4.27 per share versus $4.82 expected.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
85/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
25.0x trailing p/e — full multiple for a quality industrial compounder
1.4% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
17.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 81/100 — above average
What they do
Cummins builds engines, power systems, and parts for trucks, buses, ships, and backup power.
Cummins sells through 650 distributors and 19,000 dealers across 190 countries. That is a repair web, not a sales pitch. When your fleet is down, you want the nearest Cummins part, not a brand search.
How they make money
$33.7B
annual revenue · revenue declined -1.3% last year
total revenue
$33.7B
1.3%
The products that matter
builds diesel and natural gas engines
engines
core of a $33.7B business
This is still the backbone of the company, and the latest quarter showed the cyclicality: revenue fell to $8.3B and EPS dropped 34% from last year.
legacy cash engine
parts, service, and support
distribution network
19,000 locations · 190 countries
This is why the moat is real. A global service footprint across 190 countries makes downtime expensive for customers and switching more painful than a spreadsheet suggests.
the moat
electric and hydrogen systems
energy transition platforms
the story inside a $79B stock
This is the part the market wants to believe in. After a 55% run, investors are paying up before this page can show clean segment-level proof.
transition bet
Key numbers
17.0%
op margin
You keep 17 cents before interest and taxes on each sales dollar. That is a solid take in heavy equipment.
43%
foreign sales
Almost half the business lives outside the U.S. That spreads risk and currency noise together.
$6.8B
long-term debt
Debt is 8% of capital, so the balance sheet is carrying weight without looking fragile.
1.4%
dividend yield
The payout is small. You are buying earnings power, not a giant cash check.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 80 / 100
- long-term debt $6.8B (8% of capital)
- net profit margin 10.1% — keeps 10 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 20% — $0.20 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A with balance sheet grade and risk rank standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in CMI 3 years ago → it's now worth $24,700.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Cummins missed by 11.41%, with $4.27 per share versus $4.82 expected.
The $25.1B revenue line here is year-to-date through nine months (~75% of the ~$33.7B full-year total)— not the same slice as one ~$8.3B quarter in the product callout. Gross margin was 26.1%. The miss was not collapse; it was missing a high bar in a cyclical business.
$25.1B
nine-month revenue
$4.27
eps
26.1%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The $4.27 EPS miss mattered most because Cummins still trades at 25.0x trailing earnings. That is a pricey scorecard when the quarter comes up short.
-
cummins’ investors have reason to cheer.
-
a 35% rise in the value of cmi shares since our last report brings the 52-week surge to 55%, which exceeded the s&p 500’s nearly 15% increase during the same period.wall street’s embrace coincided with continued enthusiasm for the nuclear sector, as well as manufacturers of power equipment. concurrently, there is optimism that cyclical conditions within the company’s legacy engine business will improve while areas of strength will grow in importance during the new year.
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vigor in one category is supporting top- and bottom-line results.demand for products sold by the power systems and distribution businesses is underpinned by rising demand for backup power for data centers. vigor in this end market is helping cummins overcome weakness elsewhere, which in turn helps produce enviable levels of free cash flows.
-
myriad challenges continue to cast a large shadow over operations.
-
sharp declines in the north america heavyand medium-duty truck orders are hurting the engine and components businesses.
source: Yahoo Finance and EDGAR, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is emissions litigation tied to diesel engines.
high
emissions litigation
Cummins faces ongoing class action lawsuits tied to alleged emissions-control defeat software. This is not a headline nuisance. It is a legal and financial overhang tied to the core legacy business.
The page does not quantify the exposure, which is part of the problem. When the dollar amount is uncertain, the multiple usually absorbs the fear first.
med
truck-cycle downturn
Sharp declines in North America heavy- and medium-duty truck orders are already hurting the engine and components businesses. This is the classic cyclical risk, and the latest quarter showed it clearly.
Quarterly revenue fell 2% and EPS fell 34% from last year. If orders stay weak, profit can keep falling faster than sales.
med
transition expectations outrunning results
The market has rerated the stock as if electric, hydrogen, and power demand will carry the next leg of growth. The current page still shows a business with $33.7B in revenue that shrank 1.3% last year.
After a 55% one-year run and a 25.0x trailing P/E, disappointment would likely hit the valuation before it hits the dividend.
You own a strong industrial balance sheet, but the stock now needs both the truck cycle and the transition story to cooperate.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
the $35B revenue and $25.00 EPS setup
Those are the numbers embedded in next year's expectations. If Cummins does not grow into them, the rerating starts to look stretched.
trend
data-center backup power demand
Power systems and distribution have been getting real support from backup power demand. If that cools, one of the clearest offsets to truck weakness gets smaller.
risk
emissions litigation updates
This is the most company-specific overhang on the page. You want clarity, not a slow drip of legal uncertainty.
calendar
next earnings print
Another quarter around $8.3B of revenue with profit still far below last year would make the premium multiple harder to defend.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
outlook rank 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead. in human-speak: they still like it.
risk profile
above average
risk rank 2 — safer than roughly 80% of stocks. That's unusually calm for a cyclical industrial.
chart momentum
below average
momentum rank 4 — after the big run, analysts see near-term underperformance risk. Translation: the stock may need the business to catch up.
earnings predictability
85 / 100
Management usually gives reliable guidance. You are not dealing with a business that surprises the market every quarter.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 779 buyers vs. 661 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$348
$694
$570
current price
$521
target midpoint · 9% from current · 3-5yr high: $715 (+25% · 7% ann'l return)
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